Mariana Carreno, features editor for Portada, has a richly-detailed “Special Report: Political Advertising; Courting the Latino Vote.”
Karen Tumulty discusses the GOP pitch to Latino voters at WaPo, but the appeal is limited, considering Romney’s bridge-burning policies on immigration.
Lots of good posts about ALEC’s 180 degree cave on social issues and desperate struggle to survive, including this New York Times editorial, “Embarrassed by Bad Laws,” which notes “John Timoney, formerly the Miami police chief, recently called the law a “recipe for disaster,” and he said that he and other police chiefs had correctly predicted it would lead to more violent road-rage incidents and drug killings. Indeed, “justifiable homicides” in Florida have tripled since 2005.”
David Brooks gives surprisingly fair coverage to “The White House Argument” re the budget and debt, no doubt causing causing wingnut grumbling and teeth-grinding.
The Nuge has made himself the target of a Secret Service investigation, but he will probably walk with a very light slap on the wrist and GOP pats on the back. The incident may bring unwanted attention, however, to his reported inclusion in a “Chickenhawks” website listing outspoken conservatives who did not deign to serve in the military when called (backstory here and here).
The Pew Research Center poll “With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows” notes a 10 percent drop in ‘swing voters’ (includes ‘leaners’) to 23 percent from June 2008. The poll, conducted April 4-15, indicates the President has lost some ground vs. Romney during the last month among most demographic groups, but still leads 49-45 overall.
Political poll junkies should not miss Mark Blumenthal’s illuminating post at HuffPo, which explains why “In late October, polls will be highly predictive of the outcome, but now, with more than 200 days remaining until the election, the predictive accuracy of polling is less than 50/50.” In other words, you’re better off flipping a coin.
Not surprising then, that CNN “Poll of Polls” calls Prez race a “dead heat.”
Joan Walsh weighs in at Salon.com on the progressive populists vs. Third Way dust-up with some insightful observations, including. “A recent Greenberg Quinlan poll…found that roughly three-quarters of those polled backed a feisty fairness message.” Walsh then crunches recent unemployment trends, indicating that “Declining unemployment alone can’t explain the relative change in the president’s political fortunes. His return to the populism that marked the end of the 2008 campaign almost certainly played a role. He has set up the 2012 election as a contest between the GOP’s message of “You’re on your own” vs. “We’re all in this together.” His economic feistiness, not just the GOP’s contraception craziness, is likely driving his revival among women, who remain the most vulnerable in a recession.”
Demos has a useful primer for Dems in this year of GOP voter suppression, “Got ID? Helping Americans Get Voter Identification.”
Larry J. Sabato has a funny and instructive read for those who think presidential politics is predictable.

I side more with Democrats who believe that now is probably not the best time to give full vent to our internecine ideological battles, since we are about to experience an unprecedented level of Republican attacks, fueled by record-level spending. One thing we all ought to agree on: this election is the best chance the Republicans have ever had to institute a reactionary takeover of the white house, both houses of congress and Supreme Court, and create a government more extreme than anything Reagan or Goldwater thought possible. The consequences would reverberate for decades.
A majority of the Supreme Court and House of Reps are already there. But think how much worse it could get if the Republicans win the political trifecta — veto-proof domination of the executive, legislative and judicial branches. It could happen — especially if we waste energy marinating too long in our internal divisions, while the GOP juggernaut, strengthened by successful voter suppression laws, builds traction.
I don’t mean to go all chicken little — Dems have an equally good chance of holding the presidency and perhaps one house of congress. Most of the polling data, historical experience and sober punditry points to a close election. Yet we should be clear that this election is about two profoundly different directions for America, one of which points to a far more repressive society. That shouldn’t happen because Democrats were distracted by internal ideological disputes.
That’s the perspective I bring to the ongoing debate between the Democratic centrists and progressive populist wings of the Democratic party. The centrists are energized by the recent Third Way study urging a more aspirational/less class-confrontational tone in Democratic messaging. The progressive populists believe, on the contrary, that a focus on fairness in economic policy in our messaging is the key to victory.
To get up to speed on the debate, read the Third Way report, “Opportunity Trumps Fairness with Swing Independents.” Ari Berman’s “Why Economic Populism Is a Winning Strategy for Obama” at The Nation and R.J. Eskow’s HuffPo post “How “Centrist” Democrats Are Helping Conservatives – and Failing America’s Moms” provide sharp critiques of the Third Way study.
Let’s give a fair and respectful hearing to both arguments. That dialogue can help hone messaging for both camps — to defeat Republicans.

