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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

J.P. Green

‘Unicorn Hunt for the White Male Working-Class Voter’ Not Winning

From “The Left-Wing Unicorn Hunt for the White Male Working-Class Voter” by Victor Davis Hanson at townhall.com:

The last Democratic candidate to appeal to the white working-class voter was Bill Clinton. He needed every one of those voters in his 1992 and 1996 races. Yet he still failed to win 50 percent of the popular vote because of Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy.

Since then, the Democratic brand has lost the white working-class vote in nearly every presidential election. Yet this demographic still makes up 40 percent of the electorate and registers and votes at much higher rates than non-white groups.

Apparently, during the Biden-era influx of 10 million illegal aliens, Democrats really believed their own slogans about an “Emerging Democratic Majority” and how “Demography is destiny.” They therefore confidently abandoned most efforts to recruit white working-class voters.

In 2017, the then-neocon—and now leftist Zohran Mamdani supporter—Bill Kristol (who has advocated abolishing ICE altogether) spoke of the need to open the borders to replace the “lazy” American worker: “Look, to be totally honest, if things are so bad as you say with the white working class, don’t you want to get new Americans in?”

Kristol then characterized this apparently dispensable group as “decadent, lazy, spoiled.”

And yet, until the novelty of Barack Obama’s candidacy and the demographic overconfidence it inspired, Democrats regularly lamented that, aside from the moderate Bill Clinton interlude, their steady leftward turn was becoming both irreversible and electorally costly.

More here.


Political Strategy Notes

Josephine Walker reports at Axios that “The Supreme Court’s approval rating — long the highest among the three branches of government — has sunk to a record low, joining President Trump and Congress in drawing low public support.” Further, “33% of Americans approve of the Supreme Court’s performance, according to a Gallup survey of 1,200 adults conducted from July 1-19 — days after the justices wrapped their latest term…That’s down 6 percentage points from 2025, the court’s previous low…About 13.5% of Americans approve of Congress’ performance, down from 23.2% in July 2025, per YouGov data… Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, the lowest of either of his terms in office, a The Economist / YouGov poll found.” Also, “Just 58% of Republicans approve of the court this year, down from a near-record 79% in 2025…Gallup estimates those changes may reflect frustration that the court has bucked Trump on several major priorities, including birthright citizenship and tariffs…Meanwhile, Democratic support plunged after the court overturned Roe v. Wade, and Gallup suggests Democrats and independents remain unhappy with its conservative tilt…Flashback: When Gallup first asked the question in 2000, 62% of Americans approved of the Supreme Court, and a majority continued to support the court through 2010…Since then, its ratings have mostly fluctuated in the 40s as political polarization increased.”

“There’s an active debate in Democratic politics between progressives and moderates about how to build a winning coalition,” Tamara Keith reports at npr.org. “A new report from a pair of California researchers, shared exclusively with NPR, argues that debate misses the point. The answer isn’t centrism, they write, it’s respect for where working-class voters are coming from…”It’s about understanding that people need a sense of personal and economic security before they will support the changes progressives are calling for,” the authors write…Their message is that the Democratic Party would be making a huge mistake if it keeps catering to social justice warriors and fails to understand, respect and appeal to working-class voters. “The path heavily favors the party that wins working-class voters,” the report explains…”I am tired of losing,” Williams said in an interview. “I want to build a sustained progressive coalition capable of delivering on progressive goals. And that’s not what we have now and that’s not what we’ve had for decades.”…Titled “The Left’s Coalition Crisis: Understanding the Massive Divide Between Working Class and College Educated Voters, and How to Bridge It,” the report argues Democrats have lost support from working-class voters of all races because the party’s base is out of touch with the priorities and values of those Americans…”Until Democrats understand the importance of really respecting, listening to and taking seriously the values of self-reliance, the values of patriotism and tradition and personal security,” Abbott said, “they’re going to have a major messaging and a major electoral problem.”

From “Maine Democrats Have a New Working-Class Hero in Troy Jackson. Can He Deliver?” at SNJ Today: “A new contender is emerging in the political arena, with implications that could ripple across the nation and impact how working-class voters engage with the Democratic Party. Troy Jackson, a former logger from Maine, is stepping into the spotlight as a potential challenger to long-serving Republican Senator Susan Collins. Jackson’s background, deeply rooted in the traditions and challenges of blue-collar industries, offers a different perspective than many traditional Democratic candidates…Jackson’s journey from the forests of Maine to the national political stage is drawing attention. His supporters believe his firsthand experience with the issues facing working families – from job security to economic opportunity – makes him a compelling figure. For communities across South Jersey, including those in Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem counties with historical ties to manufacturing and agriculture, this narrative resonates. The ability of a candidate to connect with the everyday concerns of these regions has often been a deciding factor in local and state elections. As Jackson prepares to potentially face Senator Collins, his campaign will be closely watched to see if his message can mobilize a broad base of voters, including those who may feel overlooked by mainstream politics…The coming months will reveal whether Jackson can translate his grassroots appeal into a successful challenge. His ability to articulate solutions for economic challenges and connect with voters across different demographics will be crucial. This race offers a chance to see if a candidate with a distinctly working-class background can effectively compete at the highest levels of government and influence the direction of the Democratic Party.”

