It’s early yet. But WaPo’s Chris Cilliizza asks “If Hillary Rodham Clinton passes in 2016, which Democrats run?” He calls out the second tier, Biden, Cuomo, O’Malley, Warren and some others, but overlooks van Hollen, McCaskill, Durbin and some other short-listers.
Cillizza also flags Stuart Rotherberg’s Roll Call post, “The Most Important Election of 2014,” which references Mitch McConnell’s struggle to survive the GOP senate primary in KY. Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes has to be wondering if the McCaskill strategy of providing support for )’Connell’s primary opponent could prove worthwhile.
At the Center for American Progress web pages, Eric Alterman’s “Think Again: 10 Years of False Equivalence and Still Going Strong” observes “Over and over, no matter what the issue–no matter how outlandish, illogical, or simply untrue the conservative argument has been–journalists create a sense of false equivalence between positions that rest on data and logic and those that don’t. To quote Cenk Uygur, “If CNN did sports reporting, every game would be a tie.”
Steven Elbow reports at The Capital Times that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker appears vulnerable in 2014, according tot he latest poll by Wisconsin Public Radio and St. Norbert College. “Asked whether Walker deserved reelection were the gubernatorial election held today, 49 percent of respondents said no, while 46 percent said yes. Six percent were unsure.”
At Sabato’s Crystal Ball Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley are calling it “A Democratic Tide in Virginia.” and the down-ballot fallout could be considerable.
Matt Pommer reports at GazetteXtra: “In a new book, Federal Judge Richard Posner said he made a mistake when he voted to uphold an Indiana law requiring a photo ID or other accepted means of identification in order to cast a ballot. Posner, who was appointed by President Reagan in 1981 and sits on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, is a widely respected jurist. His statements were stunning: Judges seldom admit they made a mistake.”
The bilious resignation of this charmer ought to make it a little harder for the more thoughtful conservatives in North Carolina to vote Republican, or admit they did.
At Salon.com, Jonathan Bernstein explains the “GOP’s Obamacare conspiracy: Sabotage from the inside.” And, boy, if Dems need a poster-boy for the GOP’s smug, mean-spirited vision of government, I nominate Rep. Joe Barton, depicted here in Evan Vucci’s caught-in-the-headlights AP photo.
In his post at The Nation, “Lou Reed’s Politics,” John Nichols, author of “The ‘S’ Word,” has a poignant epitaph for America’s great Punk rocker. Meanwhile, Dems can take heart from Reed’s lyric “You need a busload of faith to get by” in the video below, backed up by James Cotton and Buddy Guy.

Rebecca Kaplan reports at cbsnews,com that “a handful of Democrats are floating the idea of delaying the open enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act exchanges in order to allow users more time to sign up for insurance and avoid being hit by tax penalties.”
At Wonkblog, Sarah Kliff’s “Here’s how the White House just tweaked Obamacare” provides a good update on the Administration’s response.
If you’re bored with all of the Obamacare rollout bashing, read E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s WaPo column, “Don’t give up on the uninsured,” which observes: “Those seeking a model for how the law is supposed to operate should look to Kentucky. Gov. Steve Beshear , a Democrat in a red state, has embraced with evangelical fervor the cause of covering 640,000 uninsured Kentuckians. Check out the Web site — yes, a Web site — for regular updates on how things are going there…”We’re signing up people at the rate of a thousand a day,” Beshear said in a telephone interview. “It just shows the pent-up demand that’s out there.”
It’s not a good time for European heads of state not named Merkel. The left is rising in the U.K., but tanking in France.
According to a new CBS News poll conducted 10/18-21, “more Americans blame the Republicans in Congress than blame Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress for the partial government shutdown and the difficulties in reaching an agreement on the debt ceiling. Nearly half (46 percent) blame the Republicans in Congress, while just over a third (35 percent) blames Barack Obama and the Democrats.” Only 14 percent bought the false equivalence argument that both sides are equally to blame. Also, “While 31 percent of Americans approve of how the Democrats in Congress are doing their job, just 18 percent approve of how Republicans are doing theirs. Disapproval of Republicans in Congress has risen five percentage points since before the shutdown.”
The new Texas voter i.d. law, passed by state Republicans in the wake of the Supreme Court decision restricting the Voting Rights Act, targets women who use maiden names or hyphenated names, reports Steve Benen at msnbcnews.com. Benen quotes The Nation’s Ari Berman, who adds “According to a 2006 study by the Brennan Center for Justice, a third of all women have citizenship documents that do not match their current legal name.” It appears that the law is designed to hurt the candidacy of rising Democratic star Wendy Davis, who is running for Governor of Texas.
Arnie Pames reports at The Hill that President Obama is launching “a post-shutdown fund-raising blitz” to help Dems in 2014, including a series of eight speaking engagements.
Former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau argues at Politics Beast that “The Tea Party, Not Democrats or Republicans, Is the Problem.” Letting Republicans off the hook is a pretty long stretch, but Favreau does float an interesting idea: “In 2014, candidates of both parties should challenge their rivals to sign a No Shutdown Pledge and a No Default Pledge.”
This ‘toon from Mike Luckovich sums it up well.