Conservatives and even some moderates are still bellyaching about the lack of bipartisanship in Washington as if it were the fault of both parties. After 3+ years of unrelenting GOP obstruction in congress, matched by President Obama’s remarkable willingness to compromise, angering his base on numerous occasions, it certainly looks like the false equivalency bipartisanship laments are directed at the low-information segment of swing voters, a.k.a the politically clueless.
I suggest directing the persuadables among them to Jonathan Chait’s post, “Why Did Obama’s Bipartisanship Fail?” at New York Magazine, which patiently makes a compelling case that Washington gridlock is rooted in the knee-jerk right.
Chait walks his readers through a depressing litany of political manipulations by the National Rifle Association as ‘exhibit A’ of conservative’s rigid inability to negotiate anything resembling a reasonable compromise. As he puts it, “Here is an example of a single-issue lobby that has gotten 100 percent of what it wanted, yet has remained implacably hostile.”
Chait cleverly dissects the political paralysis of the GOP by using criteria proposed by a conservative writer, Peter Berkowitz in The Weekly Standard: As Chait explains:

…Headlined “Supposing Obama Were a Bipartisan,” the piece conveyed a note of skepticism that the newly elected president truly would live up to his image. Berkowitz listed seven things Obama could do to prove that he actually was the bipartisan figure he presented himself to be. Here is his list, in italics, interspersed with my update:
1. Obama should defend the integrity and independence of the executive branch that he will soon head by resisting calls from congressional Democrats to pursue criminal investigations of Bush administration officials.
Done.
2. Obama should reappoint Robert Gates secretary of defense.
Done.
3. Obama’s first appointment to the Supreme Court should be a judge’s judge, a Democrat no doubt, but one who commands the respect of conservative court watchers.
This one is sort of hard to define, but Obama’s first appointment, Sonia Sotomayor, was generally described as mainstream by Republicans.
4. Obama should institute a practice of regular consultation with members of Congress, including Republicans, perhaps inviting them to the White House once a month to compare notes and exchange views.
Obama did begin his presidency by consulting with Republicans, some of them repeatedly. Obama was stunned when the GOP leadership indicated in the opening weeks of his presidency it would totally oppose any economic stimulus plan, and announced that his defeat was their top priority. Republicans would probably reply that the ideology of his agenda left them with no choice. In any case, the causes of the breakdown of the meetings simply beg the question.
5. Obama, who has touted his support for charter schools, should endorse school choice.
Done.
6. Obama should clearly state his opposition to reviving the so-called Fairness Doctrine.
If you don’t know what this one means, it was the focal point of right-wing paranoia during the initial months of the Obama presidency. Conservatives convinced themselves that Obama was planning to revive the “Fairness Doctrine” in a way designed to close down large segments of the conservative media. It was a pure fantasy, and nothing like it ever happened or was ever considered.
7. Obama should call on public universities to abolish campus speech codes and vigorously protect students’ and faculty members’ speech rights.
Obama did not do this, as far as I know. But if he had done it I don’t think anybody would have noticed. This item, the last on Berkowitz’s list, seems like an idiosyncratic list-filler. (I also hated speech codes when I was in college, but has this issue popped up at all since 2008?)

Chait adds “So it seems that, depending on how you measure things, Obama fulfilled virtually all of Berkowitz’s criteria for bipartisanship. And yet, by August of 2009, Berkowitz himself was accusing Obama of having pulled a “bait and switch.”
As Chait concludes, “It seems overwhelmingly likely that the wall of conservative rage and distrust would have been built almost regardless of what Obama did, and that conservatives would have interpreted almost any agenda he put forward through a lens of paranoia.”
After three plus years of this predictable melodrama, it appears that anyone who reads Chait’s article and still insists that both parties are equally at fault for Washington gridlock are either rigid ideologues, terminal dimwits or conflict-averse neurotics.