An excerpt from Froma Harrop’s “Osborn: Not A Face In The Crowd, But A Real Working Class Candidate” at The National Memo: “American politics feasts on stories of candidates from humble backgrounds who know what it means to be a working stiff. Some such contenders are uncovered as bums or phonies. But some are the real thing…They would include Dan Osborn of Nebraska. He is the steamfitter and former union organizer from Omaha running for the senate as an independent against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts…Osborn now has a decent chance of prevailing in November. His is not a new face. He had run in 2024 as an independent who did surprisingly well against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osborn lost by only 7 points in a state that Donald Trump carried by about 21 points. Osborn clearly has appeal…After the election, Osborn launched a PAC called the Working Class Heroes Fund. Its stated mission is to support candidates like him, regardless of party label. With Ricketts an heir to a family fortune exceeding $1 billion, Osborn has predictably framed the race as between the “billionaire class” and the working class…To prevail in a conservative state like Nebraska, Osborn needs support from disaffected or moderate Republicans. If elected, he vows not to caucus with either party. And he criticizes Democrats for their focus on white-collar professionals…Working in his favor is the fact that many Nebraska Republicans are not hard right. Omaha Rep. Don Bacon, for example, is a Republican moderate known for often criticizing Trump. His is a swing district, nationally known as the “blue dot.” Seeing himself at a disadvantage among MAGA Republicans and Democrats desperate for a win, Bacon decided not to seek another term.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

Will the U. S. Supreme Court cave to the Republican effort to ban voting by mail? Here’s how John Fritze and Tierney Sneed report on the initiative  in “Trump asks Supreme Court to let him curtail mail voting” at CNN Politics: “President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court on Monday to allow the administration to move forward with implementing a sweeping executive order aimed at mail voting that lower courts blocked in nearly two dozen states — setting up a major elections dispute at the high court months before the midterms…Trump’s order would give the US Postal Service and the Department of Homeland Security new roles in screening state voter rolls for potential non-citizen voters…Signed in March, the president’s directive would require states to submit lists of eligible mail voters to the US Postal Service, which would be barred from sending ballots to anyone not on those lists. It would also require states to use individualized ballot tracking barcodes on ballot envelopes. And it would “prioritize” federal prosecution of state election officials who send or receive ballots to non-citizens or others ineligible to vote…Twenty-three Democratic-led states challenged the order, noting that the Constitution leaves the running of elections largely to states, not the White House. A federal district court blocked its implementation for this year’s election in the states that sued, and the Boston-based 1st US Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that decision over the weekend.” More here.

In related voting rights news, Associated Press reporters Joey Cappelletti and Mary Clare Jalonick report that “Trump demands Senate cancel August break until it passes voting bill,” and write: “President Donald Trump on Monday demanded that Senate Majority Leader John Thune cancel the chamber’s upcoming August break until senators pass a strict proof-of-citizenship voting bill, even as Republicans lack the votes to advance it…Trump has repeatedly urged Thune to scrap the legislative filibuster, which effectively sets a 60-vote threshold for most legislation in the 100-member Senate, or find another workaround to pass the voting bill, known as the SAVE America Act. But Republicans hold only a 53-47 majority, and Thune has consistently said they don’t have the votes to pass the bill or change the rules to get around the filibuster…“John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to ‘leave town’ until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER,” Trump wrote on social media…It’s the latest escalation in a monthslong pressure campaign by Trump and others in the GOP base to pass the SAVE Act ahead of the midterms. A small but vocal group of Republican senators has also increasingly pressed Thune to find a way forward…Thune responded Monday afternoon, telling reporters he would be supportive of cancelling the break if there was a path forward on the legislation.” More here.

In “The 2026 House Map is No More Favorable to Republicans than the 2018 Map was,” Kyle Kondik explains” at The Center for Politics: “Republicans made the House map better for themselves compared to the 2024 map by winning this cycle’s expansive redistricting fight…However, comparing this year’s map to the district lines in place in 2018—the last midterm held under President Trump—puts the 2026 House map in a different light…By a number of metrics, the 2026 House map is no more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map, and it may actually be a little less favorable…The median House district by presidential performance is less Republican, the number of districts that voted to the right of the nation for president is smaller, and the number of plausible Democratic House targets based on history is comparable…There are a lot of numbers here, but the key one for our purposes is summed up at the bottom of the table: On the 2026 map, there are 234 districts that are R+4 or bluer. On the 2018 map, there were 233 such districts…That’s basically the same, but on this metric too, the 2026 map is very slightly better for Democrats than the 2018 map was…To get a sense as to how the 2026 map might have performed in 2018, we looked at the percentage of races Democrats won in each of these categories in the actual 2018 elections, and then we applied those percentages to the 2026 map…That produces 239 Democratic seats, or 4 more than the 235 Democrats actually won in 2018…Now, we wouldn’t take this too literally: beyond map changes, the country has also shifted politically since 2018, with changes that have altered both party coalitions…But here’s the point: If the 2026 House map was worse for Democrats than the 2018 map, we’d expect that if we applied the 2018 win percentage for Democrats in each of these categories to the 2026 map, they would win fewer seats, not more…None of this should be taken to suggest that we think Democrats are going to do better in 2026 than 2018 (at this point we don’t think they will, even though we continue to favor Democrats to win the majority). There’s much more than just the map that goes into producing the actual House results. And however Democrats perform in this election, it’s very likely that they would have done better had there been no redistricting this cycle…But if Democrats could win the House on the 2018 map, they can win it on this one, too.” More here.

