Well, that is if you weight their data to conform to the 4 point Democratic party ID lead which we have good reason to believe is the underlying distribution in the voting electorate. As many have already heard, the new CBS News/New York Times poll, conducted September 12-16, gives Bush an 8 point lead (50-42) among RVs–but also gives the Republicans a 4 point edge on party ID. Reweight their data to conform to an underlying Democratic 4 point edge (using the 39D/35R/26I distribution from the 2000 exit poll) and you get a nearly even race, 47 Bush/46 Kerry.
Nearly even. That goes along with the the 46-46 tie in the Pew Research Center poll (which gave the Democrats a 4 point edge on party ID without weighting) and the 48-48 tie in the Gallup poll (once weighted to reflect an underlying Democratic 4 point edge). Not to mention the two other recent national polls (Harris, Democracy Corps) that show the race within one point.
Perhaps all this is just a coincidence, but the pattern seems striking. Once you adjust for the apparent overrepresentation of Republican identifiers in some samples, the polls all seem to be saying the same thing: the race is a tie or very close to it.
Note: this entry has been revised from the original to correct the CBS reweighted horse race from 46-46 (original) to 47-46 (corrected).

Bush leads Kerry 47-45 percent among Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head race, with 8 percent unsure in a Keystone Poll conducted September 8-15 for Franklin & Marshall College/Philadelphia Daily News/CN8.
Bush leads Kerry 47-44 among Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head match-up, with 1 percent someone else, 2 percent wouldn’t vote and 7 percent don’t know in a Quinnipiac University Poll conducted Sept. 11-14, 2004.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 48 percent of Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head contest, with 2 percent neither, 1 percent wouldn’t vote and 1 percent unsure in an ABC News Poll conducted Sept. 9-12, 2004.

Bush leads Kerry 47-46 among Minnesota RV’s in a head-to-head match-up, with 7 percent neither/other/no opinion, according to a USA Today-CNN-Gallup Poll conducted Sept. 11-14.

A poll of Minnesota LV’s by Mason Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for the St.
Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesotra Public Radio conducted Sept. 11-14 has Bush
ahead of Kerry 46-44 percent, with 1 percent for Nader and 9 percent undecided.

A national USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll conducted Sept.13-15 has Bush leading among RV’s 52-44 percent, with 2 percent for neither and 2 percent no opinion.

A new national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
has Kerry and Bush tied at 46 percent among RV’s (September 11-14), with 1
percent for Nader and 7 percent other/don’t know.

An American Research Group poll of 20 states conducted September 7-13 shows John Kerry leading among LV’s in 4 out of 5 designated “swing” states, ME, MN, OR, and WA, with Bush leading only in CO by 1 percent. The polls also indicate Kerry is maintaining substantial leads in “blue” states.

A Harris poll of nation-wide LV’s conducted Sept. 9-13, has Kerry leading Bush 48-47 percent, with 2 percent for Nader and 3 percent not sure/refused.

A head-to-head poll of nation-wide LV’s by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted 9/12-14 for Democracy Corps has Bush ahead of Kerry 49-48 percent with 1 percent going for other.

Even as Bush has opened up a small lead in the national polls–and I’ve tried to offer some evidence in my posts that this lead is underwhelming–evidence has been accumulating that he remains weak among the kind of independent and swing voters he needs to form an electoral majority.
In fact, the Annenberg Election Survey has just released data that indicate, while Bush made some small gains among the overall electorate when comparing the pre-GOP convention and post-GOP convention periods, he has actually lost ground among “persuadable voters” (those voters who are undecided or who say there is a “good chance” they could change their mind about the candidate they currently support).
For example, Bush’s favorability rating fell from 47 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable among persuadables in August (August 9-29) to 43/33 after the GOP convention (September 3-12). And Kerry’s rating among this group actually has gone up: from 36/25 to 43/25 (now somewhat better than Bush’s).
In addition, Bush’s overall job rating among persuadables is now 44 percent approval/49 percent disapproval; his job rating on the economy is 32/63 and his job rating on Iraq is 34/59. Even his job rating on terrorism is only 50/41. And all of these ratings are now lower among persuadables, not higher, than they were in August
Bush has also lost significant ground among persuadables since August on some key candidate characteristics including “cares about people like me”, “shares my values”, “out of touch with people like me”, “stubborn” and “arrogant”. These voters are now more liikely, not less likely, to think the positive attributes apply to Kerry and the negative attributes to Bush.
In short, the persuadables aren’t persuaded and appear to be ripe for Democratic gains. What’s the key? One possibility is Iraq. Persuadables are now less convinced than ever that Bush has a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion–just 17 percent now think so. Unfortunately, only 15 percent of persuadables think Kerry has such a plan–not much of a difference and not even one in Kerry’s favor.
Make that difference a big one in Kerry’s favor and Bush’s weakness among persuadables could translate into big gains for the Democratic ticket.