In dry political science terms, “working majority” refers to a majority in a legislative body or to a full government trifecta, where a single party controls the presidency and both chambers of Congress, along with a favorable Supreme Court majority. Boiled down, for Dems this means 60 solid votes in the U.S. Senate, plus majority control, including the speakership, of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court and a majority of the Supreme Court.

You want a formula? WM = the Presidency +Majority of House of Reps. – RINOS or DINOS + filibuster-proof majority of SENATE – RINOS or DINOS + voting majority of Supreme Court justices + party discipline.

Thus, a ‘working majority’ is a higher standard of political accomplishment than a ‘trifecta.’ WM>Trifecta.

That’s what is needed to pass good legislation and make it stick. The last time Democrats had one was during the LBJ Administration. Presidents of more modest achievements, including Clinton, Obama and Biden had brief “Trifectas.”

Clinton’s trifecta lasted from 1993-94, during which he signed into law some significant reforms, including the Family and Medical Leave Act and the Brady Bill, the last landmark gun control legislation, which has “prevented more than 3 million gun sales to domestic abusers, felons, fugitives and other dangerous people.” Clinton’s trifecta came to an end in 1994, when The GOP secured majorities of both Houses of congress. He also presided over a remarkable period of economic expansion, though somewhat clouded by his controversial embrace of NAFTA.

President Obama had a shrunken trifecta window with a filibuster proof, 60-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, which lasted just 72 legislative days, during which he, with strong support from Speaker Pelosi, managed to narrowly pass ‘Obamacare.’ It is estimated that the Affordable Care Act has also saved at least 27,400 lives and gave Medicaid coverage to 40 million people. Obama’s trifecta ended in the 2010 midterms, when Republicans won back majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

President Biden had a very weak trifecta from 2021-23. He never had a filibuster-proof majority in congress, because the senate was split 50-50, with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote. Biden’s accomplishments are impressive, given his weak, short-lived trifecta, including his massive infrastructure investment bill and the CHIPS act, both of which strengthened the U.S. economy.  Democrats picked up a senate seat in 2021, which gave them a 51-49 majority, but which included Manchin and Sinema, who could not be counted on to support every item in the Democrats’ legislative agenda.

In 2024, Republicans won majority control of both the House and the Senate and secured the presidency, establishing a trifecta lite. They did not get a filibuster-proof, 60 vote majority in the Senate. But they tightened up the slack with party discipline and protected it with Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Supreme Court packing. McConnell did not increase the size of the high court. But he effectively packed the court with Republicans by manipulating procedure to deny Democrats any possibility of liberal court nominees getting a fair hearing.

Democrats haven’t had a reliable working majority since the days of LBJ. That’s about 55 years. That’s a long streak of failure, which has not gone unnoticed by voters. That’s not on the Republicans; That’s on us.

LBJ did have a stoke of good luck. In addition to Democrats having 68 Senators after the 1964 elections.  He inherited a U.S. Supreme Court, which took its responsibility to issue morally sound verdicts in consonance with the Constitution. Those days are so gone.

LBJ goosed landmark reforms out of his WM, including the historic Civil Rights legislation of his era, Medicare and Medicaid. His quest for a second term, however, was thwarted by the Vietnam War. But he got a lot done in his Overton Window, and was arguably more astute in manipulating congress than any other president.

One could build an argument that the lack of party discipline has been a common denominator for Dems in the 21^st century, as well as the last third of the 20^th century. It is to some extent built-in liberal political parties, which prioritize pluralistic values. A political party that doesn’t win working majorities for more than half a century is in big trouble, regardless of the reasons why.

Today’s Republicans have turned their trifecta into a functional WM. They have real party discipline. There are no GOP moderates with power at the federal level. Gone are the ‘Gypsy Moth’ Republicans of LBJ’s era. There are some GOP moderates in the media. But they are mostly barking at the train as it whizzes past them.

Republicans have functional trifecta control of government now, and look at what they are doing – dividing the country in rancorous debate; violating legal rights; masked thugs rounding up innocent people and sending them to prison in other countries without any due process whatsoever; militarizing U.S. cities; screwing working people to give huge tax breaks to big business; and gutting the separation of powers and checks and balances – and consequently the Constitution.

This leaves Democrats at a crossroads with three paths: 1. Move to the left on social issues. But there are few examples that this wins elections outside of big cities; 2. Stay the course and hope that common sense will prevail in the upcoming elections. That’s betting the ranch on an inside straight. 3. Move to the center on some key issues, and take some votes away from Republicans.

Which seems the best bet to you?

Leaders with LBJ’s skill-set are scarce in American history. Right now, even an effective messenger would brighten Democratic prospects.

Should Democrats somehow win a WM or a functional trifecta in the not-too-distant future, however, they should take a cool look at structural reforms to increase their power, including Supreme Court Expansion, which does not require a constitutional amendment. Their mantra should be that “the Republicans have already packed the court” and expansion is needed to get America back on a healthy moderate track. Dems should also look at reforms to establish direct popular election of the President and filibuster reform to enhance their senate strength. Republicans have no doubts about doing what is needed to grab and hold power. Democrats must do likewise, if they want to survive and rule.

If you had to pick the marquee political contest for 2025, the Virginia governorship election would be a good choice.  The current Governor of that state is a Republican, who can’t run again because of Virginia’s one-term law. But the trend line in Virginia seems to favor Democrats.  Here’s what Kyle Kondik writes about it in his latest update at Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) led Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) by roughly 10 points apiece in a trio of nonpartisan polls released over the past week from Emerson College, George Mason University’s Schar School/Washington Post, and the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, and Spanberger remains clearly favored to flip the Virginia governorship…About 390,000 votes have already been cast in Virginia as of Tuesday, about 12% of the total votes cast in the last gubernatorial cycle, 2021 (3.29 million). Voter data firm L2 models the early votes cast so far as clearly Democratic leaning, which is unsurprising in Virginia…Prior to this story, polling generally suggested Spanberger was doing better than Jones and state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D), the party’s lieutenant governor nominee. However, all three were leading. While Emerson did not ask about the down-ballot races, the Schar School and Wason Center polls are illustrative: the former showed Spanberger up 55%-43%, Hashmi up 49%-45%, and Jones up 51%-45%; the latter had the Democrats leading 52%-42%, 48%-39%, and 49%-43% respectively.” You can read more about this race here.