As regards public attitudes and protest against AI Centers, in “Data center backlash signals a fight over AI power,” Tom Wheeler writes at Brookings: “The flashpoint has been data centers, the multi-football field-sized computing facilities that power AI. Fundamentally, this is a fight about power and whether it will be exercised by democratic institutions or those that control the infrastructure of AI…Local citizen outrage has taken its toll. The first three months of 2026 saw local data center opposition block or delay 75 projects worth $130 billion in planned construction, according to Data Center Watch. This was roughly the same number of projects affected as in all 12 months of 2025…AI mega centers have become the symbol of citizen frustration about AI. As the most visible manifestation of AI, they have become the proxy for citizen feedback on AI itself. The debate over land use also represents the crystallization of broader public concern about AI’s effect on American lives and livelihood. “Concerns over data centers relate to broader worries that the rapid ​expansion of AI could upend the labor market,” Reuters reported. “Americans don’t know how to fight AI. So they’re fighting data centers,” a Vox headline explained…As AI leaps from technology to politics, the central question becomes who is in charge: democratic structures or autocratic executives.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

In “Democrats fight to win back Latino voters who are key to flipping the House,” Juhi Doshi writes at abcnews.com: “Two years back, President Donald Trump made gains with Latinos that were decisive to his victory. Now, with conflict overseas and high costs, Democrats are eyeing key House races that have significant Latino populations that are essential for a House majority…Trump’s net approval rating among Hispanic voters has suffered since he took office for his second term. A June 2026 Fox News poll found Trump underwater by 38 percentage points, with 31% of Latino voters approving of how he was handling his job as president and 69% disapproving. In March 2025, he was down by only 11 points with the group, with 44% approving and 55% disapproving… But strategists warn that Democrats need to give voters something to vote for, not just something to vote against…Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who studies Latino voters, said regional and national-origin differences among working class voters — Cubans in Florida, Dominicans in New Jersey, Puerto Ricans in New York and Mexican Americans in California and Texas — are collapsing under one shared issue: the economy…”Both parties just devolve into these petty, irrelevant cultural battles that are not speaking to anybody’s concerns. What you end up with is Latinos voting against whoever is in power and punishing them for the economic issues that aren’t being addressed,” Madrid added…Democrats, who have lost ground with Latinos since 2016, believe the passage of Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” — legislation that is set to result in cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits — will also be key…In California’s Central Valley, where Medicaid covers at least half of all Latino residents, Randy Villegas is challenging Rep. David Valadao. He said that the residents in his district will drive across the border to Tijuana for cheaper medical work.” More here.

From “Trump’s Plot to Rig Midterms Gets So Unhinged That Even Fox Is Rattled. As Trump’s threats to corrupt the midterms grow more vile, a political scientist explains why his visible derangement shouldn’t distract us from the severe threat this moment poses.” by Greg Sargent at The New Republic: “During his prime-time speech dissembling endlessly about our elections, Donald Trump raged at news organizations for refusing to carry him live. Then his Homeland Security secretary also smeared the media, a sign Trump’s fury continues to deepen. We think this means Trump fully expects news organizations to help him amplify his lies about our elections to sow distrust in them. As we discuss in this episode, his speech revealed that he’s plainly mulling an effort to rig the midterms, and sowing that distrust is key to it. A funny thing, though: Fox News explicitly declined to endorse his claims and refrained from carrying his DHS secretary. And according to Fox sources, insiders were dismayed to hear Trump obsessing over our elections, thought it was bad politics for the GOP, and even worried it was bad for business given post-2020 litigation against Fox. We talked to Harvard political scientist Ryan Enos, who explains how Trump is telegraphing an authoritarian plot to corrupt the elections, why the assaults on the media are central to that, and how Democrats and the American people must respond. Listen to this episode here. A transcript is here.”

Here’s a chart from “The economic policy-branding paradox” by Patrick Ruffini at The Intersection:

Bill McKibben shares “An Idea for Democrats to Keep It Together in 2028. What if a candidate picked a running mate from another faction of the Party right away, and they ran on a unified vision?” at The New Yorker. An excerpt: “So it’s also worth imagining whether there are some structural ways that the Democrats could signal their seriousness about uniting, and their commitment to an alliance in the long term. Here’s one idea: candidates for President should consider naming, and campaigning with, their Vice-Presidential pick from Day One…Imagine this scenario (and feel free to substitute in other names). Say that, a few months after the midterms, Governor J. B. Pritzker, of Illinois, strides to a lectern in Springfield to announce a run for the White House, with the usual bunting and copious references to Abraham Lincoln, but standing with him is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He says that, since he would turn sixty-eight by the end of his first term, and since there is a clear desire among Americans for younger leaders, it makes sense for him to plan on serving just one term, and then to support the Vice-President for a run in 2032. She says that, since she’s short on executive experience, as opposed to legislative experience, it would be a logical step to spend four years as Vice-President—and that she’ll still only be forty-three on Inauguration Day in January, 2033…This plan seems as if it could accomplish any number of useful things. It signals that the candidates’ primary campaign would center on broad areas of agreement that unite centrists and progressives, rather than on the things they might contest: both are against authoritarianism and for action to broaden access to health care; both support more affordable homes and lower electric bills; both are eager for a transition to clean energy; and both are keenly focussed on community college as a key part of building a workforce for the future. In truth, the divisions between the various factions in the Party are not as deep as sometimes imagined—if you look closely, Joe Biden was a very Bernie President, determined to use large-scale government action to transform the economy. But there are also real differences in both style and emphasis, and this would be a way to bridge them—to announce, in short, that these views are not too disparate to animate the same Administration. Call it a government of Democratic unity.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

