For a while there, the independent ticket of ex-Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan seemed to be taking crucial votes away from Democrat Joe Biden, at least as indicated by comparing three-way and five-way (with Cornel West and Jill Stein) polls to head-to-head matchups of the incumbent and Donald Trump. Now, even as Biden has all but erased his polling deficit against Trump, he’s getting some more good news in surveys that include other candidates.
Two recent major national polls show Biden running better in a five-way than a two-way race. According to NBC News, Biden moves from two points down to two points up when the non-major-party candidates are included. In the latest Marist poll, Biden leads Trump by three points head-to-head and by five points in a five-way race. Since left-bent candidates West and Stein are pulling 5 percent in the former poll and 4 percent in the latter (presumably taking very few votes from Trump), you have to figure Kennedy is beginning to cut into the MAGA vote to an extent that should get Team Trump’s attention. And it has, NBC News reports:
“Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he’s confident that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will pull more votes away from President Joe Biden than from him — a net win for the Republican’s candidacy.
“’He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine,’Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. ‘I love that he is running!’
“Behind closed doors, however, Trump is less sure. A Republican who was in the room with Trump this year as he reviewed polling said Trump was unsure how Kennedy would affect the race, asking the other people on hand whether or not Kennedy was actually good for his candidacy.”
Politico notes that Kennedy is drawing higher favorability numbers from Republican voters than from Democratic ones, which could indicate a higher ceiling for RFJ Jr. among Trump defectors. And it’s generally assumed from his past performances that there is a lower ceiling on Trump’s support than on Biden’s; he needs to be able to win with significantly less than a majority of the popular vote, as one Republican told Politico:
“’If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,’ Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. ‘They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.’”
One likely reason that Kennedy could be appealing to Republicans is the residual effect from the positive attention he received from conservative media when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primaries; his identification with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories also resonates more positively on the right side of the political spectrum than the left. So it’s in the interest of Team Trump to begin telling the former president’s sympathizers that RFK Jr. is actually a lefty, and that started happening recently, as the New York Times reported: “Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pointed in particular to Mr. Kennedy’s views on climate change and the environment, writing on his social media site that Mr. Kennedy was more ‘radical Left’ than Mr. Biden.”
The idea, of course, is not only to discourage potential Trump voters from drifting toward the independent candidate, but to encourage potential Biden voters to consider a Kennedy vote.
If Kennedy continues to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, each of their campaigns will need to make a strategic decision about how to deal with him: Do you ignore him and count on the usual fade in support afflicting non-major-party presidential candidates as Election Day nears, or do you attack him as too far left (if you’re Trump) or too far right (if you’re Biden) and try to make him a handicap to your major-party opponent? The more aggressive approach has become common among Democrats seeking to intervene in Republican primaries (or in the recent case of the California Senate race, a nonpartisan top-two primary) by loudly attacking candidates they’d prefer to face in the general election, encouraging Republicans to flock to the supposed menace to progressivism. This kind of tactic — if deployed with some serious dollars — could have an effect on Kennedy’s base of support.
Certainly Trump seems to be considering it. With his usual practice of saying the quiet part out loud, Trump opined: “If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden, because he’s frankly more in line with Democrats.”
Trying to minimize losses to Kennedy and maximize opposite-party votes for Kennedy could become a routine practice down the stretch. Where and by whom this strategy is pursued will depend in part on where RFK Jr. is ultimately on the ballot. Right now he has nailed down ballot access in just two states, Utah and Michigan. CBS News reports the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is close to securing a spot on the November ballot in a number of other states:
“Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
“The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.”
Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. But if it begins to look like RFK Jr. has become an existential threat to Democrats or to Republicans, you can bet they’ll go medieval on him without even a moment’s hesitation.
Guess young people react differently….
Washington, D.C. – Sen. John Kerry, who once held a commanding, double-digit advantage over President George W. Bush among young Americans, now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with the president among voters aged 18-29, according to the latest IPSOS/NEWSWEEK/GENEXT poll. While Kerry currently leads Bush within the margin of error, 45 percent to 42 percent, back in February 56 percent of 18-29 year-olds said they supported the senator versus 42 percent who said they would vote for Bush.