In “Democrats push for probe of shady border czar’s alleged bribe scandal,” at Daily Kos, Oliver Willis writes: “House Judiciary Committee Democrats are demanding a federal investigation into President Donald Trump’s decision to hire “border czar” Tom Homan, despite an ongoing FBI bribery probe…On Wednesday, the committee’s Democrats, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, sent a letter to Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward, who led the effort to vet Trump’s candidates earlier in the year…“Who knew about the Homan cash bribery scandal, when did they know it, and why was Mr. Homan appointed ‘Border Czar’ even in the face of such damning evidence of his taking bribes for government contracts?” the letter says…The inquiry follows up Attorney General Pam Bondi’s effort to stonewall on the issue, dodging questions from Democratic senators during a hearing on Tuesday. Bondi was asked about the $50,000 that Homan reportedly received as part of a sting operation after he allegedly agreed to help undercover FBI agents get border security contracts.” More here.

James D. Zirin profiles “The Roberts Court at 20: John Roberts, the “institutionalist” chief justice, has given the president kingly powers, overturned a Reagan-era regulation doctrine, and issued two decades of wrecking ball opinions. It’s only going to get worse” at Washington Monthly  and writes: “As the Supreme Court begins its new term this first Monday in October, it’s worth noting that an important anniversary went largely unnoticed on September 29. It was the 20th anniversary of John Roberts being sworn in as chief justice of the United States and the beginning of the Roberts Court…Roberts’s appointment came during George W. Bush’s annus horribilis—a year after the president’s 2004 reelection, when his administration mishandled Hurricane Katrina, watched its invasion of Iraq unravel, and made an ill-fated run at partially privatizing Social Security. Roberts was initially tapped to replace Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, who had announced her pending retirement on July 1, 2005. However, when Chief Justice William Rehnquist died in September 2005, Bush only waited two days to tap Roberts for the Chief’s seat and his White House Counsel, Harriet Miers, for the O’Connor vacancy. In case you’ve forgotten or are too young to remember, Miers withdrew after conservatives decried her lack of experience and worried about her right-wing bona fides. Bush got the message, dispensed with appointing another woman (or cipher) to the Court, and named a right-wing favorite, Samuel Alito of the Second Circuit, to fill the associate justice’s seat…Twenty years into the Roberts Court, the Court’s public approval is close to its lowest since such measures began.”

Zirin adds, “During Roberts’s tenure, the law has shifted significantly toward fulfilling many of the conservative legal movement’s main priorities, such as the doctrine of the “unitary executive,” which it has nearly fully embraced. This weakens the separation of powers that has served as a check and balance against a “man on horseback” for over 230 years. The largest number of Americans ever surveyed says the Court is now too conservative. Iconic liberal Justices Oliver Wendell Holmes, Louis Brandeis, Hugo Black, William O. Douglas, Earl Warren, and William Brennan must all be turning over in their graves. Justices who favored a humble, modest court that deferred to legislatures wherever possible, such as Felix Frankfurter, must also be spinning…Now, the Roberts court may be tilting even further to the right. The doctrine of stare decisis has always been the keystone of our common law, which we inherited from England. Stare decisis means that courts must stand by what they decide. The doctrine ensures consistency and predictability in the law…Stare decisis is sensible because, among other reasons, it protects those who have organized their affairs based on a court’s existing rulings. Why make a will or cut a business agreement unless you are confident the courts will enforce its provisions?…there’s reason to fear stare decisis is disappearing. It didn’t stop the Court from overturning Roe v. Wadeand decades of case law on regulation. Just last week, the Court ignored stare decisis, almost overruling the 1935 case Humphrey’s Executor by allowing Trump to remove, at least temporarily, a commissioner on the Federal Trade Commission—the same agency involved in that New Deal-era decision…Now the Court seems ready to go after Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a permanent nationwide provision of the 1965 statute that bars electoral practices with a discriminatory “effect.” The Rehnquist Court upheld the discriminatory effect standard that Congress wrote into Section 2 in 1982, and that President Ronald Reagan signed. The Roberts Court seems eager to strike it down 43 years later.” Read more here.

An excerpt from “Democrats are defying the conventional wisdom on government shutdowns: Democrats took a big gamble on the government shutdown — and polls suggest they have a surprisingly strong hand so far” by Zeeshan Aleem at MSNBC.com: “Political scientists and polling experts have pointed out that in previous government shutdowns (or near shutdowns) the party that tries to leverage the government’s closure for a policy win typically loses the battle of public opinion. But recent polling data suggests that Democrats are, at least for now, looking unusually strong in their quest to force Republicans to make concessions on health care policy…During past shutdowns or near-shutdowns, voters have typically blamed the party not in the White House — except for when Trump himself instigated a shutdown in late 2018. This time, the polls look different. A Washington Post pollconducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that the Democrats were looking strikingly strong: 47% of U.S. adults blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blamed Democrats and 23% said they weren’t sure. Part of that margin was because the share of Democrats blaming Trump and Republicans (87%) was larger than that of Republicans blaming Democrats (67%). But political independents were also more than twice as likely to say Trump and Republicans were to blame for the shutdown than Democrats, 50% to 22%…To be clear, this survey was conducted on the very first day of the shutdown. If the shutdown extends for a long time and more government services shutter, it is possible that public sentiment will shift against Democrats. But that starting margin in that poll suggests Democrats have some room to breathe.”