Here’s a stub from “Trump Owes Americans a Better Explanation About Iran. Two more Americans have died. Meanwhile, the president’s rationale for war keeps changing.” by Tom Nichols at The Atlantic: They died in an Iranian attack on a Jordanian air base; several more U.S. military personnel were injured and one is missing. The American people have a right to know why they died, and how many more of their sons and daughters President Trump is willing to risk in this war of choice…The president, so far, has issued his usual stock answers. It’s “a very sad thing,” he said in a phone call on Saturday afternoon to the right-wing outletNewsNation. He added: “We hate to see it happen. It’s in service to our country.” But every military death is in service to the nation. It is true by definition that all 16 Americans who have lost their lives so far in this conflict did so because they volunteered to wear uniforms of the United States military and endure great risks on behalf of their fellow citizens. Military service, even in peacetime, is inherently hazardous…But these Americans are dead because they were sent to war—and for months Trump has offered no comprehensive explanation about why his administration is ordering U.S. military personnel to put their lives on the line. Or, more accurately, he’s offered several rationales at various moments over the past 20 weeks of war.” More here.

Sen. Susan Collins now faces a more authentic working class candidate in Maine, where “Troy Jackson emerges as Democratic pick as top Maine Senate candidates step aside. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former public health official Nirav Shah ended their Senate campaigns on Sunday,” as Bridget Bowman reports at nbcnews.com: “SANFORD, Maine — Former state Senate President Troy Jackson emerged from a whirlwind weekend of voting as Maine Democrats’ likely pick to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins…By Sunday night, all of Jackson’s major opponents had dropped out of the race, including Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, physician Nirav Shah and former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, who reversed course after initially committing to remain in the race…Bellows made her announcement Sunday morning, while Shah exited the race Sunday evening after Democrats across the state selected delegates to next week’s state nominating convention.Jackson quickly established a seemingly insurmountable advantage in delegates as his supporters swept counties throughout the state…Jackson’s supporters won 481 of the 500 convention seats up for grabs this weekend, according to his campaign. Those delegates are not technically required to support Jackson at the convention, but with such a strong showing, his nomination became a foregone conclusion…A logger and former legislator, Jackson doesn’t officially become the nominee until the state convention next week. There, delegates will pick a new nominee to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins, replacing primary winner Graham Platner after he abruptly ended his campaign last week following a sexual assault allegation, which he denied.” More here.

Check out “‘This Is Unbelievable:’ CNN Data Guru Says ‘Working Class Have Turned Against Donald Trump’” by Katherine Boniello at Mediate, who writes: “Working class voters have had it with President Donald Trump‘s handling of the economy, according to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten…Speaking Friday morning on CNN News Central, Enten went over the staggering change in the president’s poll numbers on the subject with host Kate Bolduan, citing surveys that show 66% of Americans now feel groceries are unaffordable…Enten then dug into polling from The Washington Post and Ipsos showing a stunning 82% of working-class Americans with incomes under $50,000 feel the same…OK, income under $50,000 on grocery affordability. And keep in mind that, this Donald Trump won this group one, this group back in 2024 put up a historically strong performance for Republican candidate. But look at these numbers now, just 16% of those with household incomes under $50,000 think that groceries are affordable…The lion’s share, 82%. You rarely ever see 82% of any group agreeing on anything. But what you see here is that those working class folks, those who have incomes, household incomes, under $50,000, the lion’s share, more than 4 in 5 say that groceries are unaffordable at this point.” More here.

In “Florida Democrats point to special-election wins as proof of a comeback. After decisive statewide losses in 2022 and 2024, Florida Democratic leaders say more than 30 local and special-election flips show their organizing strategy is working,” Forrest Saunders writes at wptv.com: “TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Democrats say they have proof a 2026 comeback is possible. Now, they have to prove that momentum can survive Election Day…After decisive statewide losses in 2022 and 2024, Democratic leaders on Monday outlined a path they say could break Republican supermajorities in the Florida Legislature and begin moving the state’s politics back toward the middle…“The Republican supermajority in this legislature is breakable, and we are going to break it this cycle,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said during a virtual briefing…The party pointed to more than 30 local and special-election flips since the 2024 election, more than 3,000 volunteers, increased candidate recruitment and an advantage in requests for vote-by-mail ballots. The party’s tally includes local offices as well as recent legislative special elections — not 30 seats in the Florida Legislature…Fried said the difference this cycle is the party’s “Pendulum Project,” a year-round organizing operation designed to maintain voter contact between major elections…“This does feel different for multiple reasons,” Fried said in a separate interview. “We have seen that work paying off by flipping almost 33 seats at this point, overperforming the national average.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

In “After fatal shooting, Joe Scarborough rips into Susan Collins over funding ICE,” Allison Detzel reports at MS NOW that News commentator and Former Republican congressman “Joe Scarborough criticized Republican Sen. Susan Collins for her role in supplying tens of billions of dollars in new funding for President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement in light of the fatal shooting by federal authorities of a 26-year-old Colombian immigrant in Collins’ home state of Maine — the second fatal shooting involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in a week…Johan Sebastián Guerrero was killed by immigration agents in Biddeford, Maine, on Monday morning while he was on his way to work. Authorities later revealed he was not the target of the warrant agents were trying to execute…On Tuesday’s “Morning Joe,” Scarborough blasted Collins and her fellow conservatives for effectively co-signing what he said was the federal government “killing people in the streets of America.” In doing so, the former Republican congressman accused the party of abandoning values it once held most dear, including its staunch opposition to government overreach…“When people like me started running,” Scarborough, who represented Florida’s 1st Congressional District from 1995 to 2001, recalled, “everywhere I went, I wanted to talk about ‘Well, the flat tax is more —’ they wanted to talk about Ruby Ridge. They wanted to talk about the ATF killing families that had guns.”” More here.