I don’t think Bush will have a landslide, but he will win by a comfortable margin. It’s a given that Republicans will pick up seats in the House, and in the Senate as well. There is no real alternative for voters. The media lies to them, and the Democrats are running on, “hey, we’re not Bush!!” People will always go for the devil they know.
I am delighted with the 8 point drop in “good at war on terrorism” survey item. I am looking forward to the next poll publication on a like item for confirmation that this is a confirmed trend downward, and that the rate of decline graphs like a steep canyon cliff.
What is even more satisfying about all this is that the decline is not at Kerry’s hand — the pornographic slide show out of Iraqi Prisons can be argued as caused by Bush’s failure to faithfully execute the laws (and Geneva Treaties on War Crimes and the like are the equal of laws). That’s the message we have to communicate in all sorts of ways over the next weeks as we get the “second showing” and as a few more matters come home to roost — perhaps a Plame indictment, 911 investigative matters, and who knows what else. Just as long as it goes to the question of whether Bush is doing a proper job fighting terrorists — or it can be comprehended that way — that voting issue trend line ought to keep going down. Come late July and the convention, then Kerry can start interpreting it all as part of the real campaign.
I agree with James. Bush owns the media, not in a literal sense, but through intimidation. Look for the Dems to loose even more seats in the senate/house, and a Bush landslide.
This is only one poll; all the others have Bush in the lead. Given the public’s strong sympathy towards Rumsfeld (70% want him to stay), and the media’s success at lying to people about the economy and blaming the prison abuses all on this England girl, I think that you will see Bush’s support go way up again in the next few months.
which of Kerry’s possible VP choices would leave him in the best position in the home stretch?
Wes Clark. He’s the one who can restore dignity to the military, ensure proper measure of attention to war on terror, and he’s got the leadership credentials.
Cheney wouldn’t have a chance against Clark.
bt: They didn’t count them correctly last time so I have no illusion that they will count them correctly this time. We need to make such an overwhelming victory that even their slight of hand will not be enough to overcome our will.
Tripsarecopsem in his/her post above (inquiring about a Diebold Correction Factor) voiced one of my other questions about assumptions underlying the analysis of the promising poll data.
An editorial in today’s Washington Post, and news articles in the Post yesterday and the day before outline grounds for concern about whether we’ll count the votes correctly this time.
All very well. But if the rising tide doesn’t sweep in Democratic legislators, isn’t it only limited good news?
Don’t get me wrong. I am not suggesting anyone in the bush admin knew about the 9-11 attacks in advance. But they did know that something was up. They were informed by more than one vehicle about plans and possibilties.
Let’s all pray that we can have a civilized change of power come November/January. Shrub & company already can see the writing on the wall. I only hope that what they do is not so awful that we and the world cannot recover. When you look at the 9-11 crisis and you look at all the facts surrounding that event before and after it occured you have to wonder if there was a certain amount of complacency by an administration hell bent on finding any justification to take Iraq’a oil for their own and establish a mighty American presence in Israel back yard. The facts could just support a theory like this is all I’m saying. Right after the attack, they were all over Iraq, how convenient.
So what might happen next to bolster their hold on power?
The track record is clear. Starting with the 2000 election, then the ignoring of the warnings about the pending terrorist attacks, then the falsification of the Iraq war reasons, followed by the ill advised and poorly followed up war. Now they’re into their attack mode against a genuine American Hero. We mean nothing to these people. They are only concerned with their own power and the control that goes with it.
> It is good news, and the only discouraging part
> of it is that I can’t understand why Bush’s
> numbers aren’t way, way down by now. Guess
> it’s the red meat Republicans who will never,
> ever vote for a Democrat.
Probably GOPpers who support him because they think he shares their religious/moral “values” and like him personally.
: In how many states will Nader actually appear on
: the ballot? When will we know if he’s gotten the
: signatures or whatever? As an independent
: instead of a Green, he doesn’t get on
: automatically, I believe. I understood he was
: working first on getting on the ballots in the
: non-purple states (Texas, New York) where he
: could rack up votes without changing any actual
: outcomes.