Read “Democrats see a path to flipping the crime debate: Democrats say new polling gives them a roadmap to neutralizing one of Republicans’ advantages” by Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker at Politico. Kashinsky and Booker write that “Democrats are pushing their candidates to go on the offense on crime ahead of the 2026 midterms, seeing upside in what’s been one of their weakest electoral issues…A private polling memo that shows potential openings for the party to peel voters away from Republicans on one of their core issues is being distributed to House Democrats and their campaign committees, and was shared exclusively with POLITICO…The battleground-district survey from Global Strategy Group — commissioned by gun-safety advocacy group Giffords and House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership — offers a bleak assessment of Democrats’ starting point: 89 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed want their Congress member to take steps to keep them safe, but only 38 percent trust Democrats over Republicans with that task…Voters also reported preferring Republicans to Democrats with preventing and reducing crime and cracking down on violent crime — gaps that grew among swing voters…But, in a hint of hope for the party looking to neutralize a weakness President Donald Trump will exploit next year, those voters swung toward Democrats in all four categories after hearing messaging acknowledging crime is a problem and showing steps the party has taken to increase safety. Specifically, pollsters cited cracking down on gun trafficking and strengthening firearm background checks. The persuasion effort included criticisms of GOP cuts to gun-violence prevention funding, the Trump administration’s attempts to roll back firearm regulations and Republicans’ ties to pro-gun groups…The double-digit swings gave Democrats a 2-point advantage when respondents were asked about crime reduction, 4 points on keeping people safe and 6 points on crime prevention. The shifts were even more pronounced among swing voters…” More here.

There is good news for Dems about 2025’s most important election, from “New poll shows Abigail Spanberger with a double-digit lead in Virginia’s governor race” by WTOP Staff at WTOP News: “The Washington Post/Schar School poll found Spanberger ahead of Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 points among likely voters — 55% to 43%…Spanberger also holds a 13-point advantage among registered voters overall…This poll, conducted last week and surveying more than 1,000 registered voters in Virginia, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.” The article quotes Scott Clement, polling director for The Washington Post, who notes: “Spanberger is benefiting from a few things. One, most voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance in Virginia and this is a really common pattern in Virginia the year after presidential election that tends to push back against the president, sort of an early warning sign of the midterms. Down to the actual voters. Voters have a lot of different concerns. But one of the big patterns helping Spanberger is she has a big lead among political independents, 27 percentage points. She’s also more popular than Winsome Earle-Sears personally. So she’s got a couple things at her back…It’s a wide lead and we’ve seen these races tighten sometimes in the final month, not always getting back to a full comeback. But it’s a significant lead. If it holds to election day, would be one of the larger victories for governor in Virginia…We asked people to rate how important Trump was in their vote for governor, and you had a big majority saying that it was at least fairly important in their vote. It was particularly important for people who disapprove of Trump, but also for people who approve. And we asked the same question eight years ago during the governor’s election, then and more people say that Trump is important to their vote today than they did eight years ago. So it seemed very high at the time. It’s even higher this time around.”

Also check out “Americans favor Republicans on key issues, but prefer Democrats to control next Congress” by Alex Tyson at Ipsos.com, who writes: “Americans trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party to better handle issues like the economy, immigration and crime, according to a new Washington Post/Ipsos poll. And when it comes to the parties’ ideological positions, 54% describe the Democratic Party as “too liberal,” compared with a somewhat smaller share (49%) who describe the views of the Republican Party as “too conservative.”…Nonetheless, the survey finds that by a 53% to 42% margin, Americans would rather see the next Congress controlled by Democrats to “act as a check on Trump” rather than controlled by Republicans “to support Trump’s agenda.”…The poll also explores views of executive power and finds that 62% of Americans believe President Trump has “gone beyond his authority” since taking office.” Further,

• Just over half of Americans say the views of the Democratic Party are “too liberal” (54%), compared with a smaller share (31%) who describe the party’s views as “about right.” Relatively few (12%) describe the Democratic Party as “too conservative.”
• When it comes to the Republican Party, 37% view their issue positions as about right. Still, the most commonly held view among Americans is that the GOP’s positions are “too conservative” (49%). Just 10% say they are “too liberal.”
• A majority of Americans say Donald Trump has exceeded his authority as president and large shares say the Trump administration should follow federal court rulings. President Trump’s overall job ratings remain steady with 43% expressing approval.
  • Overall, 62% of Americans say Donald Trump has gone beyond his authority as president, while 36% say he has acted within his authority since taking office. In comparison, 34% say that former President Joe Biden went beyond his authority when he was president, while 63% say he acted within his authority.
  • With federal courts reviewing a number of cases involving the Trump administration, 87% of Americans say the administration should follow court rulings if they determine the administration has acted illegally. Just 11% of Americans think the administration should ignore such rulings.
  • About three-in-ten (31%) rate the state of the nation’s economy as excellent or good, while 68% rate it as not so good or poor. The percentage of Americans rating the economy positively is slightly higher than previous polling in April (26%) and February (26%).
  • A majority of Americans say it is a bad time (63%) to find a quality job in America today; far fewer (36%) say it is a good time to find a quality job.
  • Americans are largely critical of the impact of tariffs on prices. A majority (70%) think the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods are making prices go up. One in four say they are not making much difference (25%).
  • The public remains split on the impact of Trump’s economic policies more broadly. A plurality say Trump’s policies will put the economy on a weaker foundation (43%), compared with 31% who say his policies will put the economy on a stronger foundation. One in five (20%) say it is too soon to say.” Lots more here.

There will be plenty of confusion in the coming days about what the Republican shutdown means to the daily lives of Americans. GOP ‘splainers and spin-meisters will surely try to shift the blame from themselves, even though they control all branches of the federal government. The Politico staff helps to set things straight with their article, “Government shutdown 2025: A guide to what’s still open, what’s closed and what’s fuzzy.” An excerpt: “The government shutdown that began Wednesday is set to furlough food inspectors, park rangers and millions of other federal workers in Washington and across the nation. Some are only heading to their offices for a few hours to “undertake orderly shutdown activities.” The federal courts and some government agencies like the IRS have enough money to run with for a short time, burning through their reserves of taxpayer funds until the hourglass drains their cash completely. But others have already shuttered for everyone not deemed “essential” by their agencies….The Commerce Department, an agency key to promoting U.S. exports and enforcing trade policy, is retaining about 20 percent of its staff, with furloughs affecting a range of sectors including weather, climate, and law enforcement programs…The shutdown also pauses most enforcement inspections and regulatory work conducted by EPA, slowing the Trump administration’s efforts to repeal a suite of climate rules. New air and water permitting gets waylaid as well, which, if the shutdown continues for a significant period, could hit companies looking to expand their facilities.”