From “Trump Pulls Abrupt 180 on Strait of Hormuz After Iran Humiliates Him. Donald Trump had proposed tolling the Strait of Hormuz, but 24 hours later, he was singing a different tune” by Robert McCoy at The New Republic: “Rather than provide steady, articulate leadership and communication during his Iran war, the commander in chief has embraced bluster and erratic flip-flopping. The latest example of this came Tuesday, when President Donald Trump adopted a stance on the Strait of Hormuz diametrically opposed to the one he had announced the day before…On Monday, Trump decided that the United States would seize control of the strait. “We’ll become the guardian of the strait,” he told Fox News. “Now we’re gonna guard it, and we’re gonna get paid for guarding it. A lot of money. But we just want to be reimbursed.” In a Truth Social post, he said a 20 percent toll would be imposed on “all cargo shipped” through the strait…It was a stark reversal of the administration’s previous stance; Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance had stated unequivocally that no country would impose such a toll…Then the sun set and rose again, and Trump had yet another 180-degree change of heart…Tuesday, Trump declared that there would be no toll after all. Instead, he said vaguely in a Truth Social post that the U.S. would pursue “Trade and Investment Deals” with Gulf states. Shortly thereafter, he confirmed this new approach during a press conference. “I don’t think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the strait,” the president said, “or for any other strait relationship in terms of other sections of the world. I don’t think anybody should be really in that position.” More here.

The Broadcast Blog at Daily Kos shares “Trump Losing Everything Everywhere All At Once, which includes these observations: “After public outrage and outcry following two murders of immigrants by ICE officials over the past week — one in Maine who had an authorized work permit, the other in Texas who has been here for 30 years — the Dept. of Homeland Security is reportedly suspending most vehicle stops around the country. We’ll see if they do. Both men were shot and killed by immigration enforcement agents while in their car. Neither were endangering Trump’s jackbooted federal goons, nor were they their supposed targets for enforcement actions. At least 22 people have been fired on by agents involved in Trump’s deportation efforts during his second term. Six people, including three U.S. citizens, have been killed as a result of those shootings…In response to Iran‘s Sunday announcement that they are shutting down the Strait of Hormuz again, amid the collapse of peace talks, Trump declared on Monday that the U.S. was placing its own blockade on the Strait and would (unlawfully) charge ships 20% of the value of their cargo in exchange for safe passage. That ill-considered policy pronouncement didn’t last 24 hours before Trump called off the plan on TACO Tuesday. Instead, he spun an elaborate lie about “kings and emirs” calling him to suggest they be charged with investment in U.S. manufacturing to cross through the Strait…or some other fantastical, unintelligible, made-up-on-the-fly bullshit for reporters at the White House today.” More here.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (GA) has a few choice words for the Prez and his fellow election-denyers, as reported by Irene Wright at USA Today: “Georgia is in the middle of a tight and highly contested midterm election season, with two major races at the top of the ticket. And President Trumpis watching closely…Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is running against MAGA-backed, election denier Rep. Mike Collins for Georgia’s second senate seat. The other seat is held by Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is not up for reelection this cycle….Throughout his election campaign, Ossoff has accused Trump of peddling an election lie, one that has been echoed by his opponent, Collins, during his campaign. As recently as June, Collins stated he believed Trump won the 2020 election in an interview with CNN…In response to reporting from MS Now and the Washington Reporter that Trump’s speech could be about election fraud and target Georgia’s two Senate seats, Ossoff said this renewed “obsession” with Georgia elections stems from Trump’s anger toward Black voters who turned against him…”Donald Trump‘s spiral continues. The failed president, pocketing billions as he drives up prices, is afraid to lose the midterms. So he will reheat debunked election conspiracy theories and tell bizarre new lies to deny his 2020 defeat and attack voting rights,” Ossoff said in a statement late Monday….”From the start, Trump’s obsession with Georgia elections revealed his fury that Black voters were instrumental to his defeat,” Ossoff said. “I’m asking concerned citizens nationwide to join me and support our voter protection efforts in Georgia.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

Trump’s approval rating drops among White working-class voters,”Polls shown declining approval for President Donald Trump among White working-class voters and rural voters, but that doesn’t mean they’re all swinging to Democrats in the midterms” according to Chris Kenning at USA Today. An excerpt: “Since Trump first ran for president a decade ago, White working class and rural voters have been an important base of support, drawn to his vows to bring back manufacturing and crack down on immigration. In 2024, 2 in 3 White working-class voters backed him, according to research group PRRI’s post-election survey. Trump won 69% of the rural vote in 2024, according to Pew Research Center exit polling…But polling over recent months has shown rising disapproval from those groups, reaching majorities in some polls, especially on the economy – fueling a potential new vulnerability for Republicans heading into midterm elections that will determine control of Congress…A CBS News-YouGov poll in May found 54% of White, noncollege voters disapproved of Trump’s performance, up from 32% in February 2025. That disapproval hit 49% in a June NPR/PBS/Marist poll and 51% in an April Fox News poll. Among rural voters, a June Reuters/Ipsos poll found 48% disapproved of Trump, up from 34% the month after he returned to office…“The decline is significant given that White working-class voters were a pretty stable support between 2016 and 2020 for Trump after trending Republican since the early 1990s,” said Noam Lupu, a Vanderbilt University political science professor…The main driver of the discontent is higher prices for necessities like gas and food, pushed up by the Iran war and tariffs, experts said…an April NPR/PBS/Marist poll found 44% of White noncollege voters said they were more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate than for a Republican, up from just 30% ahead of the 2018 midterms. That could come into play in rural states…In Iowa, for example, which Trump carried by 13 percentage points in 2024 and whose six House seats are held by Republicans, The Wall Street Journal reported that the race for governor and two of its four House seats are now rated as toss-ups amid rural economic angst.” More here.

