I only wrote one post about the vice president issue and it was this one: “Edwards for Vice President“. Guess it worked.
I’m pleasantly surprised that Kerry had the good sense to do what seemed like the obviously best thing to do. For months, I’ve been joking with people that Edwards as vice president is such a good idea that of course Kerry will never do it. I couldn’t be happier to be proved wrong.
My views on why this move is likely to pay off haven’t changed much since I wrote the post linked to above, so allow me the liberty of quoting myself: I believe [Edwards] would make a substantial contribution to increasing the ticket’s appeal among white working class voters in culturally conservative swing states, especially where it is most necessary–outside of the unionized working class. Even if one assumes that Gephardt has appeal to the unionized rank-and-file of the working class, as opposed to labor leaders, that still leaves out the vast majority of the white working class–well over four-fifths. And it is among these non-unionized white working class voters that Democrats have had the most trouble and where Gore got really hammered in 2000.
One particular trouble spot is among those with some college–the upwardly striving working class. Because of severe underperformance among whites with this educational credential, Gore lost the group as a whole by 6 points in 2000. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, won them by 8 points in 1996.
If John Edwards can help Kerry get close to Bill Clinton’s 1996 performance with these voters, there’s the election.
2 comments on “Good Move, John Kerry!”
o m aguiar on
Just heard a hunch from a friend: Hispanics will be delighted to see Edwards on the ticket. Please verify.
Most of the comments by Democrats have been favorable, with only a handful of exceptions.
I don’t really agree with TNR’s Josh Benson (“Eyes of the Beholders”), though http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=benson070704
Benson thinks Kerry needs a VP with an appealing bio to woo ignorant “disengaged swing voters” who don’t know much about politics. His dream pick would be Wesley Clark (general…from Arkansas…war hero etc.). Well, I don’t think Clark would have worked. The Republicans would have a field day with *his* campaign flip-flops and his lack of political experience as well as lack of report with the Democratic base would be huge liabilities on the campaign trail.
MARCU$
This year’s big media narrative has been the confirmation saga of Neera Tanden, Biden’s nominee for director of the Office of Management and Budget. At New York I wrote about how over-heated the talk surrounding Tanden has become.
Okay, folks, this is getting ridiculous. When a vote in the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on the nomination of Neera Tanden was postponed earlier this week, you would have thought it presented an existential threat to the Biden presidency. “Scrutiny over Tanden’s selection has continued to build as the story over her uneven reception on Capitol Hill stretched through the week,” said one Washington Post story. Politico Playbook suggested that if Tanden didn’t recover, the brouhaha “has the potential to be what Biden might call a BFD.” There’sbeen all sorts of unintentionally funny speculation about whether the White House is playing some sort of “three-dimensional chess” in its handling of the confirmation, disguising a nefarious plan B or C.
Perhaps it reflects the law of supply and demand, which requires the inflation of any bit of trouble for Biden into a crisis. After all, his Cabinet nominees have been approved by the Senate with a minimum of 56 votes; the second-lowest level of support was 64 votes. One nominee who was the subject of all sorts of initial shrieking, Tom Vilsack, was confirmed with 92 Senate votes. Meanwhile, Congress is on track to approve the largest package of legislation moved by any president since at least the Reagan budget of 1981, with a lot of the work on it being conducted quietly in both chambers. Maybe if the bill hits some sort of roadblock, or if Republican fury at HHS nominee Xavier Becerra (whose confirmation has predictably become the big fundraising and mobilization vehicle for the GOP’s very loud anti-abortion constituency) reaches a certain decibel level, Tanden can get out of the spotlight for a bit.
But what’s really unfair — and beyond that, surreal — is the extent to which this confirmation is being treated as more important than all the others combined, or indeed, as a make-or-break moment for a presidency that has barely begun. It’s not. If Tanden cannot get confirmed, the Biden administration won’t miss a beat, and I am reasonably sure she will still have a distinguished future in public affairs (though perhaps one without much of a social-media presence). And if she is confirmed, we’ll all forget about the brouhaha and begin focusing on how she does the job, which she is, by all accounts, qualified to perform.
Just heard a hunch from a friend: Hispanics will be delighted to see Edwards on the ticket. Please verify.
Most of the comments by Democrats have been favorable, with only a handful of exceptions.
I don’t really agree with TNR’s Josh Benson (“Eyes of the Beholders”), though
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=benson070704
Benson thinks Kerry needs a VP with an appealing bio to woo ignorant “disengaged swing voters” who don’t know much about politics. His dream pick would be Wesley Clark (general…from Arkansas…war hero etc.). Well, I don’t think Clark would have worked. The Republicans would have a field day with *his* campaign flip-flops and his lack of political experience as well as lack of report with the Democratic base would be huge liabilities on the campaign trail.
MARCU$