“While Social Security checks, mail, student loan bills and funds for Ukraine will still be delivered,” The Politico staff notes, “millions of workers are set to suffer financial hardship — at least among those who still have jobs after months of deep staffing cuts and a deferred resignation program…Last week, the Office of Management and Budget directed agencies to develop plansfor firing employees if a shutdown happened…Federal workers traditionally get back pay when shutdowns end, but contractors and others whose businesses depend on the federal government won’t. Overall, the economic consequences of a shutdown will rest on how long the standoff lasts…The Interior Department, which oversees the National Park Service, is keeping park roads, lookouts, trails and open-air memorials open during the shutdown, according to the agency’s latest contingency plan. But it’s also furloughing 64 percent of NPS staff while the funding impasse persists…The FAA is by far the Transportation Department’s largest division and on a normal day houses more than 80 percent of the agency’s employees. A quarter of them are expected to be furloughed…More than a million people serving in the U.S. military are now working without pay.” (Wondering how the military brass that flew across 10 time zones for yesterday’s scolding feel about this)…Elective surgeries and procedures in military medical and dental facilities get postponed…A shutdown plan released Monday said the IRS would be able to use special funding that Democrats enacted in 2022 to avoid furloughing any of its almost 75,000 employees for the first five business days after a funding lapse. What happens if a shutdown stretches beyond that isn’t clear yet…

The Politico staff writers note further, that “the Department of Health and Human Services is furloughing some 40 percent of its employees just a few months after weathering particularly deep staffing cuts under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr…The National Institutes of Health — the planet’s biggest public funder of biomedical research — is furloughing three-quarters of its staff…Roughly two-thirds of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s staff are being furloughed. Coordination with state and local health departments on opioid overdose prevention, HIV prevention, and diabetes prevention has ceased, according to the agency’s plans. And while staff can continue to gather data about rates of infectious diseases, analysis of that information is on hold…Kennedy, who has said he wants to shrink the CDC, may also use the standoff in Congress to permanently boot employees that don’t go along with the Trump administration’s directives…The Department of Veteran Affairs is not being hit like many other agencies due to appropriations already awarded by Congress. Benefits checks will continue to be processed, and medical appointments at VA health centers won’t be interrupted…But officials are shuttering several support phone services, including the GI Bill Hotline, until the funding impasse is resolved. Regional VA benefits offices will be closed, and public affairs outreach efforts will end. Career counseling and transition assistance programs are also halted…Burials will continue at veterans cemeteries, but department workers will not permanently place headstones or maintain the grounds at those sites…….Agriculture Department food safety inspectors, stationed at the nation’s meat and poultry slaughterhouses, will remain on the job — without a paycheck. The FDA, which oversees approximately 80 percent of the U.S. food supply, will have to triage its preventative food safety work…Corporate America has been eagerly waiting for work to gear up at both the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Trump — the agencies in charge of overseeing stock, futures and some cryptocurrency trading. Now, the agencies are operating with skeleton crews…According to a contingency plan compiled in mid-September by the Department of Homeland Security, less than 900 of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s around 2,500 personnel are exempt from furloughs.” Read more here.

As regards the other big Tuesday story, The Administration’s Quantico meeting hectoring military brass, photographs of the audience’s steely silence explains the reception. If you want a short synopsis, however, check out “Trump and Hegseth spark alarm about domestic use of military: At an unprecedented gathering of the nation’s top military brass, Trump and Hegseth spoke of using force in America” by Blaise Malley at Salon. An excerpt: “President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivered remarks that have stirred intense reactions from political commentators, military experts and activists…Speaking to an audience of hundreds of senior military leaders at Quantico, Virginia, both men outlined their vision for a radically redefined U.S. military, emphasizing “lethality” and “warrior ethos” while promoting controversial shifts in military culture…Historian Timothy Snyder, an expert on authoritarianism at the University of Toronto, interpreted the event as an ominous signal that Trump and Hegseth are more focused on domestic enemies and ideological battles than real-world military strategy…“The ‘war fighting’ and ‘lethality’ they plan is inside their own country and comes from conflicts inside their own minds,” Snyder wrote on social media…Marquette University political scientist Risa Brooks, who specializes in civilian-military relations, echoed that concern, warning that the speeches reflected an effort to realign the military with a partisan political agenda. “This is not about enforcing standards,” she said, “it’s about inculcating a particular value system within the officer corps.”…Brooks described the speech as more than simply “performative,” arguing that its intent was serious: to reshape military leadership in line with the administration’s values…“The ultimate aim,” she noted on BluSky, “is that people will no longer expect the military to serve the public at large, but that its goal and purpose is to advance the interest of one faction or party.” More here.

From “Trump Takes Aim at Minimum Wage: The current administration continues its assault on the working class” by Aurelia Glass at The Progressive: “For months, the Trump Administration has been waging a multi-front war on the working class: ending collective bargaining rights for more than one million federal workers, ripping up signed union contracts, muzzling the agency tasked with overseeing private sector bargaining laws, and strangling manufacturing jobs while driving up costs for working families with costly tariffs…Now President Donald Trump and his team are opening a new frontier by attacking minimum wage protections that benefit federal contractors, disabled workers, and home care workers… The first casualty was the minimum wage for federal contractors. In 2021, the Biden Administration upped the minimum wage for private-sector workers on federal contracts, giving an estimated 327,300 workers a raise of about $9,256 per year. When the Trump Administration assumed office this past January, these workers were earning at least $17.75 per hour—more than twice the current federal minimum wage. However, in March, the Trump Administration revoked President Joe Biden’s Executive Order, reducing the allowable minimum wage on federal contracts to $13.30 per hour… Next, the Trump Administration reversed a policy that would have prevented corporations from legally paying disabled workers far less than the minimum wage. Federal minimum wage law allows employers to apply for a certificate, called a Section 14(c) waiver, which allows them to pay some disabled workers an average of $4 an hour in some states, rather than the federal minimum wage of $7.25. As of July 2024, an estimated 38,000 people were earning subminimum wages due to these waivers, which are held by more than 600 employers…The Biden Administration was in the process of ending the use of these waivers. But as part of its agenda to “unleash prosperity through deregulation,” the Trump Administration withdrew the proposed rule change in July.” More here.

