December 5: A Field Guide to MAGA Excuses for the Toddler President
Don’t know if this post from New York about Trump’s immaturity will get me onto the White House list of enemy media, but there’s a chance.
Veteran political journalist Jonathan Martin has a new rant at Politico Magazine with the self-explanatory headline: “The President Who Never Grew Up.” Nothing he said is the least bit revelatory; it’s all about things we know Donald Trump has done and said but lined up in a way that illustrates how very much the president resembles a child, and a not-very-well-behaved child at that. A sample:
Trump is living his best life in this second and final turn in the White House. Coming up on one year back in power, he’s turned the office into an adult fantasy camp, a Tom Hanks-in-Big, ice-cream-for-dinner escapade posing as a presidency.
The brazen corruption, near-daily vulgarity and handing out pardons like lollipops is impossible to ignore and deserves the scorn of history. Yet how the president is spending much of his time reveals his flippant attitude toward his second term. This is free-range Trump. And the country has never seen such an indulgent head of state.
Yes, he’s one-part Viktor Orbán, making a mockery of the rule of law and wielding state power to reward friends and punish foes while eroding institutions.
But he’s also a 12-year-old boy: There’s fun trips, lots of screen time, playing with toys, reliable kids’ menus and cool gifts under the tree — no socks or trapper keepers.
Martin is just scratching the surface here. He doesn’t even mention the president’s inability to admit or accept responsibility for mistakes, which is reminiscent of an excuse-making child, or his tendency to fabricate his own set of “facts” like an incessant daydreamer bored by kindergarten. Now to be clear, the essentially juvenile nature of many of Trump’s preoccupations and impulses has struck just about everybody who’s forced to watch him closely and isn’t inclined by party or ideology to jump into the sandbox with him to share the fun. But since he’s the president, it’s more seemly for critics to focus on problems deeper than immaturity. There are the many worrisome “isms” he is prone to embrace or reflect (nativism, racism, sexism, authoritarianism, jingoism, cronyism, nepotism). And there’s also his habit of surrounding himself with cartoon villains like Pete Hegseth, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel, Stephen Miller, and J.D. Vance who are the stuff of grown-up nightmares.
But still, I find myself wondering regularly how Trump’s own followers process his rather blatant lack of seriousness about the most serious job on the planet. If there’s such a thing as negative gravitas, the toddler president has it in abundance. So what are the excuses MAGA folk make for him? There are five major rationalizations that come to mind:
Whenever he says something especially outrageous or embarrassing, we are quickly told by his defenders that he’s just having an enormous joke at the expense of humorless liberals. This dates back to pro-Trump journalist Salena Zito’s famous 2016 dictum that his followers “take him seriously but not literally.” Where you draw the line between the stuff he means and the stuff he’s just kidding about can obviously be adjusted to cover any lapses in taste or honesty he might betray. The “he’s just trolling the libs” defense is a useful bit of jiujitsu as it happens. It turns the self-righteousness of his critics into foolishness while neutering any fears that whatever nasty or malicious thing Trump has said reflects his true nature and inclinations. You see this tactic a lot with Trumpworld social-media takes on mass deportation that exhibit what some have called “performative cruelty” in depicting ICE violence against immigrants, which predictably shock liberals who are then mocked for not understanding it’s all a shuck. Meanwhile, the most radical of Trump’s MAGA fans bask in the administration’s appropriation of their worst impulses.
A second rationalization you hear from Trump’s defenders, particularly when he says or does something that makes no sense, is to argue that he’s operating on multiple levels that include some higher strategies his critics simply don’t have the mental bandwidth to grasp. If, for example, he insults a foreign leader, he may secretly be setting off a diplomatic chain reaction that results in foreign-policy gains somewhere else. Similarly, if he defames federal judges, Democratic elected officials, or mainstream journalists, he may simply be trying to manipulate public opinion in a sophisticated way to overcome those who thwart or undermine his substantive agenda. Trump himself set the template for the “chess not checkers” theory by telling us his most incoherent speeches and statements reflect a novel rhetorical style he calls “the weave.” You do have to admire his chutzpah in telling people they simply aren’t smart enough to follow him as he fails to complete thoughts and sentences.
An even more common excuse for Trump’s worst traits is that he is focused on communicating with the people, not the media or other snooty elites. If he’s crude or impulsive or irrational, so, too, are the people. As one liberal writer ruefully admitted of Trump circa 2016:
He liked fast food and sports and, most importantly, he shared all their gripes and complaints and articulated them in the same terms some used themselves. For all his crowing about his money and showing off, he really didn’t put on airs. He was just like them.
