Keeping up with the norms being violated by the second Trump administration is tough, but I did write about an important one this week at New York:
Donald Trump and Stephen Miller have an arithmetic problem with their mass-deportation initiative. They appear frantic to ramp up deportations. Miller reportedly chewed out ICE brass (“Why aren’t you at Home Depot? Why aren’t you at 7-Eleven?”) on the numbers not long before the agency launched its fateful raids in Los Angeles. But at the same time, the administration has been getting major heat from certain industries — particularly agriculture and hospitality — that going after their workforces would be a really bad idea. Indeed, according to the New York Times, Agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins lobbied her boss to ease up on farmworkers. Then, suddenly, Trump was expressing a change of heart on Truth Social. He wrote on June 12:
“Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace. In many cases the Criminals allowed into our Country by the VERY Stupid Biden Open Borders Policy are applying for those jobs. This is not good. We must protect our Farmers, but get the CRIMINALS OUT OF THE USA. Changes are coming!”
This wasn’t just loose talk. While border czar Tom Homan denied that any policy change on deportation targeting was underway, ICE itself took the hint, as Axios reported:
“Tatum King, a senior ICE official, sent an email to agency officials nationwide, telling them to ‘please hold on all worksite enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meatpacking plants), restaurants, and operating hotels.’”
So what’s the focus now? Trump made no bones about it in a Truth Social post on June 15:
“[W]e must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside. These, and other such Cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens. These Radical Left Democrats are sick of mind, hate our Country, and actually want to destroy our Inner Cities — And they are doing a good job of it! There is something wrong with them. That is why they believe in Open Borders, Transgender for Everybody, and Men playing in Women’s Sports — And that is why I want ICE, Border Patrol, and our Great and Patriotic Law Enforcement Officers, to FOCUS on our crime ridden and deadly Inner Cities, and those places where Sanctuary Cities play such a big role. You don’t hear about Sanctuary Cities in our Heartland!”
There you have it: The president of the United States is very clearly telling his deportation shock troops to wage partisan war on cities that are the “Democrat Power Center,” based on the hallucinatory idea — a MAGA staple — that “Radical Left Democrats” are herding millions of undocumented workers to the polls to “cheat in Elections and grow the Welfare State.” It’s all a crock, but reflects a distinctly Trumpian mash-up of the “great replacement theory” and crime-wave myths. And the targeting of blue cities seems to have already taken place, Axios recently reported, especially in red states where state law-enforcement officials have encouraged maximum cooperation with ICE:
“Efforts to arrest and remove unauthorized immigrants appear most aggressive in five southern states with Democratic-leaning cities, while deeply red, rural states are seeing less activity, according to an Axios analysis. …
“[L]ocal law enforcement agencies in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia have been most cooperative with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) through deals known as 287 (g) agreements. There are 629 such agreements now in place across the country. About 43% of them are in Florida, followed by 14% in Texas and 5% in Georgia.
“The GOP-led state governments in Florida, Texas and Virginia also have made a point of pushing local agencies to partner with federal agents, leading to a series of high-profile, mass raids in those states.”
In effect, Republican state administrations are working with the Feds to come down on Democratic-run cities to scourge immigrant populations. And in blue states like California, the mass deportations feel more like all-out partisan war. Certainly the federalization of National Guard units and planned deployment of Marines to Los Angeles — a place Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem called a “city of criminals” that the administration would “liberate” from its “socialist” elected leadership — signaled an armed takeover more than any sort of law-enforcement initiative. And now Trump is making the partisanship behind it all too explicit for anyone to miss or deny. While this overt politicization of mass deportation may please Trump’s MAGA base, it will likely erode his popularity more generally.
For now, Trump-friendly industries in Trump-friendly parts of the country need not worry so much, but all those radical-left hellholes better prepare for the onset of fire and ICE. After all, Stephen Miller has quotas to meet.
Squeaky, I don’t think the Bush camp is giving all that much thought to Kerry on this. Their main concern is definitely the plummeting public opinion on Iraq, combined with the conventional wisdom in political/media circles having gotten to the point where only the most pro-Bush hacks are willing to say that his policy is working.
For Bush, the media’s “what’s Kerry going to do now that Bush is adopting his position” meme is a pleasant un-earned side benefit. It is happening in some circles, unfortunately. Commenter “howie” provides an irritating anecdote in the comments two posts up from this one, and also see this stupid NY Times story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/26/politics/campaign/26POLI.html?hp
Haggai:
That’s the strategery of this six-speech thing — force Kerry out into the open on Iraq. It’s a problem for Kerry — he doesn’t have any great ideas about what to do in Iraq because there aren’t any good options. My advice to him is to keep pointing out that a wish list is not a plan. But in the end Rove may get some traction from this. It’s risky, though. If Bush repeats last night’s performance six times, its vacuity is going to obvious even to the feeblest.