In “Working-Class Americans Are Hurting—And Traditional Statistics Aren’t Showing How Much: Recent data show the costs of groceries, healthcare, and electricity have all been rising faster than overall inflation,” Brad Reed writes at Common Dreams: “With the rising cost of groceries, housing, healthcare, and other essentials a central issue facing communities across the United States due to the Republican agenda, one expert believes that commonly cited economic statistics aren’t capturing the depth of working families’ struggles…Gene Ludwig, former US comptroller of the currency under President Bill Clinton, is arguing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) no longer delivers an accurate portrait of families’ hardships because it does not focus enough on the core costs that impact working people on a daily basis…As reported by Bloomberg on Monday, Ludwig believes the CPI tracks too many goods that are either luxury purchases or are only bought sporadically. A relevant measure of inflation, he told the outlet, should primarily include goods that are essential to living, such as groceries, housing, healthcare, and energy…Ludwig and his colleagues at the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity have developed their own measurement called True Living Cost (TLC), which focuses on core household needs and excludes items such as plane tickets and golf carts that are included in the CPI formula…Prices as measured by the TLC have grown 1.3 times faster than prices as measured by the traditional CPI over the last 24 years, which may explain why US consumer sentiment has remained low even during times when the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation have been falling…The biggest gap between TLC and CPI has been in measuring the cost of healthcare, as TLC shows that the rise in costs has been much more severe than what has been shown in traditional inflation statistics.” Read on here.

“Majorities of adults see decline of union membership as bad for the U.S. and working people,” Ted Van Green reports at the Pew Research Center. As Green writes, “Majorities of Americans see the large reduction in the share of workers represented by unions over the past several decades as a bad thing for both the United States and its working people…

• 60% of U.S. adults say the decline has been bad for the country.
• 62% say this has been bad for working people.

The share of U.S. workers who belong to a union has fallen since 1983, when 20.1% were union members. In 2024, 9.9% of U.S. workers were in a union…The share of Americans who say this has been bad for the country is up 6 percentage points since last year (from 54%). The increase has come entirely among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents:

• Today, 82% of Democrats say this decline has been bad for the country, up from 69% who said this a year ago.
• 85% of Democrats also say the decline in union membership has been bad for working people, up from 74% in 2024.

By contrast, majorities of Republicans and GOP leaners continue to say that the decline in union membership has been good for the country (62%) and for working people (59%)…There are sizable age, income and educational gaps within the GOP about the impact of the union membership decline on working people. (The patterns are very similar on the question of its impact on the country.)

• 52% of Republicans under 35 say the decline of unions has been very or somewhat bad for working people. Smaller shares of older Republicans say this, including just 27% of those ages 65 and older.
• Lower-income Republicans (47%) are somewhat more likely than their middle-income (39%) and upper-income (35%) counterparts to say this.

Read more here.

Alex Samuels reports that “Trump won’t even discuss protecting health care for millions at Daily Kos: “President Donald Trump has blown up talks to avoid a government shutdown—just days before funding runs out…Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to keep the lights on. Without a deal, federal agencies will close and thousands of workers will be furloughed. Republicans have proposed a stopgap bill to maintain funding through Nov. 21 while they work on full-year spending bills. Democrats, meanwhile, are using the looming deadline to push for health care protections—and they were supposed to press their case directly to Trump this week…Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries had requested a face-to-face meeting with the president to break the stalemate. By Tuesday morning, Trump had agreed. But just hours later, he changed his mind…In a Tuesday morning Truth Social post, Trump said he was canceling the sit-down with the two New York Democrats, dismissing it as pointless…Democrats want to protect health care for millions. Their proposal would reverse Republican-backed Medicaid cuts enacted under the GOP’s tax and immigration bill and extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire on Dec. 30…Republicans have flatly rejected rolling back the Medicaid cuts, calling it a nonstarter. And they’re accusing Democrats of using the threat of a shutdown to jam through their wish list…Schumer blasted Trump’s about-face, saying the president “ran away from the negotiating table before he even got there.”…“While Americans face rising costs and a Republican health care crisis, Trump would rather throw a tantrum than do his job,” Schumer told NBC News. “Democrats are ready to work to avoid a shutdown—Trump and Republicans are holding America hostage. Donald Trump will own the shutdown.”

From the toplines of a new poll by The Working Class Project:

• Working class voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing on lowering the cost of living, even as they remain split evenly on his overall approval and favorability.

• Working class voters prefer Democratic messaging focused on rewarding and valuing hard work vs. overhauling broken systems and criticizing the wealthy. This messaging helps improve Democrats’ standing among working class voters on the economy.

• Democrats face dual challenges on economic and cultural issues and need to address both. Calling out politicians’ obsession with social issues helps attract more working class support.

The poll of 3,000 working class voters was taken across 21 states from August 18-27. Overall, these self-identified working class voters supported President Trump by seven points in 2024, yet the poll found significant opportunities for Democrats in a generic ballot midterm matchup.”

“Pessimism about the direction of the country is growing among Republicans: Forty-nine percent of Republicans say things in the United States are heading the right direction down from 75% in June,” The Associated Press and the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center report. An excerpt: “Since June, the share of adults who say the country is on the wrong track increased 13 percentage points from 62% to 75%. The shift occurred primarily among Republicans. In June, 29% of Republicans said the country was heading in the wrong direction. That number is now 51%. The vast majority of Democrats have felt the country is headed in the wrong direction since Donald Trump won the election in 2024…Among Republicans, there are notable differences by age and gender: those under 45 are more likely than older Republicans (61% vs 43%) to say the country is off track, and Republican women are more likely than men (60% vs 43%) to share that view…Views on Donald Trump’s handling of the issues are highly partisan. Trump’s best issues are border security (55% approve) and crime (46%). Roughly 4 in 10 approve of his handling of health care, trade, the economy, the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians, foreign policy, and immigration…Overall, 39% of adults approve of the way Trump is handing his job as president and 60% disapprove…Roughly 60% of the public feels Trump has gone too far in imposing new tariffs on other countries, using presidential power to achieve his goals, and in using the military or federal law enforcement in U.S. cities…Nearly all Democrats believe Trump is overstepping in these policy areas. Most Republicans say Trump’s actions are about right, but nearly a quarter believe deploying the national guard and his using presidential powers are excessive, and about a third feel imposing new tariffs has gone too far…The nationwide poll was conducted September 11-15, 2025 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,183 adults. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.” More here.