And he behaved just like they would if they were given a billion dollars and unlimited power. Thus his childishness and even his cruelty could be construed as efforts to meld minds with the sovereign public or, at least, key parts of it. This became most explicit in 2024 when Trump’s crudeness and fury about diversity were transformed into a shrew pitch for the support of the “manosphere” and the masses of politically volatile younger men who spend much of their lives there. It could even serve as an excuse for his destruction of the White House as we’ve known it. Gold plating of everything in sight and the construction of a huge, garish ballroom might disgust aesthetes and history buffs with postgraduate degrees and no common sense. But with the White House set to become a venue for UFC fights, why not go big and loud? Nobody elected architecture experts to run the country, did they?
A parallel excuse for Trump’s uncouthness is that transgressions are central to his mission. He’s there to overturn the Establishment, not respect its silly rules of what’s appropriate for presidents. His distractors ruined the country, so who are they to complain when it requires someone unconventional to set things aright? Trump campaigned in 2016, 2020, and 2024 as a disrupter and thrilled his followers by refusing to be domesticated in office. When returned to power most recently, he hit Washington like a gale-force wind defying all precedents and expressing an exasperated public’s disgust with the status quo and the people who led it. So why would anyone expect this Robespierre to play by the rules of Versailles? That’s not who he is and not what he was elected to do.
The president himself has best articulated the standard by which he judges himself and expects to be judged by his followers, and by history, in a Truth Social post this past February: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.” From the MAGA point of view, the 47th president is bending history, reversing a long trend toward national decline, and raising the economic aspirations and moral values of America to heights thought to be long lost. Perhaps the most powerful rationalization for Trump’s many excesses ever written was the famous 2016 essay by Michael Anton comparing those supporting Trump’s challenge to Hillary Clinton to the desperate and self-sacrificing passengers of the hijacked September 11 flight that brought the plane down by rushing the terrorists in the cockpit:
[I]f you don’t try, death is certain. To compound the metaphor: a Hillary Clinton presidency is Russian Roulette with a semi-auto. With Trump, at least you can spin the cylinder and take your chances.
It’s Trump, warts and all, or the abyss, to many Trump fans, today as in 2016. So if he wants to have some boyish fun while he’s saving America, and perhaps civilization, who are we to deny him?
Then we can be friends again *hugs*
Ruy. Ruy. Ruy. There…got it now. Pardon…
Well he’s going to be insulted and take his polls and go home if you call him “Rux.”
Oh by the way, according to Judis and Dryer (Marshall’s tech) Ruy will be doing a stint over at Talkingpointsmemo in a few days.
There are enough polls out there to satisfy just about everyone…some to give you relief, some to scare the hell out of you.
The EDM site is usually a good place to visit for a pro-Dem view, and no doubt there have been good reasons to be optimistic with developments over the past couple of months.
Another site I check occasionally is the Electoral Predictor 2004 site — http://www.electoral-vote.com — which breaks out the different states. It has been good for Blue for weeks…until today! Ouch. Suddenly it registers Bush in the Electoral vote lead. All that Kerry needs is a swing in Michigan, which is doable, but I am a bit distressed to see the recent polls show an upswing for Red.
Looks like a lot of the 6/22 data is based on Zogby.
I’d be interested to see if Rux or anyone would like to comment.
I dug into the data in the ABC/WaPo poll, and I immediately noticed something that the Post story ignored: On question after question, Bush is doing fairly well in the South and absolutely HORRIBLY everywhere else. Sometimes the Midwest numbers are closer to those for the East and West, but most of the time the other three regions are very heavily weighted towards Kerry and the Democrats. If this is accurate, and continues until November, it could mean an Electoral College blowout of near-1964 proportions, even if the popular vote is much closer. And if Democrats outside the South can nationalize this election, perhaps it is an opportunity to take seats from Republicans in Congress who vote with Bush again and again, despite their constituents’ opposition to him.
I don’t put much faith in the Harris poll. It’s an interactive poll, not the typical ones we hear about. In fact, I don’t put much faith in polls that count “likely voters” rather than “registered voters.” I mean, it’s so subjective anyway. How do they know who is going to vote or not? This was one of the reasons the polls were so skewed in favor of Bush before the 2000 election. The fact that “likely voters” tend to push up Bush’s numbers by 6% or so is a clear reason to believe that most of these pollsters believe that more Republicans will vote instead of Democrats.
What on Earth makes them believe that? Everything I have seen so far shows a Democratic base which is far more energized than the Republican base.
The other polls showing “Bush ahead” are usually within 1 or 2%. Or the margin of error, and again using the “likely voter”. There have been more than enough polls to show the opposite for any reasonable person to believe that Bush is ahead at this point.
The one thing that strikes me about every poll – regardless of Bush being ahead or behind is the fact that he seems to always poll at 44%.