Maybe Kerry could promise him a position in his Administration if he goes along with that? Or would Congress most likely throw up roadblocks, much as Gale(sp) Anne Norton and Ashcroft almost didn’t make it for “Shrub” in 2001?
| no matter whether you agree or disagree with
| the ideology of the Bush administration (or agree
| with it more than that of Kerry) it is absolutely
| true that Bush & Co are incompetent.
Well, these guys are good at only one thing — pandering to their dumb base (on style if not substance). You have to give them credit for being well organized and very focused/ruthless. But if you look at their track record e.g. in Iraq and foreign policy in general, we are possibly talking about the most inept Administration in a century. All the more surprising considering how respectably Bush v.41 fared in this respect.
MARCU$
Hopeful signs, Ruy. This is no time, however, to forget:
DIEBOLD IS A VERB.
No polls are being published with any kind of Diebold Correction Factor, anywhere, are they?
Kerry is looking better at the moment, but he still needs to give the voters a solid reason to vote FOR him.
This is why the VP choice can be critical in that regard.
Assume that the economy will–barring the unexpected–continue to improve for the next six months. Kerry’s relative advantages in that area will largely evaporate.
Assume that the Iraqi mess will drag on and on, possibly with further complications in the Middle East. Bush’s relative advantages in the foreign policy and security areas will evaporate.
Given those assumptions–leaving out possible bombshells such as another 9/11 or a Bin Laden capture–which of Kerry’s possible VP choices would leave him in the best position in the home stretch?
Any opinions?
On the topic of predictions, Kerry will win i can feel it. At this point, Kerry is doing exactly what he should. If he were to start jumping all over Bush, Kerry will become cliche by the time the election season is really here. The public would be sick of hearing about it all sort of like my feelings towards all of the current big name trials. Kerry recently put out several advertisements meant to begin painting a picture of him from his side, or that don’t lie. No matter what comes out about Bush, the American people (generally) have become attached to him as a leader due to all of the major events over the last 4 years. Kerry needs to continue to increase his positive exposure over the next few months, giving the people an alternative to Bush and what he has gotten us into. Closer to the election, negative bush adds will drill home the point.
There you go, thats my opinion
To add to bt’s comments, it seems to me that the few Bush supporters I regularly bump into are either Democrat-haters to the core (the immobile base), or else feel like they have to justify their opinion. Many of them say they’re for Bush and then launch into a justification without even being asked for one, as if they’re embarassed to like Bush.
I frankly think Bush’s tactic of appealing almost exclusively to his base is preposterous. But if he’s determined to alienate moderates, far be it from me to tell him to stop.
Well, if the response to the Abu Ghraib outrages is any indication, you may be right, Billy Boy. This could be the straw that breaks the Administration’s back. We’ll see what the next round of polls show, but I would not be surprised if there is a strong shift. Rush Limbaugh seems to be about the only American who is expressing anything other than outrage and/or shame. If Rumsfeld is fired it will be a sign of how desperate the Administration feels.
It seems as though a lot of Bush supporters like him because they think he does our country proud. As the pride turns to shame, a lot of his supporters are going to start bailing or cloaking their support for him.
re: “Personally, I prefer to “run scared”. Not as in projecting lack of confidence that we will win, but as in believing in the importance of any and all efforts to help. To a fellow Dem friend who told me two months ago he was feeling a lack of inspiration to work hard to help Kerry my response consisted of two words: find some.”
I sez:
I don’t think it matters. I think there is a LOT of anger out there towards Bush, and the media has had their finger in the dike trying desperately to cover it over. But the worm has turned, and I think we will see a large Democratic turn out, and I do believe we will have a Kerry landslide in November.
We will probably win back the Senate as well. I think the electorate is tired of the Republican swindle.
If you look at those polls you’ll see there’s a large number of “undecideds”. IMO, a goodly portion of those people are those who are not real happy with Bush, but who aren’t sure that Kerry is any better. If Kerry can convince them he’ll do a better job, he’ll get those votes. If he fails to do that, Bush will be back (shudder). At this point, I think it’s all up to Kerry. And us. We need to help. If you haven’t volunteered or sent money, do it now :-}
I see no reason for our side to be pessimistic about our chances at this point. One of the reasons I come to this site is for the refreshing dose of grounded optimism it provides.