In “Rural Americans Face Unprecedented Price Hikes for Health Care,” Jeanne Lambrew and Emma Ford write at The C entry Foundation: “The implications of actions by the Trump administration and congressional leadership are becoming increasingly clear: overall private health insurance marketplace premiums will climb at the same time as health care tax credits fall. This “double whammy” will disproportionately affect rural Americans…Specifically, new rules, tariffs, legislation, and inaction have contributed to the highest median proposed premium hikes for the individual market in the past five years: 18 percent as of August 6, 2025…At the same time, the scheduled drop in tax credits for health insurance marketplace premiums in January 2026 will increase out-of-pocket premiums by an average of 93 percent in HealthCare.gov states…According to this new analysis by The Century Foundation of thirty-two states, rural Americans will be disproportionately affected by imminent changes to marketplace coverage…Out-of-pocket premiums will increase on average by 107 percent for rural county residents compared to 89 percent for urban county residents—on top of national median increases of 18 percent…Looking at both premium increases and reliance on marketplace coverage, rural residents in states in the Upper Midwest and Southeast are at greatest risk of high prices and loss of health coverage due to recent changes in health policy.” Read more here.

Joanne Kenan explains “Why Voters Will Feel the Impact of GOP Health Cuts Before the Midterms” at Politico: “A full year before anyone casts their vote in November 2026 — meaning now, in the fall of 2025 — the American health care system will begin transitioning from an era of unprecedented expansion of coverage to an era of unprecedented cutbacks. And President Donald Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress will be easy to blame…Unless Congress reaches a deal fast on some expiring Obamacare provisions, insurance premiums are set to rise, often by double-digit percentages, in and out of Affordable Care Act exchanges. Hospitals are retrenching ahead of the massive cuts imposed by Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Altogether, around 14 million people will lose coverage in the coming decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected in August, with the first wave of losses beginning in months…And even if some of the changes in Trump’s sprawling law kick in after the 2026 elections, that doesn’t mean people won’t hear plenty about them beforehand. State legislatures will have to debate what or who to cut to fill gaping holes in their health care budgets. Health plans, providers and state Medicaid agencies will have to start educating the public about new rules established by the legislation, like Medicaid copays and work requirements…Then of course, there will be the actual political messaging, led by Democrats and advocacy groups who are ready to remind voters that the GOP cut health spending by $1 trillion while cutting taxes for the rich.” More here.

Stephen Neukam has a ‘scoop’ in his report that “Democrats lean into shutdown fight with alternative funding plan” at Axios: “Senate Democrats are expected to roll out their own government funding plan on Tuesday, Axios has learned, countering a just-unveiled House GOP proposal.

Why it matters: Democrats want to lay out a clear alternative to the short-term Republican plan as the two sides hunker down for yet another partisan showdown ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline to prevent a government shutdown.

• The Democratic proposal will include language to prevent President Trump from using rescissions to claw back funding — as he did earlier this year — as well as an extension of Affordable Care subsidies, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.
• Democratic leaders on both sides of the Capitol on Tuesday poured cold water on a GOP plan, which would fund the government through Nov. 20 and includes increased resources for lawmaker security.
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in a joint statement said the GOP plan “fails to meet the needs of the American people.”

The big picture: Democrats are preparing to make a shutdown fight all about health care, which they bet will win over voters.” More here.

From “Think Big for a Change, Democrats: Call This the “No Kings” Shutdown. The consultants will tell you that taking this stand against Trump is a political loser. But this time is different” by Michael Tomasky at The New Republic: “The Democrats have announced their table stakes with respect to a possible government shutdown. Work with us to extend Obamacare tax credits, they’ve told Republicans, or you won’t get our votes, and the government will be shuttered by the October 1 deadline…There are two good things to say about this. The first is that it sounds now like they’re more willing to roll the dice on a shutdown than they were in March, when Chuck Schumer decided against the move and gave Donald Trump and the Republicans a few Senate votes to avoid a shutdown. It was, under the circumstances, a defensible decision—but it came at a time when Trump and Elon Musk were shredding the federal government. The Democratic base, which desperately wanted their leadership to take a stand, was furious at the result. Famous last words, I know, but Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries seem to understand this today…The second good thing is that there’s substantive merit to the position. The tax credits were extended on a temporary basis by Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2021. They’re due to expire. Their expiration would mean that more than 20 million who receive these subsidies would have to pay more for the health care coverage, in some cases a lot more. So, all that is good…But … why am I yawning? I’m yawning because this plan just sounds so safe and poll-tested. I’m yawning because it is essentially playing defense (again)—and defending something they had already won. And mostly I’m yawning because Donald Trump is not merely a threat to the health care subsidies of a comparatively small minority of Americans—he’s a threat to our way of life, on countless levels.” More here.

In “Trump tramples Reagan’s tough-on-the-Kremlin legacy ahead of UK state visit,” Stephen Collinson writes at CNN Politics: ” Here’s how radically Donald Trump has changed the world, and America’s place in it…The first US president to sleep over at Windsor Castle, Ronald Reagan, was lambasted in Britain in 1982 by protesters who thought he was too tough on the hard men in the Kremlin…Trump, who will this week also stay at the home of England’s monarchs for 900 years, is accused of the opposite: constantly caving to Russia, especially with his latest Ukraine war climbdown…Before leaving for Britain on Tuesday, Trump wriggled out of his most recent deadline to slap punishing sanctions on Moscow. This came despite Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly embarrassing him by raining death on Ukrainian civilians following their Alaska summit last month. Trump left their chat convinced that peace was imminent and his Nobel Peace Prize was closer. Events have exposed his misjudgment…The US president has also been downplaying alarming incursions by Russian drones into NATO nations. His docility in the face of Moscow’s aggression (he suggested the violations might have been a mistake) would have astounded Reagan, whose policies helped the US win the Cold War nearly two-and-a-half decades before Trump trashed the GOP’s hawkish internationalism.”