Notice that, he polls at 44%. So some polls will show him ahead of Kerry: 44% to 41%, while others will show Bush behind 47% to 44%, but the constant is always Bush at 44%.
I believe that 44% is a ceiling for Bush. The undecideds always go to the challenger. THEY ALWAYS DO. That means this election is not as close as “polls” have us believe.
Remember Carter 1980. In 1980, Carter and Reagan were actually “tied” according to polls throughout most of the year. With the exception of the “Republican bounce” after their convention in Detroit. When Reagan took a 12% lead.
But had Democrats looked at the polls more closely they would have seen a situation where Carter was polling at about 40 to 42% consistently. With Reagan polling at about the same and John Anderson polling at about 15%.
The Anderson vote collapsed in the end to 8% – which was still a good showing for a third party candidate. Carter’s vote stuck at about 41% and Reagan’s vote “surged” to 51%.
The mistake that Carter made. The same mistake Bush/Rove make now and (if you are following it) the same mistake that Paul Martin is making in Canada right now. Is that these incumbants believe that the election is about the challenger, when in fact an election IS ALWAYS about the incumbant.
Carter went around telling people how crazy Reagan was. This supressed Reagan’s potential vote for a time, as people decided to wait to hear more from him. The two times they got to see and gauge Reagan for themselves: The Republican convention and after the debates – Reagan’s lead jumped to 10% or so. Which is what he finished with.
The same was true of Bob Dole in 1996. He trailed Clinton by double-digits throughout most of that campaign, but in the end after the GOP convention and after the debates he “picked up” to a 6 to 8% deficit. He ended up losing by 8%.
So the best gauge for Kerry will come after the Democratic convention. When the “undecideds” really get a look at him. If his numbers jump and he leads Bush by 10% or more after that, I think it is fair to say the election is over and Kerry will win substantially.
P.S. Some people may wonder about 1992. The same dynamic was true then as well. Clinton came out of the Democratic convention with a 18% lead. But that was without Perot in the race, who had dropped out a few days earlier.
Once Perot was back in the race, Clinton’s numbers were the ones affected. Especially after the debate. The myth that Perot cost Bush the election is just that – a myth. Had Perot not been in the race, Clinton would have won a substantial double-digit landslide.
Right now http://www.intrade.com has Bush a 58% chance of winning re-election based on current wagers/betting.This is true capitalism at its best.I wonder how accurate it will prove? Time will tell
All major polls are tracked at:
http://www.pollingreport.com
For some discussion that may help you put the ABC-WashingtonPost poll in context (and more generally, to help understand poll bias) see:
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/bushjob/bushjob.html#head2head
2.004k.com now shows Kerry with 270 electoral votes, based on current polls:
http://2.004k.com/trend/
Pollkatz url is
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/index.html
For all polls, try Prof. Pollkatz.
> You guys are hilarious.You don’t bother to mention
> the latest NPR,Harris,or AP polls that show Bush
> starting to develop a small lead.
Is there any website that tracks *all* important polls?
—
I compiled the following chart four years ago:
http://www.abo.fi/~mlindroo/armagddn/bushgore1.gif
MARCU$
You guys are hilarious.You don’t bother to mention the latest NPR,Harris,or AP polls that show Bush starting to develop a small lead.At worst for Bush,it is a dead heat right now.Let’s be a little more honest guys.
These polls are very promising, but before we rush to Kerry’s coronation it is important to recall how small his margins are in most purple states. One or two shifts in events could move these numbers–in either direction. And June 30 could well be a plus for Bush. While the situation there is chaotic and will probably get worse, US casualties are likely to decline since US troops have pulled back in so many tough cities and simply turned control over to warlords, Baathists or fundamentalists like Sadr. I fear that American voters may well be easily duped into reading such a situation as “success.”
And don’t forget Bin Laden. He’s surely in Karl Rove’s basement waiting to be pulled out for the cameras in an October surprise.
T.J.
> Any more bounces like this one and John Kerry
> may not have to bother to campaign at all.
That is priceless. Great to have you back, Ruy.
A couple of points:
1) A June 30 handover of power that goes well will give Bush a bounce, and it may be significant. If the handover occurs and things remain as muddled and dangerous over there, or get worse, as they are now, look for a drop. The Bushies have put so much into the June 30 date that it will be a big deal when it happens. I expect a big buildup over it in the next week if they expect it to go well or it will be sotto voce if they realize it will be a disaster.
2) I’ve always been an independent until this year. I joined the Democratic Party, joined a Democratic Club, and have been working actively for the successofmy local Dem pols and for Kerry. I met a lot of people in the Dem Club who say exactly what I said when I joined, that Bush made me a hardcore Democrat and Bush made me become active after so many years away from active participation in politics (I always voted, but I was only an activist for a little while during and after college). I think Bush has done more to energize his NOT base than to energize his base. Every sop he throws to his base is like he’s yanking meet off the table of the independents as they see where his real priorities lie.