From “Susan Collins May Be Chuckling, but She’s in Far Worse Trouble Now” by Editor Michael Tomasky at The New Republic: “…Collins could well be in far more trouble with a new Democratic nominee. Kamala Harris beat Trump by seven points in the state. And as I noted above, in a recent poll, respondents said that for Congress, they’d choose a Democrat over a Republican by 53 percent to 42 percent. On top of that, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, who will be at the top of the ticket, looks like she’s going to beat her Republican foe by around 15 points. That means Collins is going to have to convince a lot of independents to switch from the D column to the R one as they move down the ballot from governor to senator…And what’s going on now, nationally and in Maine, is a strong anti-Trump sentiment—and a GOP incumbent senator who voted to confirm 22 of Trump’s 23 Cabinet nominees…What the Maine Democratic Party, and to some extent the national Democratic Party, has to do here is run a process that is widely accepted as having two qualities: It must be transparent, and it has to feel fair. The party needs to give voters and citizens regular updates on the process—this is happening today; this is happening next Tuesday—so that everyone feels they’re in the loop and no one feels sandbagged. And it needs to feel fair so that in the end, everyone at least feels that they need to accept the outcome.” More here.

Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman write at The Hill: “For Democrats, the opening is real and the timing could hardly be better. Just 32 percent of registered voters say the country is “on the right track” per Economist/YouGov polling…Likewise, Trump’s approval ratings continue to hover near record lows — 40 percent approve versus 58 percent disapprove per RealClearPolitics. And on the economy, which the housing bill could have addressed, it’s even lower, sitting at just 36 percent approve…Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot is steady at 6 points according to RealClearPolitics, but among Hispanics and independents, Democrats have a 34 and 15-point edge, respectively, according to Emerson polling…Aside from bringing the Senate to a virtual halt, the optics of Trump refusing to sign a housing bill until he gets his way on the SAVE Act, which Thune has repeatedly told Trump can’t pass, are ideal for Democrats. Republicans had been counting on a very public ceremony to show voters that they are committed to lowering costs, but Trump’s actions robbed them of an excellent opportunity…The campaign ads write themselves: “The president wants to make it harder for you to vote rather than make it easier for you to live” as one political strategist said in a recent interview…” More here.

It’s easy enough to rebut election-deniers with compelling evidence from dozens of court decisions and studies of election integrity. But that won’t stop them from being on midterm ballots in significant numbers. Read “All The Places Election Deniers Could Be in Charge of Elections After the Midterms” by Khaya Himmelman at Talking Points Memo, who says: “In an increasingly ominous trend, there are currently hundreds of election deniers on the ballot for the 2026 midterm elections. And although history has shown election denialism is not a winning campaign strategy, it continues to be a powerful force in the right-wing movement, from President Donald Trump on down…According to the nonpartisan non-profit States United Action, there are at least 140 election deniers currently running for statewide and congressional office. In statewide races, there are at least 42 election deniers running in 23 states. And in congressional races, there are at least 98 election deniers running in 25 states…“We’ve been tracking this movement since right after the 2020 election. And one thing we can say about the election denial movement now is that it seems to be more powerful than ever,” Kelly Rader, research director at States United Action, told TPM…“In some ways it reflects how election denial has matured into an organized movement,” Brendan Fischer, director of strategic investigations for Campaign Legal Center, similarly told TPM… “Election denial is no longer just a collection of fringe activists and isolated candidates making unsupported claims of election fraud,” Fischer added. “It’s really evolved into a well-funded, coordinated infrastructure of activists and advocacy organizations that has transformed the fringe conspiracy theories into a cornerstone of the conservative movement…Of particular concern are the election denial candidates running for secretary of state positions, potentially putting an elected official who has denied the integrity of a free and fair election at the helm of election administration in a particular state.” More here.


How Workers Explain Trump’s Tanking Polls

From “What Trump Voters Say About The Economy Now As His Approval Slips With White Working-Class Voters” by Tomas Kassahun at USA Today:

The latest poll numbers from various sources show that Donald Trump is facing growing disapproval from white working-class voters, mainly because many are concerned about how the president is handling the economy. According to USA Today, data from CBS News, NPR, Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos show a similar trend in Trump’s latest approval ratings.

What does the latest data show about Donald Trump’s approval rating?

According to a CBS News-YouGov poll published in May, 54% of white noncollege voters disapprove of Trump’s performance. That number increased from 32% in February 2025.

Another poll from NPR/PBS/Marist, published in June, surveyed the same demographic and found that 49% of voters disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Meanwhile, a Fox News poll from April showed a 51% disapproval rating for Trump. In June, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found a 48% disapproval rating for the president. That number increased from 34% earlier this year.

“The decline is significant given that White working-class voters were a pretty stable support between 2016 and 2020 for Trump after trending Republican since the early 1990s,” Noam Lupu, a Vanderbilt University political science professor, told USA Today.