Trump “posted a letter to NATO members on Truth Social saying he was ready to “do major sanctions on Russia,” Collinson adds. “But there was a caveat — alliance members must stop buying oil exports that bankroll Moscow’s war effort…“I am ready to ‘go’ when you are. Just say when?” Trump wrote…It’s a clever ruse. At first sight, the president’s statement seems inherently reasonable. Why are NATO states still purchasing Russian hydrocarbonsdespite seeing Russia as a mortal threat to their security?…But Trump’s offer was a feint. He established conditions that are unlikely ever to be met, thereby getting him off the hook yet again with Putin, whom he almost never exposes to significant US coercive power…Among the other concessions Trump demanded of NATO members was to join his trade war with China by imposing 50% to 100% tariffs on its goods in order to “break that grip” he says that Beijing has over Moscow. The post ignores the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance and not a trade bloc. And alliance members who themselves have been targeted by Trump’s tariffs, including those on the European Union and Canada, seem unlikely to respond to more bullying. In any case, such moves would likely be disastrous for their economies…Trump’s unwillingness to stand up to Putin — who is constantly seeking to divide the US from its European allies — could create dangerous scenarios…Facing no pushback from the US, Russia is becoming bolder, both on its targeting of missile and drone attacks in Ukraine and with its posture in Eastern Europe. As Trump insists Putin wants peace, Russian missiles have slammed into civilian targets all over Ukraine — hundreds of miles from the frontlines. A US-owned factory was hit, and EU offices in Kyiv were damaged.” Read more here.

From “The Path to Victory in 2026 — a Popular, Populist Agenda That Delivers for Working People” by Rep. Greg Cesar at Data for Progress: “In the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Democrats are once again searching for a message that can win back working-class voters, mobilize our base, and unify our party. Many Americans — especially non-college-educated voters and those outside major cities — still don’t feel like either party has their back. The question is: How do we earn their trust again?…New polling from Data for Progress points to a clear answer. A bold economic message — focused on holding billionaires accountable, cracking down on corporate greed, fighting political corruption, and delivering real, economic wins for working people — significantly outperforms a more traditional Democratic message centered on “defending the rule of law” and “promoting opportunity.” In the polling, a Democratic candidate running on this bold, populist message beats a Republican by 15 points — compared to just 6 points for a candidate running on the kind of generic messaging traditional Democratic consultants default to. That’s a 9-point boost — not from ideological purity, but from clarity and conviction…And this approach has support beyond Democratic voters. Across party lines, income levels, and education levels, bold economic populism inspires Americans — especially among the working-class voters we need most….Over the last few election cycles, Democrats have continued to lose credibility with American workers. And in 2026, we have an opportunity to rebuild trust — if we lead with a populist economic vision that’s as clear as it is popular. We see a progressive, populist Democrat leading a Republican candidate with non-college voters by 9 points, while a generic Democrat loses by 2. This strategy does not hinge on chasing specific voter demographics or compromising our core values as a party.’

“We must reclaim our identity as the party of working people,” Rep. Cesar adds “the Americans left behind while billionaires and special interests rig the rules of our politics and our economy…The agenda tested in this new polling is a commonsense roadmap for action. It includes cracking down on corporate price fixing, eliminating hidden junk fees, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, expanding Medicare benefits, and ending political corruption…Each of these ideas polls well with voters across the political spectrum, among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike. Majorities of voters with household incomes under $50,000 and voters without a college degree are strongly supportive of this agenda. But more importantly, this agenda shows that voters will support Democrats if we fight clearly for our voters and against special interests. This approach directly names the villains that Americans understand are rigging the system: corrupt politicians, price-gouging corporations, and billionaires hoarding wealth while working families fall further behind…The lesson is simple: When we name our opponents clearly — corruption, soaring costs, and concentrated wealth — and show how we’ll deliver for everyday Americans, we win…That’s why this polling should be a wake-up call — not just for progressives, but for the whole Democratic party.  We don’t need to copy Republican efforts to divide working Americans. We need to be the party that lowers costs, fights corruption, and takes on the billionaires of all political stripes…This is a chance to realign our party with working people across race and across geography — to turn a crisis of trust into a coalition for change. We should take it.”

In “The Eternal Social Justice Summer: A much-maligned new book asks a fair question: Why do the excesses of the left offend voters more than those of the right?,” Richard D. Kahlenberg writes at The Washington Monthly: “It is precisely because Donald Trump is wreaking havoc daily that it’s crucial to comprehend why so many of our fellow Americans came to dislike the Democrats even more than the unlikable and chaotic man they elected president. How is it that a November 2024 survey of working-class Americans found that 58 percent believed Democrats have moved “too far left,”  a share that is 11 points higher than the share that believed Republicans have moved “too far right” (47 percent)?…A healthy concern about racial equality, particularly among white elites, morphed into an unbalanced focus that many Americans, including many Americans of color, found alienating on a host of issues…When the issue of racial preferences came before the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 in a case involving Harvard University, the Biden administration arguably prioritized the interests of upper-middle-class Black and Hispanic families over working Americans of all races.  Harvard’s system of large racial preferences and legacy preferences worked well for economically advantaged students of all races. More than 70 percent of Black and Hispanic students came from the richest 20 percent of the Black and Hispanic families nationally, and the white and Asian students were even richer. Rather than backing a system of affirmative action for economically disadvantaged students of all races, however, Biden backed Harvard.”…After the 2024 election, liberals, who were fixated on race, puzzled over how on earth Trump could appeal to an increasing share of nonwhite voters, yielding what Williams calls “the least racially polarized election since 1972.” But to Williams, the result is not surprising. For nonwhite working-class voters, issues of racial reckoning didn’t touch their most pressing concerns, which centered around economic well-being. The “racial reckoning” of 2020, he writes, became “a professional-class affair, existing on another plane entirely from working-class reality.”…It is also possible that the extremism on the right is less difficult for working-class voters to stomach because it doesn’t come with the same strong sense of moral condescension that progressive activists (many of them economically well off) exude.”…Going forward, if Democrats want to win back America’s working class, they need to frame the necessary work of addressing race as a subset of the larger set of challenges facing working people across racial lines. They should emphasize race-neutral policies that serve all Americans who struggle, including working-class whites and underprivileged minorities alike. Such policies could include, for example, boosting funding for regional public and community colleges, as the Monthly’s Paul Glastris has argued…Pundits have pointed to many factors that contributed to Trump’s 2024 election—with inflation and immigration looming large—but cultural disconnect also played an important role.”