Well, I am pleasantly surprised that the “Reagan bump” so far has turned out to be (at best-) extremy small. In fact, it isn’t even visible in most polls! I guess this proves that the several months’ long backlog of negative news for “Shrub” won’t be erased from the minds of voters overnight. Hopefully, this also means it will take a long time before voters start thinking positively about the economy…
BTW, there seems to be some speculation about whether Clinton’s memoirs (and his re-emergence on the national stage) will help or hurt Kerry. I still hope and believe the former is more likely, although TNR’s Jonathan Chait worries that it will allow Republicans to draw attention to Monicagate etc. contrasting the squeaky-clean moral certitude of “Shrub”. Yeah, right. The only people who prefer the peace and prosperity of the 1990s to today’s “moral clarity” are Republicans. I think independent voters increasingly will appreciate Clinton’s legacy as the memory of Ken Starr, Lewinsky & co. starts to fade. Unlike in 2000, “Slick Bill” will probably be campaigning hard for the Democratic candidate and it won’t be as controversial as it was four years ago. Another reason to feel optimistic about Kerry’s chances e.g. in Arkansas.
MARCU$
Is it possible to think that we could be witnessing the collapse of the (R)s? Despite absolutely horrible performance governing, they have held together support due to nationalistic tendencies brought on by 9-11, and exploited in the war on terorrism. Despite this, the electorate seemed relatively even. Now, as the fog of war lifts and the raising-alert-level-to-orange trick loses its effectiveness, the electorate is beginning to digest the governing record. The coming demographics are, as Ruy has ably shown, a disaster for (R)s (especially the kind running things now). If it looks like the USS Bush the Smaler is sinking, and sinking fast, what is going to happen to the moderate (R)s in Blue or Purple states?
If the Texas Republicans lose their Mojo what are they going to run on?
Moderate (R)s have been overridden by the more extreme members of their caucus.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll is another prime example of Independents and their role in moving this election decidedly in Kerry’s direction. The Washington Post website has a tool where you can observe every question/response through various demographics, including party ID. It’s breathtaking to see just how much Independent voters dislike Bush. It’s also quite evident that while Republicans are almost completely in Bush’s corner (and the source of almost all of his support in the poll), Kerry still has room to grow among Democrats. I am confident that Kerry’s Democratic support will grow once their convention has celebrated him for four full days (as always happens to the party nominee). Things are looking promising indeed…
By the way, according to the poll, public interest in the election right now is equal to the public’s interest three WEEKS before the 2000 election. Don’t be surprised to see high ratings for the Democratic Convention next month.
Well I don’t get it. I read this blog and always it seems like good news, but any poll from any mainstream media shows Bush/Kerry even or Bush slightly ahead.
Like this: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/election-test-fl,1,4869427.flash?coll=la-util-elect2004
What gives?
Jon Stewart was on fire tonight guys. If you guys want talking point watch tonights episode of Comdey Central the Interview of Stephen Hayes 6/21/04
Chalk another one up for Jon Stewart
I saw it. Stephen (never heard of the guy before) Hayes was speechless and not becasue he didn’t get a chance to speak, but because his arguement was soooo weak. As weird as it may sound but I actually felt pitty for him. Within his circles (neocons) his arguement probably made all the sense in the world, but when put to the test … and believe me if the Daily Show could debunk Hayes and the neocons arguements (with so little effort) just imagine how weak the neocons positions are. In that interview Hayes himself looked like he might have changed his mind (but then again neocons never do even when their wrong)
Chalk another one up for Jon Stewart. Something that’s beyond the capability of the media and journalists. Why is this???
Stewart also pointed out two of Cheney’s and Bushes biggest lies that they denied sayingbut as always Jon has the incriminating video.
Go to Comedy Central to see the two lies this episode will be up soon. It’ll probably be posted on 6/20. Go here http://www.comedycentral.com/tv_shows/thedailyshowwithjonstewart/videos.jhtml
Jon Stewart said something to this effect
Jon Stewart:
“Here’s the problem with preemption, here’s 4 justifications for it.
1] Weapon’s of mass destruction
2] Inflammatory rhetoric against the US
3] Harbors terrorists
4] oppresses its own people
Given these four things, you can’t tell me which countries actually engage in them.”
Stephen Hayes: “UHHH, Good Point”.
“It would seem that the public’s increased misgivings about Bush’s performance are making the Clinton era, despite Clinton’s personal foibles, look pretty good by comparison.”
Like The Onion said when Shrub took office: At last our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is over.