Today begins the great tax battle, simplistically pitched as “The Buffett Rule” vs. Eric Cantor’s tax plan. Associated Press’s Alan Fram has a pretty good stage-setter, noting that “neutral economists” say neither plan does much for the economy or job-creation. But “The Buffett rule is clearly popular. An Associated Press-GfK poll in February showed that nearly 2 in 3 favor a 30 percent tax for those making $1 million annually, including most Democrats and independents and even 4 in 10 Republicans.”
Just to show you how moderate the “Buffett Rule” is compared to progressive proposals elsewhere, Barrie Mckenna reports on the Globe and Mail that “François Hollande is leading France’s presidential race with a promise to slap a 75-per-cent levy on everyone earning more than €1-million ($1.3-million).”
McKenna also reports that up in Canada, where 80 percent of voters want a tax hike on the rich, the Ontario New Liberal party’s Andrea Horwath is proposing a 2 percent tax hike on people earning $500,000 or more, and a conservative spokesman, Jim Doak of Megantic Asset Management, likens it to “ethnic cleansing,” whining “It’s nasty…She’s defined a group, not by culture or by language, but by how much money it makes, and she wants to get rid of them.”
President Obama has a big lead in the quest for electoral votes, 242 to 188 for the Republican nominee, according to the Associated Press. The AP says 9 states with 104 electoral votes (FL, CO, IA, NH, NM, NV, NC, OH, and VA) will likely decide the election. David Jackson’s USA Today post has one-graph run-downs for each of the nine states.
WaPo’s Chris Cillizza also sees nine swing states, but would substitute WI for NM in the AP’s list. Cillizza adds, “There’s no doubt that the 2012 playing field will be narrower than the one Obama dominated in 2008. But the president still retains far more flexibility than Romney in building a map that adds up to 270 electoral votes.”
L.A. Times political reporter Mark Z. Barabak says about a dozen states are still in play.
But the Obama campaign is betting on a state that made none of the lists, Arizona. As Adam Nagourney reports in the new York Times, “Obama strategists are simply following the same techniques they used in 2008 when putting states like North Carolina and Indiana into play. Then, too, there was much initial skepticism, though both states ended up going for Mr. Obama…This is in no small part because of the increase in Latino populations and a series of legislative efforts aimed at immigration — with the Republican governor and state Legislature of Arizona leading the way — that polls suggest have created a backlash among many Latino voters.”
Michael Tomasky talks sense at The Daily Beast about the Ann Romney-Hilary Rosen tea-pot tempest. Noting that most of America’s 5.6 million stay-at-home moms do so because of economic necessity, he adds “…I doubt pretty strongly that they identify much with Ann Romney or are rallying to her husband’s cause.”
Chris Cilliza and Aaaron Blake make an instructive point about “How YouTube and Twitter are hurting Mitt Romney.” They explain: “Ten years ago (or even maybe five years ago), the ability for anyone to quickly and easily upload video and share it was nonexistent. Finding quotes — or images — from candidates in obscure places or at anything other than sanctioned campaign events was virtually impossible…Given those limitations, it was far easier for candidates to put their primary rhetoric behind them when they became the nominee. To call them on their past contradictions involved a) finding some tape (audio or video) of their remarks, b) convincing a news operation to run it, and c) hope that average voters saw the report. All of those barriers have now fallen. ”
Thomas B. Edsall has a column at the NYT “Let the Nanotargeting Begin,” which takes an interesting look at which media and products are favored by each party’s voters. Among the fun observations: “The top-ten Republican-tilted shows are “The Office,” “Rules of Engagement,” “The Mentalist,” “New Yankee Workshop,” “The Big Bang Theory,” “Castle,” “Desperate Housewives,” “Dancing With The Stars,” “The Biggest Loser,” and “Grey’s Anatomy.” The top ten most Democratic-leaning shows are “Washington Week,” “Tavis Smiley,” “Late Show with David Letterman,” “The View,” “PBS NewsHour,” “NOW” on PBS, “House of Payne,” “ABC World News Now,” “60 Minutes” and “Insider Weekend.”
Self-described “liberal” Chris Mooney, author of author of “The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science — and Reality,” opines that “Liberals and conservatives don’t just vote differently. They think differently” at the Washington Post. A 3,500+ comment donnybrook ensues.