On the issue of Bush doing five more of these speeches, the Kerry campaign ought to give serious thought to a “counter-programming” strategy. In other words, plan some Kerry (or Kerry surrogate) speeches or press confernces on the same day as each of those five. Also, they might want to do some ad buys to run in selected markets at the same time to blunt their impact. They shouldn’t just passively let him use the power of the incumbency this way without a response.
I can see one scenario where “Shrub” wins (if only barely) despite a string of moderately bad news up until the eve of the elections. One, he decides he can’t win over the center so he starts pandering to his socially conservative base (gay bashing, school prayer etc.). That automatically guarantees him 40% of the vote regardless of how bad Iraq or the economy gets. Two, he launches a vicious all-out assault to smear Kerry as a Dom Perignon drinking Frog-loving sophisticate who will raise taxes and sell America to the U.N.. Three, non-partisan centrist voters will stay away in droves since they do not like the incumbent President but also dislike the Kerry character portrayed in the $200-million GOP attack ads. Four, voter turnout among the rabid political base (GOP vs. Dem. partisans) in Ohio, Florida and a handful of other states decide the outcome. Unfortunately, the Bush campaign has invested millions in getting out the vote and you can be sure Jeb Bush & co. will be doing their best to keep minorities, felons and other “unpatriotic” folks away from the polls.
I am still thinking about buying $1000 insurance against a “Shrub” victory. That way, I will at least have something to feel good about if Flyboy wins a second term in November. I would rather lose the money and see Kerry win, though … “the Chimp” is just an awful leader of the free world.
MARCU$
The really fascinating story of the past few days has been about the implications of the Chalabi and INC reletionship with Iranian Intelligence. The best story I’ve seen today is in the LA Times — op/ed section, at least the author knew some 20th century Espionage History, made reference to the Leninist “Trust” — but not to how the knowledge of the principles of the 1920’s Tust so spooked James Jesus Angleton that in the 60’s and early 70’s, he pretty much took down active agents in the USSR. Ironicxally it was Seymour Hersh in 1974 who published the investigative piece in the NYTimes that ended Angleton’s run. Bush Senior got in on the rebuilding at CIA during his year long directorship in 1976. Tiz ironic Bush Jr and all his neo-con’s apparently are the total victims of the Iranian version of this kind of false flag operation.
The papers are full today of juicy lines from high level former spooks congratualating the Iranians on their tradecraft.
While I’ve seen several efforts at analysis along these lines — I suspect that once the story is clear to people who have not read Intelligence History get the short but accurate version — I can’t see how Bush survives anything. In essence what the whole gang did was spend more than 200 billion of our money and over 780 lives at this juncture, to defeat the only major enemy of Iran and the Mullahs. The whole Neo-con operation resulted in that end due to the role Chalabi apparently played vis a vis Tehran.
Yep — the Bush gang are really the grown ups!!!
James, don’t put too much stock in quick anecdotal evidence. Remember how the “Saddam bounce” from his capture was going to guarantee Bush’s re-election? It certainly boosted his poll numbers, but then it all disappeared within two or three weeks, since events on the ground in Iraq didn’t get any better. Speeches are even less likely to give Bush any real boost, not compared to the capture of America’s public enemy #1 for most of the past decade (the few months after 9/11 excepted, when we actually realized who the real threat was). As DR has been documenting, public approval of Bush on Iraq is extremely low, in the 30s in some polls. A few rhetorical flourishes aren’t going to be enough to change that in any meaningful way.
One fear that I do have is the lazy horse-race dynamic of the press. Bush gives these speeches where he says he’s a strong leader, staying the course, fighting for freedom, etc. In reality, his policies are constantly shifting and startingly short on details. But, some in the media seem always determined to spin this as “Bush is moving closer to Kerry’s positions, so what’s Kerry going to do?” That’s a recipe for a totally fraudulent public discourse: Bush pretends to be a steel-jawed and determined war-time leader, while the press somehow turns his flip-flopping and incompetence into A STORY ABOUT KERRY. I’m definitely concerned about that.
Haggai, I don’t think the press is as skeptical as you think (they sure weren’t on CNN last night). Anyway, the public seems to be responding on cue, if the once-increasingly skeptical AOL dittoheads are any clue (they usually have 3 negative; 3 positive in “What America Thinks” this time they only had 2 negative).
“My president did a great job last night. God Bless him and God Bless America. We have a long fight, but we will win.”
–
“Bush’s foreign policy has done irreparable harm and has proven that every negative stereotype of America is exactly right.”
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“I believe we should stand behind Bush and support him. He’s an amazing man [and has] courage and conviction.”
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“Congratulations on presenting a fine, clear, workable and honorable plan. I’m proud to have you lead our country.”