Re Trump’s latest big economic proposal – companies ending quarterly reports and just have semi-annual reports because it would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies” – Does anyone out there suspect that he is proposing such a reform because he is anticipating a lot of disastrous quarterly reports coming in, as a result of his tariffs? If so, know that you are not alone. The way it is now, the SEC requires quarterly earnings reports. But that could soon be changed. It’s not a new idea. Long before Trump proposed such a change, his 2016 election opponent Hillary Clinton, along with Warren Buffet and Jamie Dimon proposed such a change, as Matt Egan reports at CNN Business. Nor is it a such bad idea. Egan explains, “The concern is that Corporate America is often far too focused on pleasing the notoriously fickle stock market and not paying enough attention to longer-term challenges and opportunities. Moreover, some argue that the regulatory burdens of quarterly reporting have contributed significantly to the sharp decline in the number of public companies in the United States.” Further, “In the 2010s, regulators in both the European Union and the United Kingdom stopped requiring companies to report quarterly results, moving to six-month reporting periods instead.” All off a sudden, Trump likes ideas originating with liberal Democrats and business leaders. The merits of the idea notwithstanding, it may be another indication that Trump expects some really bad economic news sooner, than later.”

Good Americans of all political views should deplore the assassination of GOP activist Charlie Kirk in unequivocal terms. The New York Times editorial on the assassination put it well: “Such violence is antithetical to America. The First Amendment — the first for a reason — enshrines our rights to freedom of speech and expression. Our country is based on the principle that we must disagree peacefully. Our political disagreements may be intense and emotional, but they should never be violent. This balance requires restraint. Americans have to accept that their side will lose sometimes and that they may feel angry about their defeats. We cannot act on that anger with violence…Since last year alone, a gunman killed a member of the Minnesota State Legislature and her husband and shot another Minnesota politician and his wife; a man set fire to the home of Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; and a would-be assassin shot Donald Trump on the campaign trail. In 2022, an attacker broke into Representative Nancy Pelosi’s home and fractured her husband’s skull. In 2021, a violent mob attacked Congress, smashing windows and brutalizing police officers. In 2017, a gunman shot four people at a Republican practice for the congressional baseball game, badly wounding Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana.” Free speech remains the essential cornerstone of American democracy. Those who resort to violence to try and silence the views of others are committing the most unAmerican of atrocities.

A choice quote from Democratic strategist James Carville, from “Bringing back working-class Democrats” by Scott Reeder at The Illinois Times: “Carville agreed that the trans rights debate has become an albatross for Democrats, particularly those in rural areas…“It got ginned up,” he said. “When we were using phrases like ‘defund the police,’ or ‘reparations’ or that kind of stuff, people were willing to believe other things about Democrats like we wanted to have males running in girls’ track meets or we wanted to have gender-neutral bathrooms. … as we recede from this identity stupidity, it’s going to become less and less potent. … This was a giant mistake. There’s no other way to say it.”…In an interview with IT, the chief political strategist for President Bill Clinton said the Democratic Party’s brand has been damaged in rural areas…“I don’t think you can overestimate the damage that the language of the identity left has (done to) hurt rural Democrats. … Language really took a toll on the brand of the party, and you know, thank God people are pushing back on it. I’ll give you an example: ‘Defund the police.’ They are the stupidest three words in the history of the English language. Only 15% of the party (liked) this language, but its damage to the general party brand was much greater. This was an idiotic idea, and everybody knows it now. And it’s going to take probably this (election) cycle to wash most of the stench off of us.”

In “Trump’s ICE Just Wrecked Massive Business Investment Deal for the U.S.,” Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling writes at The New Republic: “South Korean businesses have suspended at least 22 U.S. projects after an ICE raid on a Hyundai Motor factory site in Georgia detained hundreds of South Korean workers…Some 475 employees, including 300 South Koreans, were taken into custody Thursday at the Savannah-area battery plant. Videos released by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials showed the detained workers in shackles and chains. The raid shocked Seoul, a key U.S. ally, where people expressed a sense of betrayal by Washington…The facility was part of a $4.3 billion joint venture that was slated for completion later this year. It was expected to create 8,500 jobs that would support the car company’s nearby electric vehicle plan, but construction on the factory was put on pause after the raid…Work on at least 22 other factory sites with ties to South Korea has also been halted, reported The Korean Economic Daily. Those facilities are involved in industries related to automobiles, shipbuilding, steel, and electrical equipment…South Korean companies with U.S. business interests have canceled travel plans and recalled their U.S.-based staff, fearing that their employees could be affected by more raids…“Korean workers are being treated like criminals for building factories that Washington itself lobbied for,” a company executive in Seoul told the business newspaper. “If this continues, investment in the U.S. could be reconsidered.” More here.

Josh Marshall writes in “What’s Unmentioned in the Intra-Dem Shutdown Debate” at Talking Points Memo: “As we’ve been discussing for a week there’s a big argument among Democrats about the looming shutdown fight. Senate Democrats seem set on making it a negotiation about Obamacare subsidies, the biggest part of the BBB cuts that kick in before 2026. Meanwhile, you have a growing chorus of people who aren’t Senate Democrats saying this is wrong. It’s not time for small-bore policy revisions. You’ve got to do something dramatic to rein in Trump’s increasingly dictatorial rule. I also see Lakshya Jain and Matt Yglesias saying that yes, maybe it’s time for a confrontation. But if you’re going to have a confrontation, you need to make that stand on the issue where your issue advantage is the greatest. And that’s on the health care subsidies. And at least on the first part of that I absolutely agree. Tariffs are actually pretty salient too. But let’s set that aside for a moment. Because there’s an unspoken part of this equation that makes all the difference…So let’s get that clear and on the table…Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats are making it very clear they don’t want a shutdown. They may be willing to risk one, but they really want to avoid it. Their thinking is that Trump’s getting unpopular on his own and a shutdown gives him an opportunity to spread the blame. Suddenly the Democrats own part of everything going haywire. That is a big part of the reason for focusing so tightly on the Obamacare subsidies. Because there’s already a slice of Republicans who very much want to do the same thing. That’s mostly the endangered members in the House and to a degree in the Senate. The leadership and White House won’t say so of course but they’d probably like to kick those cuts past the 2026 midterms as well because they are almost as invested in those endangered members not losing their races as the members themselves are. Donald Trump personally is probably even more invested than some of them are.” More here.