Krugman has a well-titled must-read, “The Gullible Center” for all your friends who identify themselves as “centrists” and worship at the church of false equivalence. Among Krugman’s insightful observations: “…Centrists should be lavishing praise on the leading politician who best fits that description — a fellow named Barack Obama…But the “centrists” who weigh in on policy debates are playing a different game. Their self-image, and to a large extent their professional selling point, depends on posing as high-minded types standing between the partisan extremes, bringing together reasonable people from both parties — even if these reasonable people don’t actually exist. And this leaves them unable either to admit how moderate Mr. Obama is or to acknowledge the more or less universal extremism of his opponents on the right.”
The Economist shreds the “slippery slope” arguments against the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, interestingly enough from a conservative point of view.
E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s “Obama levels straight shots at Supreme Court and Ryan budget” has a spot-on comment regarding Obama’s Spring offensive, noting, “Progressives would be wildly irresponsible if they sat by quietly while a conservative Supreme Court majority undid 80 years of jurisprudence. Roosevelt wasn’t a wimp, and Obama has decided that he won’t be one, either. Conservatives are unhappy because they prefer passive, intimidated liberals to the fighting kind.”
Chris Cillizza quotes Democratic pollster Dave Beattie: “A common thread that reflects this populism is the anger at out-of-control big government echoed by the tea party and the anger at out-of-control big business echoed by the Occupy movement,” said Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster. “The commonality of ‘anti-big’ ties both together.” Except true populism recognizes that “Big government” is more of a political hallucination with respect to the U.S., compared to other industrial democracies.
Wanna help expose the funding behind Super-PAC’s? ProPublica has a way you can do it.
Dems will be encouraged by a Demos report, “Corporations Under Pressure To Curb Political Spending,” noting that Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Kraft have dumped their memberships in ALEC thanks to a corporate accountability campaign led by Color of Change and revelations that ALEC is behind the “stand your ground laws.” A “Shareholder Spring” lies ahead, with actions at Bank of America, Target, Sallie Mae, 3M, and other companies.
I get Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Emanuel Cleaver’s point that amped-up rhetoric like “War on Women’ can turn off some potential swing voters, but I think it’s more for women to decide if it’s too much of an exaggeration. But there’s not much room for doubt that GOP policies contribute to violence toward women.
David M. Shribman’s “The Republican political battles you cannot see” in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette takes a peek at the ‘class struggle’ inside the GOP between the ‘managerial wing’ and the ‘movement conservatives.’ He also notes the internal contradiction of a party “chary of government involvement in the economy but open to government restrictions in social and cultural life,” a bit of a problem for libertarian-leaning Republicans.
Here we go with Romney’s bogus march to the political center. Thomas B. Edsall’s “Romney the Centrist” at the NYT has an analysis.