Why the working class showing increasing disapproval of Donald Trump

The increasing cost of essentials such as gas and food, caused by the war with Iran and tariffs, appears to be contributing to the growing disapproval of Trump.

Ashton Reed, a 22-year-old voter who was laid off from his HVAC job, is among those concerned about the economy. Although he voted for Trump in 2024, Reed is disappointed with the results.

More here.


Political Strategy Notes

The meltdown of Graham Platner’s campaign for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat now held by Susan Collins, in combination with the Supreme Court ruling, which “rolled back a longstanding restriction on the use of party funds to directly benefit candidates,” makes winning a Democratic majority of the U.S. Senate highly problematic at best and highly unlikely at worst. As Fredreka Schouten and John Fritze report in “How the Supreme Court’s campaign finance ruling gives Republicans a major midterm boost” at CNN Politics,”The Republican National Committee, for instance, entered June with more than $125 million in available cash and no unpaid bills. By contrast, the Democratic National Committee had a negative balance, with nearly $15 million remaining in its coffers but more than $18 million in debt…“The DNC is in an atrocious fundraising position,” Sean Cooksey, a former Federal Election Commission chairman who previously served as Vance’s chief legal adviser in the White House, told CNN. In a social media post earlier this month, Cooksey predicted a favorable ruling would leave Republicans “with nuclear weapons” and the DNC with “one of those Wile E. Coyote guns with a flag that says Bang!” Platner’s meltdown was just the icing on the cake. Even before he decided to pull out of the race, the Supreme Court ruling alone may have doomed Democratic hopes for a Sente majority. Still it’s not impossible that Dems can pull it off. But they have to run the best possible substitute for Platner.

At Axios, Josephine Walker reports “These Democrats could replace Platner in Maine’s Senate race,” and writes: “Former State Senate President Troy Jackson was the third-place finisher in Maine’s Democratic gubernatorial primary and is widely viewed as progressives’ preferred candidate…Jackson’s blue-collar background and existing statewide campaign infrastructure could ease a transition to a Senate campaign…Outgoing Gov. Janet Mills sought the Senate nomination before suspending her campaign as Platner surged in the polls.” However, “Mills has not committed to reentering the race. She is 78 and has said she would serve only one term if elected.”…Former gubernatorial candidate Nirav Shah is best known for leading Maine through the COVID-19 pandemic as director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2019 to 2023…Jordan Wood is a former congressional aide who worked in Washington and later served as executive director of a pro-democracy organization focused on election integrity…Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is coming off a failed gubernatorial bid, giving her an existing campaign organization, donor network and statewide name recognition…She was previously the Democratic Senate nominee in 2014, losing to Collins by over 30 percentage points…Dan Kleban is a political newcomer and the co-founder of Maine Beer Company…He says he relates to voters because of his working-class roots, student loan debt and describes himself as a pragmatic, “get-shit-done Democrat.” There was some buzz about actor Patrick Dempsey or political commentator Heather Cox Richardson entering the race, but both of them have said it isn’t going to happen.

In “Graham Platner and the Working-Class Fetish. This bloc won’t be wooed by cosplay and pandering,” Matthew Cooper writes at Washington Monthly: “One lesson: Do not fetishize working-class voters. Court them, of course. Obviously, this bloc has befuddled Democrats in recent years. But the idea that nominating a working-class Democrat would sway working-class voters was always reductionist and absurd. Democratic Brahmins like Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy did just fine with working-class voters. Sherrod Brown grew up in a comfortable home and went to Yale. He was elected to the U.S. Senate from Ohio three times in part because of his connection with working-class voters, and today he faces good odds of returning to the Senate from a Buckeye State that’s gotten tougher for Democrats. Working-class voters have supported Republican billionaires like the president and candidates such as Jim Justice, the U.S. senator and former governor from West Virginia who ran an inherited coal empire, for gosh sakes. The notion that they need to see someone like themselves in higher office is condescending…I don’t know the best way for Democrats to win enough working-class voters to take back the U.S. Senate and the presidency, but Platneresque pandering surely isn’t it. This magazine has presented a series of ideas as both good policy and good politics to woo these voters—vigorous antitrust enforcement, widespread broadband access, Medicare prices for all, outreach to rural voters, and avoiding cultural pitfalls such as the ungainly phrase “LatinX,” among many others. But there’s no panacea. This huge and heterogeneous bloc will need to be wooed because there is no such thing as a white knight with a gravelly voice perfect for truck ad voiceovers. “Identity politics” is often a cheap and meaningless charge aimed at minorities or liberals. But in Platner’s case, identity really was everything. Biography was destiny. The personal was political.” More here.

You want some good news? Try Emily Singer’s “Here’s another sign that Democrats are building a blue wave” at Daily Kos, which includes these observations: “Historic trends and current polling have shown that November’s midterm elections are very likely to be a blue wave, with Democrats favored to win control of the U.S. House, flip multiple gubernatorial mansions and state legislatures, and possibly even take back the Senate…For the third month in a row, Democrats gained more new voter registrants than Republicans, according to pollster John Couvillon, who has been tracking party registration data for years…Couvillon found that Democrats added 83,000 new registrants in June, while Republicans added 64,000…Democrats out-registering Republicans reverses what had been a bad trend for the party, as the Democratic Party had seen membership dwindle since 2020…In fact, the Democratic voter registration slide was one of the early signs that the 2024 election was not going to go Democrats’ way. That year, according to Gallup, more people identified with Republicans than Democrats…But now that trend is flipping… Even more promising for Democrats is that new Democratic registrants are popping up in places that have competitive statewide contests…For example in Nevada—where Democrats are trying to win back the governor’s mansion this fall—Democrats added 5,020 new voters in June while Republicans added 1,820…In Iowa—where Democrats are looking to flip the governor’s mansion, a U.S. Senate seat, and as many as three U.S. House districts—Democrats added 25,245 new registrants in June while Republicans added 14,781…And in Nebraska—home to a sleeper Senate race and multiple competitive House contests—Democrats gained 559 voters in June while Republicans lost 126 registrants.” More here.