Having said that, would it be better for us to “run scared”? If there arises a strong belief that our side is going to win easily, how likely is it that this would result in a net diminution of effort on our side? The same question could of course be raised at least as pointedly with respect to attitudes of deep pessimism or fatalism.
Campaigns often seem to be at pains late in the game to say they expect it to be a close election. In part, they say these things out of a perception that overconfidence could discourage effort all the way to the finish line from their supporters. But that doesn’t mean there’s reason to believe that less effort is likely absent such statements. Which is why I raise the question.
Personally, I prefer to “run scared”. Not as in projecting lack of confidence that we will win, but as in believing in the importance of any and all efforts to help. To a fellow Dem friend who told me two months ago he was feeling a lack of inspiration to work hard to help Kerry my response consisted of two words: find some.
I believe there is going to be a TIPPING POINT and when it happens and I think it’s close, I hope Kerry is ready to seize the ball and run with it.
“In an LV Kerry-Bush-Nader matchup . . .”
Relevant question:
In how many states will Nader actually appear on the ballot? When will we know if he’s gotten the signatures or whatever? As an independent instead of a Green, he doesn’t get on automatically, I believe. I understood he was working first on getting on the ballots in the non-purple states (Texas, New York) where he could rack up votes without changing any actual outcomes.
It is good news, and the only discouraging part of it is that I can’t understand why Bush’s numbers aren’t way, way down by now. Guess it’s the red meat Republicans who will never, ever vote for a Democrat.
I also worry about what this administration will do when it becomes increasingly obvious that Bush might lose. I may lose credibility when I say this, but I do see this administration as neo-fascist, and I wouldn’t put much past them – even manufacturing a domestic crisis and then postponing the election. Crazy? Yes, but worrisome.
The issue that is most encouraging to me is competence. In the last two days I have spoken with two lifelong, albeit moderate, Republicans. Both of them agree that no matter whether you agree or disagree with the ideology of the Bush administration (or agree with it more than that of Kerry) it is absolutely true that Bush & Co are incompetent. Both of these people then point out that this is completely consistent with Shrub’s entire life, where he has never done anything well. These are both people who voted for him in 2000 and will not do so again. One will vote for Kerry, the other will stay home. It is astounding to me how readily and completely these Republicans agree that Bush is incompetent. Not the slightest argument. I am beginning to think that even a recovering economy or the capture of Osama could not change that perception. Bye bye Shrub!
One final comment. I think that everyone who reads this site (and similar sites) should copy the article about Kerry winning in a landslide and send it to their local new outlets. The more the press publicizes this, the more it becomes the conventional wisdom and the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I wonder how long it will be until ShrubCo feels the need to follow the “Spiderman 2” approach and buy ads on 1st, 2nd and 3rd bases for a weekend? Or will MLB just give that away.
We have talked a bit about Democrats’ panic. Have we thought much about what will happen when the neocon/wingnut Republicans panic? This goes on they will. And they have been shown to be willing to do anything to hang on to power.
definitely good news. looks like kerry definitely has his window of opportunity.
the most promising results of the poll—-for kerry—-seem to be the ever-declining numbers for bush’s handling of the “war on terror.” once those numbers slip below 50% in any significant way, look for the bush bubble to finally burst.
Bush is caught in a riptide.
Swim harder George!
What is one good thing that bush can say he’s done?………………………..that he could get a majority of people to agree with?……………………………………give up?????
Nothing, not a single thing that’s what.
He trails in all the important catagories that Ruy has listed here. That will be the tale of the tape when people vote this November.
Thanks Ruy!!!!
Does it for me!! Thanks.
First!!!
No, seriously…this really does cheer me up. I’ve noticed that Bush has been going down while kerry stays about the same. That ought to change as Kerry gets his own message out. That’s why i think the new biographical ads are so wonderful.
It seems to me that people are hungry for an optimistic “morning sunshine” campaign, one that gives a positive vision rather than just trash talking the other guy. Kerry can afford to do that now that the Bush Administration is being it’s own Democrat-run attack ad.