You won’t be shocked by Darius Dixon’s Politico report “Poll: GOPers say ‘too much’ media on Trayvon Martin.” Dixon notes a Pew Research survey which found that “Twice as many Republicans [56 percent] as Democrats [25 percent] say there’s been too much media coverage of the death of unarmed Florida teen Trayvon Martin…Among Democrats, 38 percent said they were following Martin’s death more closely than other stories, while 19 percent of Republicans said that they were following the story more closely than other headlines.”
Republicans have an understandable reason to be nervous about the Trayvon Martin case — especially if it leads to a big uptick in African American voter enthusiasm and registration in Florida. Meanwhile, Florida is wasting no time in terms of voter suppression. As Ashley Lopez reports in the Florida Independent, “The Center for American Progress released a report today on voter suppression efforts carried out by Republican-led state legislatures around the country, listing Florida as one of “five worst states for voting rights in 2011″…Florida lawmakers passed a new voting law last year that has drawn fire from federal officials, legislators, advocacy groups and voting rights experts from all over the country. The many critics of the law have said the law is a concerted effort to keep minorities, young people, the elderly and the poor from the polls on Election Day…Florida’s contentious law places prohibitive rules and restrictions on third-party voter registration groups, creates a shortened “shelf life” for signatures collected for ballot initiatives, places new restrictions on voters changing their registered addresses on election day, and reduces the number of early voting days — among many other provisions…A report from the NAACP found that, as of last year, Florida actually has the “most restrictive” felon disenfranchisement “laws in the country.”…Florida is one of only four states in the country that “denies the right to vote permanently to all individuals convicted of any felony offense.”
John Gardner of The Guardian has an update on “Wisconsin: America’s democratic struggle laid bare” charting the forward progress of United Wisconsin’s recall campaign and prospects for the June recall vote. Gardner adds:”Whatever June’s results, United Wisconsin has already won two significant victories. State and federal court decisions have overturned Walker’s ban on workplace dues collection and annual recertification elections…And the recall elections have already created a significant opening for the pivotal 17th, majority vote in the state senate…If Democrats win even one of four contested recall state senate elections, they will recapture a majority, frustrating further legislative initiatives from Governor Walker and Republican representatives.”
At least one veteran pundit thinks Justice Kennedy’s line of questioning in the recent hearings on Obamacare was encouraging from the Administration’s perspective. As Clarence Page put it in his syndicated column, “…as Kennedy’s tough questions persisted, Kennedy sounded increasingly like he was searching less for ammunition than for reassurance…It’s hard to believe Kennedy didn’t know the answers to his questions before he asked them. But if he found good enough reasons to support the law, he could possibly win the support of Chief Justice John Roberts, whose court would sound more credible with a 6-3 decision than a 5-4.”
Robert I. Field, a professor of law at Drexel University’s Earle Mack School of Law and a professor of health management and policy at its School of Public Health, has an op-ed at the Philadelphia Inquirer arguing that an adverse ruling on the Affordable Care Act would make the public option inevitable. Says Field: “If the health-care law is struck down, it’s only a matter of time before Congress finds it has to address the issue again. The system cannot go on indefinitely with more than a sixth of the population uninsured and the number growing every year…And when Congress does revisit the subject, it would be boxed in by a ruling against the current law. It wouldn’t be able to rely on the private market, because that would require a mechanism to force healthy people into the risk pool…The only clearly constitutional large-scale reform would be a direct extension of coverage by the federal government. Is that what the law’s opponents and the conservative justices really want?”
President Obama is under fire for his recent warnings about the ramifications of an adverse Supreme Court ruling on the ACA. In their Bloomberg Businessweek article “Obama Risks Voter Backlash by Warning High Court on Health Law,” Greg Stohr and Seth Ster note that the president’s references to “judicial activism” by “an unelected group of people” are heightening concerns about political partisanship in the Supreme Court: “The case is testing the court’s standing as a nonpolitical body. A decision striking down the law would almost certainly be along party-based lines, with the five Republican-appointed justices joining to invalidate the measure and the four Democratic appointees dissenting…This will mark the first time the court has ruled on a president’s signature legislative accomplishment in the middle of his re-election campaign. The decision will probably come in late June, less than five months before the election.”
Meanwhile the New York Times’ Jackie Calmes discusses the “Court’s Potential to Goad Voters Swings to Democrats.” Calmes quotes Democratic pollster Geoff Garin: “Historically, the court has been a rallying point for the Republican base, and it is now much easier to imagine that it will be a rallying point with the Democratic base just as much if not more, especially if the court overturns the Affordable Care Act…My guess is that more voters will think, ‘If they can do that, they can do just about anything — and that includes overturning Roe v. Wade’ — the landmark 1973 abortion rights decision…In a poll for The Washington Post and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 32 percent of Democrats said they had a less favorable opinion of the Supreme Court after the hearings, compared with 14 percent of Republicans.”
Ed Kilgore’s “Another Terry Schiavo Moment” a The Washington Monthly shines fresh light on Judge Jerry Smith’s tantrum and GOP leaders’ gleeful reaction as “an incident providing a very public glimpse into a veiled, radical perspective that supposedly mainstream, respectable figures embraced.”
Dem candidates who could use some ammo to fight the onslaught of Big Biz “regulatory reform” should read Rich Robinson’s “Damage Done By Regulatory “Reform” at Demos. Tidbits: “In Pennsylvania alone, for each year the government fails to update the restriction on levels of toxic soot in the air the state will face 3,890 preventable deaths and 84,539 preventable asthma attacks among children…In Ohio, delaying the Affordable Care Act’s ban on health insurance companies discriminating against patients with pre- existing conditions for one year will put 65,060 newly diagnosed cancer patients at risk of being denied health insurance…Allowing food processors to delay one year before using new standards from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for safe handling of produce will cause approximately 200,000 local cases of foodborne illness–more than the entire city of Worcester.”
Richard Kahlenberg and Moshe Z. Marvit have an interesting idea for rebuilding America’s labor movement up at Slate.com, “What MLK Would Do ; How to make labor organizing a civil right.”