Political Strategy Notes

Excerpts from. “Working-Class Zeroes” by Jack Butler at The Wall Street Journal. Journal: “The best way for politicians to appeal to voters now, especially those considered “normal” or “working-class,” is apparently to assume the worst of them…The belief that voters aren’t merely tolerant of authenticity, even—especially—in the form of indecency, but actively seek it out, isn’t only held by Democrats. In an interview last week, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat challenged Vice President JD Vance on the Trump administration’s “tone of aggressive uncharity to people who aren’t on board with the administration’s policies.” Mr. Vance disputed this contention. “Tonal arguments are ways of, frankly, policing working-class ways of communication and covering them in elite preferences,” he said…In this understanding, only prissy establishmentarians object to coarse rhetoric, which is the true expression of both working-class policies and the working-class argot…Yes, there are people whose early and consistent obsession with the idea of wielding power drives them to a kind of ruthless box-checking and ladder-climbing that can seem robotic…It’s hard to think of a more egregious put-down of voters than that their leaders can better represent them by acting worse. Voters themselves can decide how they feel about this condescension.” More here.

In “Democratic insurgents are winning on economics, not culture,” David C. Barker writes at Brookings: “Some recent Democratic congressional primaries have led a segment of observers to conclude that, as one political observer noted, it’s “Bernie’s party now.” Despite the leftist-versus-centrist scorecard being muddled overall, with moderates scoring victories in several key contests, many Democratic Party stalwarts are wringing their hands at what looks like an unmistakable leftward trajectory…Indeed, candidates backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and other self-described democratic socialists—such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani—have racked up a string of successes. In June, a series of incumbent U.S. lawmakers were unseated by insurgent progressive challengers in Washington, D.C., New York City, and Denver…In the main, the 2026 primaries have not been a story of center versus left. They’ve been insurgent versus establishment, outsider versus insider, populist versus elitist, pugilist versus accommodationist. The winner in Pennsylvania is a firefighter. The winner in Ohio is an iron worker. The winner in Montana is a former smokejumper. Platner is an oyster farmer. All are fresh political faces. Across the country, the Democratic rank and file are exhorting their Washington wannabes to confront the conventional order, echoing, in form if not content, the populist clamor that has remade the Republican Party.” More here.

Bhaskar Sunkara writes in “Progressives are winning in American cities. Can they win rural voters too?” at The Guardian: “Andrew Mamo, a spokesperson for the centrist recruitment outfit The Bench, put a number on it: leftwing candidates have “a ceiling of 30% in swing districts”, even as they clear 50% in New York City…The easy reply is that DSA now has chapters in 47 states across the country and a few wins in the heart of Trump country. That’s true, and it isn’t enough, because even if we don’t trust Mamo’s number, the broader progressive movement is plainly struggling across much of the country…As Jared Abbott of the Center for Working Class Politics noted, of the nearly 100 members of the Congressional Progressive caucus in 2024, exactly one represented a mostly rural district: Teresa Leger Fernández of New Mexico…Bernie Sanders, the most successful socialist in American history, endorsed nobody like her in 2022. Rural and rural-suburban districts make up 41% of the House and a larger share of most state legislatures. Democrats have often figured out how to win a thin majority without them. They haven’t figured out how to keep one, and they won’t, because the system isn’t built for a party crammed into a dozen metros.” More here.

“As historian Michael Kazin has demonstrated in his party history, What It Took to Win, Democratic successes have mainly resulted from advocacy for the economic interests of the working and middle classes, and against opponents who champion the interests of the rich,” Harold Meyerson writes in “Encircling the Royalists: Democrats finally show up to the class war” at The American Prospect. When Democrats fail, it’s often because they’re reluctant, or simply opposed, to advocate against the domination of big money, which also weakens their standing as working-class champions… FORTUNATELY FOR DEMOCRATS, the very rich have been hard at work convincing the public to hate their guts. Where Steve Jobs was once hailed as an innovator providing smartphones to the world, with a personal profile that tended more toward asceticism than conspicuous consumption, the current crop of Silicon Valley billionaires are not only ostentatious in their spending but overtly hostile to employee rights, consumer interests, democratic forms of government, racial egalitarianism, and, at least in the case of Elon Musk, normal life. Through their indifference to the effects of social media on children (and the rest of us), and their huge investments in AI and the data centers required to power it, they’ve become the promoters of the most widely feared 21st-century phenomena. Not since John D. Rockefeller, Jay Gould, Cornelius Vanderbilt, and Henry Clay Frick have we had such a crop of oligarchs. That the Musks and the Bezoses, the Zuckerbergs and the Brins, the Thiels and the Andreessens have turned themselves into the financial base of Trumpism—both the man and his madness—has likely created a reciprocal downward pull on the approval rating of both Trump and themselves…Democrats should be climbing over each other to welcome their hatred.” More here.