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“After three years, one thing is abundantly clear. Bush talks a good game, but there is no substance to back up his words.”
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“Don’t you people have the decency to stand by your president? Bush has done a great job.”
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I also don’t think that I can overestimate how many people fell for this “evil LIBERAL media didn’t run our President’s speech, they’re scared of the truth!!!” meme. I have heard this again and again and again, and it seems to be having a positive effect for him.
It will take more than this to help him in the polls but if this is only the 1st speech out of 6 then you’re going to definitely see his polls shoot back up. This isn’t about what the media thinks anyway. He wants to get the confused and scared Americans back in line.
I wasn’t exactly saying that the press will let Bush get away with it. They let him get away with more than they should, but this isn’t the run-up to the war anymore, with Chalabi-sourced WMD stories blanketing the cover of the NY Times. By and large, the press is a lot more skeptical now.
As Haggai mentions, the press will let Bush get away with anything he wants. That’s the problem. I don’t think this was a good speech but in the past he’s given worse speeches that were praised to the skies. So most likely, this speech will be a big help to him. What annoys me the most is how many people I hear saying ‘the awful liberal networks didn’t run our President’s speech!!!’ falling right for the trap Rove set, as always (he didn’t ask the networks to run the speech).
As long as Kerry remains undefined, it’s still Bush’s race to lose.
” . . . Bush’s approval rating on handling the war on terrorism been dropping like a stone,” No, no, no. his rating is dropping like Iraq. (get it?)
george II..wil follow in georgeI’s foot stumbles…another iraq another fiasco..
Hopefully that approval rating will dip below %40.
James K Galbraith brings up an excellent point in this article in Salon:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/05/22/polls/index.html
Since Bush (literally) took the office, his favorables have been on a downward spiral, with the exception of the 3 poll spikes, 911, the start of the war and capturing Saddam.
“will the administration successfully divert attention with deflective talk of “stay the course” and “resolve?” ”
Tim, I think it’s pretty safe to say that the answer is no, not at this point. The public mood has caught up with the consistently awful news from Iraq, and it’s really gone south on Bush, as the poll numbers keep deteriorating for him with each passing week. “Stay the course” doesn’t work when you get to the point where most people are convinced that the course we’re on is failing.
To be optimistic about it, I think Bush might be hoist on his own petard here, since changing course in a dramatic way would be nearly impossible to spin with his preferred image, show-resolve/stay-the-course etc. Meaning that even if he does change things up a lot and improve the Iraq policy (yeah, right, fat chance), he might already be assured of sustaining serious political damage either way–either stick with the current plan and look stubborn and clueless in the face of serious trouble, or reverse course and expose the entire “strong war-time leader/doesn’t waver” persona as a house of cards.
A bit of pessimism might be in order, in that Bush has already gotten away with a fairly major flip-flop or two. Most notably, the direct outsourcing of the June 30 transition plan to UN envoy Brahimi, an almost direct contravention of the previous 12 months of administration disdain for any serious UN involvement. But the press, instead of greeting this near-180-degree flip-flop by asking, “why didn’t the administration do this 12 months ago, like Kerry and the Dems have been saying all along?”, decided to play the story as, “what will Kerry do, now that Bush is undercutting Kerry’s position on internationalizing the Iraq effort?” %^#in’ press corps really gets on my nerves sometimes.
Interesting that it seems the public is connecting the WOT more directly with Iraq. The administration may well be painted into a corner by having equated the two if the public has decided that as goes one, so goes the other.
I’d rather not be in the position of seeing a poll that says that a strong majority of Americans think that we’re headed in the wrong direction… and feel good about Kerry’s prospect for election. I truly wish that the country was headed in the right direction. It’s obvious that we aren’t.
What got us to this point? Will the press go back in time and examine the Iraq mess and trace key decisions back to the administration? Will voters connect the dots? Or will the administration successfully divert attention with deflective talk of “stay the course” and “resolve?”
Who can answer: What is the plan to get out of Iraq? and… when??
I hope Kerry can.
It looks like Bush will need more than a great speech tonight. To date, I don’t think he’s given one in his 3+ years in office, so I’m not overly worried about that. The wrong track numbers are the numbers that stick and he’s now as bad as, or worse than, his father on this item. All Kerry needs to do is come up with an absolute great Veep candidate now. Since the Repugs cannot campaign on their main issue (war on terror), they’ll start blasting Kerry and his Veep left and right once the convention is over. Even if the economy is doing better, election history says that voters remember what happened six months prior to the election, and that is the high “wrong track” numbers when it comes to the economy. It certainly is great to see this happening to the Right. Their lies and favoritism is coming back to haunt them. Let’s hope it stays this way through the election.
Looks like the Dems should take a play form the GOP ’94 play book and come up with their “Contract with America”.