I hate to admit it, but I’m wondering if conservative Ramesh Ponnuru has a point in his Bloomberg post accusing Dems who believe that the Supreme Court striking down the health care law or the individual mandate would be a good thing of “magical thinking.” Ponnuru’s argument:

Let’s say the court strikes down the entire law. The Democratic fantasy goes something like this: The public will still be upset about the number of Americans without insurance, rising premiums and the difficulty people with pre-existing conditions have getting insurance. Republicans will have no plan for achieving universal coverage. Sooner or later, single payer — which would probably be more popular than a mandate, and thus an easier sell to the public — will prevail
Reality-check time: When Obamacare became law, Democrats had more power in Washington than at any time since the Carter administration in the 1970s. They had the presidency and lopsided majorities in both houses of Congress. Because conservative Democrats have declined in numbers, it was probably the most liberal Congress since 1965-66. They were still barely able to pass the law. And that was with important medical industries either neutralized or in favor of the legislation, which they would not be in the case of single payer.
Democrats attained that degree of power because of an unusual set of circumstances: an unpopular Republican president reaching the end of his second term and a financial crisis hitting at exactly the right time. The odds are that it will be a long, long time until Democrats again hit the jackpot. And without an overwhelming Democratic majority, getting single payer through Congress would be almost impossible: Republicans won’t acquiesce to any steps toward such a system.

If most of the ACA survives, but the individual mandate gets invalidated:

……Or let’s say the court strikes down the mandate, but leaves in place the insurance regulations. The regulations without the mandate would lead healthy people to drop their coverage — the insurance rules mean such people would be able to get it again if they get sick — and with only ill people covered, premiums would soar.
…Democrats would be outraged if the court struck down the mandate, and would presumably blame any resulting problems in the health-care market on its decision. Republicans, meanwhile, would blame the Democrats for enacting a flawed law that couldn’t survive legal scrutiny.
The public is likely to side with the court, for two reasons. Americans express significantly more confidence in the court than in the presidency or Congress. And most Americans dislike the individual mandate and actually want it struck down.

Ponnuru has no happy outcomes for Dems in either case. Another conservative publication, Forbes, has a more encouraging post, “What’s Democrats’ Plan B If the Individual Mandate Goes Down?” by Avik Roy, which merits skeptical consideration.
Roy begins by noting that Dems could have bulletproofed the law in terms of the Commerce Clause by creating a tax to pay for health care, coupled with a credit for those who sign on — “equivalent to the mandate in policy terms, but would have been far sounder from a constitutional standpoint.” Alternatively, Dems could have embraced the “German provision” that allows individuals to opt out, but then wait five years before they can qualify for “guaranteed-issue insurance that doesn’t exclude pre-existing conditions.”
As Paul Starr puts it in The New Republic, the German provision “That deters opportunistic switches in and out of the public funds, and it helps to prevent the private insurers from cherry-picking healthy people and driving up insurance costs in the public sector.” It would likely also compel ‘free market’ purists to put up or shut up.
Roy goes on to discuss grim possible scenarios of chain reactions to the elimination of the individual mandate, including the crumbling of ‘community rating’ and ‘guaranteed issue,’ in a “death spiral” for the act. he then makes his pitch for “A Democratic “Plan B” that could gain Republican support” —“a universal tax credit for the purchase of insurance” with “a stronger cap on the employer tax exclusion.”
In other words, cave to the GOP agenda. No thanks would be my reaction to such a plan. As with all such tax credit/voucher schemes, it’s hard to see any credible cost-containment at work.
The more credible ‘Plan B’s, in Roy’s post would be to amend the act to include the ‘German provision,’ or alternatively converting the mandate into a tax credit rigidly linked to a tax to pay for the coverage. Republicans, of course will fight anything resembling a doable fix, which may be a good argument for building a movement for single payer.
It’s hard to develop any ‘Plan B’ without knowing exactly what the court will do. Whatever they do, however, Dems should have an alternative ready to go, so we don’t look like we are floundering around. Pollsters will likely move quickly to assess where most of the blame is directed, which will help Dems target their strategy.

The Elizabeth Warren-Scott Brown Senate race in MA is a stat tie in latest Boston Globe/UNH survey, according to CNN Political Ticker.
By now, most Americans with a shred of political awareness know that the voting rights of African Americans, Latinos and students have been undermined across the nation in a very serious assault. Christine Pelosi reports at HuffPo about another group of an estimated 3.2 million voters, which is experiencing obstruction of their voting rights: “Americans with disabilities face voting impediments too. A 2011 op-ed by Wade Henderson, president of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, and Mark Perriello, president of the American Association of People with Disabilities, states: “There are more than 30 million Americans with disabilities of voting age, yet the Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports that there are more than 20,000 inaccessible polling places. Some are located in basements or buildings without ramps, and others only offer machines that are outdated and unworkable for a person who is blind, deaf, or physically impaired…”
Cameron Joseph reports at the Hill that the push is on among some GOP strategists for a Latino on their presidential ticket, with Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), NM Gov. Susana Martinez and NV Gov. Brian Sandoval atop the buzz.
In his Daily Beast post “How a Tweet Can Beat a PAC: Social Media Gives Voters Muscle in Politics,” Mark Mckinnon reports “…73 percent of adult Internet users went online to get news or information about the 2010 elections. Some 22 percent used Twitter or social networking sites in the months leading up to the midterms to connect to campaigns or the election itself. And this year, over 1.6 million watched President Obama’s re-election campaign film, “The Road We’ve Traveled,” on YouTube in just five days…Masters of leveraging technology four years ago, Obama for America already has spent more than $11 million on Web ads and text messages this election season.”
Tomasky ponders some interesting ways the high court ruling on the ACA could damage Romney more than Obama. “A ruling against the law, depending on its scope, has three possible effects. It takes a massive campaign weapon out of his hands. It forces him to answer a key question he has so far not had to answer. And finally, and it has the potential to put him on the defensive since he will have to align himself with an obviously political and unaccountable Court majority.”
Jonathan Chait ruminates at New York magazine on the pros and cons of fighting for a single-payer based system if the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare.
Dems who want to be more savvy about the budget debate should read “The Budget for All: An Analysis of The Congressional Progressive Caucus Budget” by David Callahan and Jack Temple at Demos.
Now, here’s a Republican who gives excellent advice. At an ERA rally, Rep. Richard Hanna (R-NY) said: “…These are very precarious times for women, it seems. So many of your rights are under assault…I’ll tell you this: Contribute your money to people who speak out on your behalf, because the other side — my side — has a lot of it. And you need to send your own message.”
In her U.S. News post “Obama Trouncing GOP Candidates Among Female Voters,” Lauren Fox mines some nuggets about women’s political attitudes from the latest Pew Research Poll: “Younger women prefer Obama by greater margins than older women do. Women under 50 prefer the president to Romney by a 64 percent to 33 percent margin. But among women 65 and older, Romney actually leads Obama by a point…White women are evenly split between Romney and Obama.”
And Susan Page reports at USA Today that “President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation’s dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side…The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney’s support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.”

NYT Conservative pundit Douthat wonders “Could Defeat in Court Help Obama Win?,” but adds “The safest bet is still that it won’t come to this – that the high court (or at least Kennedy, our current swing vote-cum-philosopher king) will take the most politically cautious, precedent-conscious course, and uphold the health care bill in its current form…If so, it will be hailed as a big win for the administration. But the White House might actually reap more political dividends from defeat.”
In light of Douthat’s more sober assessment, this Monitor headline seems like an over-the-top downer: “Supreme Court justices appear poised to sweep aside entire health-care law.” Maybe Toobin, Richey and other doomsayers should just calm down a tad and remember that the High Court’s job is to ask tough, skeptical questions, and there is ample time left before the anticipated June ruling for serious reflection and maybe even some (gasp) soul-searching.
But it would be good if Justices Kennedy and Roberts read and ponder this lede from a new Reuters/Ipsos poll report conducted online March 23-28: “An overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system remains popular even though Americans are not enamored with the law that President Barack Obama signed in 2010, …The poll found that 44 percent of respondents favor the law, and that an additional 21 percent oppose it because it doesn’t go far enough – for a total of 65 percent.”
In his “Stealing Christianity” post at Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog, Ed Kilgore says what many are no doubt thinking. From the nut graph: “…A lot of media types simply don’t know much about religion, which they find faintly ridiculous and embarrassing. And since it’s all, in their view, a shuck, they are inclined to find its most forcefully conservative practitioners to be the most “authentic.”…This is precisely the same ignorance compounded by ill will that leads a lot of gentiles to treat visibly orthodox Jews as the only “real Jews.”
At The Fix, WaPo’s Aaron Blake takes a mildly hopeful (for Dems) look at a couple of “second tier” Democratic targets — the seat of embattled Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) and the open seat in AZ, where Kyl is retiring.
Here’s Three encouraging bellwether state snapshots for the President.
Eric Pianin of The Fiscal Times has a thoughtful, balanced analysis in his article, “House Call: Democrats Need A ‘Wave’ to Reclaim Seats.” Among the arguments for a wave cited by Pianin: “More than 70 percent of Americans disapprove of the performance by congressional Republicans, according to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
GOP veepstakes buzz increases about conservative NM Gov. Susana Martinez, to shore up Romney’s alarmingly low approvals/favorables among women and Hispanic voters. As the WaPo bio notes, Martinez last election was bankrolled in part by “Texas couple Robert and Doylene Perry, who helped fund the 2004 Swift Boat campaign against 2004 Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). Martinez has also received hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of campaign contributions from gas and oil producers.”
Dems gotta love Kenneth P. Vogel’s Politico post, “GOP faces digital divide,” which says: “President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies have opened up a big advantage over Republicans when it comes to high-tech voter targeting ” and “mobilizing volunteers, donors and voters.” Vogel adds “One of the Obama campaign’s big advancements this cycle has been to figure out how to link voters across multiple databases.” However, Republicans are investing heavily in closing the gap, and as one expert dryly notes in Vogel’s post, Dems’ high tech edge didn’t help much in 2010.
In an excellent update on the battle to win women voters, AP’s Laurie Kellman summarizes what’s at stake: “…Exit polls show that women are a majority of voters in presidential election years and about four in 10 female voters don’t have a spouse. They lean more heavily Democratic than their married counterparts. But the U.S. census says about 22 percent of them are unregistered, a rich pool of potential new voters for both parties competing for the presidency and the majorities in Congress…As much as 75 percent of single women vote for Democrats, so registering them to vote en masse is more beneficial for Democrats than Republicans.”

Robert Reich’s blog, “Health Care Jujitsu” at HuffPo Politics presents a plausible “plan B’ if the ACA’s individual mandate is invalidated by the Supremes. As Reich explains it:

…If the Court decides the individual mandate is an unconstitutional extension of federal authority, the entire law starts unraveling. But with a bit of political jujitsu, the president could turn any such defeat into a victory for a single-payer healthcare system — Medicare for all.
…You’ll remember the Administration couldn’t get the votes for a single-payer system such as Medicare for all. It hardly tried. Not a single Republican would even agree to a bill giving Americans the option of buying into it
….Americans don’t mind mandates in the form of payroll taxes for Social Security or Medicare. In fact, both programs are so popular even conservative Republicans were heard to shout “don’t take away my Medicare!” at rallies opposed to the new health care law.
…Moreover, compared to private insurance, Medicare is a great deal. Its administrative costs are only around 3 percent, while the administrative costs of private insurers eat up 30 to 40 percent of premiums. Medicare’s costs are even below the 5 percent to 10 percent administrative costs borne by large companies that self-insure, and under the 11 percent costs of private plans under Medicare Advantage, the current private-insurance option under Medicare.
…If the Supreme Court strikes down the individual mandate in the new health law, private insurers will swarm Capitol Hill demanding that the law be amended to remove the requirement that they cover people with pre-existing conditions.
When this happens, Obama and the Democrats should say they’re willing to remove that requirement – but only if Medicare is available to all, financed by payroll taxes. If they did this the public will be behind them — as will the Supreme Court.

Reich’s solution may seem simplistic — that’s sort of built into the nature of the single-payer alternative. But the simplicity of the proposal could work to the Democrats advantage. Simplicity is often an easier sell than a complex, multifaceted legislative package, particularly when the public is fed up.
Left Dems will be angry, energized and ready to seize the opportunity to fight for the public option. Many moderate Dems may be ready for the public option, when it finally becomes clear that even the Republican-controlled Supreme Court won’t allow a compromise supported by insurance companies and the responsible segment of the private sector.
It’s a risky strategy, electorally, considering the public was weary of the debate long ago. And, there are other possible compromises short of an all-out battle for the public option, including an “opt-out” provision some have suggested, allowing consumers to chose staying out of the law’s coverage for a minimum of 5 years. Another alternative would be a public option for catastrophic coverage only, guaranteeing, at least, that no one will lose their home or retirement assets to pay medical bills, allowing the insurance companies to compete for all other coverage short of catastrophic illnesses.
Regardless of the ‘Plan B’ Dems chose, however, it should be abundantly clear that rubber-stamping conservative Supreme Court nominees is a luxury we can no longer afford.