Barbara Arnwine and Eleanor Smeal explain why “The war on voting is a war on women” at MSNBC.com: “According to the Brennan Center for Justice, 25% of eligible African-American voters and 16% of Hispanics do not have such an ID. In addition, 18% of people over the age of 65 do not have a current ID, and although most students have an ID card issued by their college or university, many do not have government issued-ID that would allow them to vote in these states…What is not commonly known, however, is that women are among those most affected by voter ID laws. In one survey, 66% of women voters had an ID that reflected their current name, according to the Brennan Center. The other 34% of women would have to present both a birth certificate and proof of marriage, divorce, or name change in order to vote, a task that is particularly onerous for elderly women and costly for poor women who may have to pay to access these records.”
Associated Press reports that “Va. removes 40K from voter rolls over Democrats’ objections.” In one affiidavit, “a preliminary review that found nearly 10 percent of the names given to him by the state for potential purging were, in fact, eligible voters,” according to AP.
From E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s WaPo column: “…I suggest that we allow ourselves a margin of hope in the wake of the decisive defeat of the extremists who closed down the government to accomplish absolutely nothing. It is a hope tempered by humility. Giant leaps ahead aren’t in the cards. But some important things changed for the better because of this battle….the most hopeful sign of all is that the shutdown reminded Americans that our country depends on an active, well-functioning government. This has emboldened Democrats to challenge the tea party’s sweeping anti-government bromides with an unapologetic case for the public sector.”
David Jarman at Daily Kos Elections makes the case for why we should “Blame gerrymandering, but blame ticket-splitting too.” As Jarman concludes, “If you see how increasingly sophisticated computer-aided gerrymandering, self-sorting, and declining ticket-splitting all interact and feed on each other, then you’re approaching a full-bodied theory on how polarization is increasing.”
At The New Republic, John B. Judis observes in “The Last Days of the GOP We could be witnessing the death throes of the Republican Party“: “There is a growing fear among Washington Republicans that the party, which has lost two national elections in a row, is headed for history’s dustbin. And I believe that they are right to worry…when the Republican Party becomes identified with the radical right, it will begin to lose ground even in districts that Republicans and polling experts now regard as safe. That happened earlier with the Christian Coalition, which enjoyed immense influence within the Republican Party until the Republican Party began to be identified with it… It took the Democrats over two decades to do undo the damage–to create a party coalition that united the leadership in Washington with the base and that was capable of winning national elections. The Republicans could be facing a similar split between their base and their Washington leadership, and it could cripple them not just in the 2014 and 2016 elections, but for decades to come.”
The American Prospect’s Paul Starr tries to get progressives back on the reform track in his post “Let’s Shut Down the Filibuster: Our 16-day long national nightmare is over. Now it’s time to think about reforms that will make the government more functional.” As Starr says, “…historically, the filibuster has hurt Democrats far more than it has helped them. Instead of perpetuating the minority’s ability to obstruct, the Senate’s Democrats should think mainly about laying the groundwork for a new era of reform. The cards are likely to come their way; the big question is how they are going to play their hand.”
From Paul Steinhauser’s CNN.com post “GOP, Boehner take shutdown hit in new CNN poll” : “According to the survey, 54% say it’s a bad thing that the GOP controls the House, up 11 points from last December, soon after the 2012 elections when the Republicans kept control of the chamber. Only 38% say it’s a good thing the GOP controls the House, a 13-point dive from the end of last year…the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced.”
According to Ashley Alman’s HuffPo report on a new PPP poll: “The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle…The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts…When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.”
Good headline, bad rationale. Let’s call them “earned benefit programs.”

From James Hohmann’s Politico post, “Dem poll: Shutdown could hurt GOP in Senate races” discussing a new PPP poll: “In Georgia, voters opposed the shutdown nearly two to one, 61 percent to 31 percent. Democrat Michelle Nunn ties a generic Republican at 42 percent. After being told “her most likely opponents for next year supported the government shutdown,” Nunn opens a six-point lead over a generic Republican.”
In their CNN Politics post, “Republican Shutdown Pain May Boost Dems,” Dan Merica and Robert Yoon quote Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report: “”There is now a plausible case for the midterms being a plus for the Democrats, where I would never said that six months ago.” Rothenberg said the GOP is being perceived as “a chaotic, disorganized, confused party” and it is likely that their fundraising numbers will likely begin to slow in the coming months.”Big dollar donors, who are more pragmatic business types, are now worried about where the party is going,” he said. “For Democrats, this helps them for 2014 in recruitment, in fundraising and in overall morale.”
Standard & Poor says the GOP shutdown cost Americans $25 billion in GDP.
For a broader perspective on the cost Republican obstruction, check out “Gridlock Has Cost U.S. Billions, and the Meter Is Still Running” by Annie Lowery Nathaniel Popper and Nelson D. Schwartz at The New York Times. As the authors note, “A new report from Macroeconomic Advisers, prepared for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, estimates the costs of the fiscal uncertainty of the last few years. Its model suggests that uncertainty since late 2009 has increased certain corporate borrowing costs by 0.38 percentage point; lowered economic growth over that period by 0.3 percent a year, costing at least $150 billion in lost output; and left this year’s unemployment rate higher by 0.6 percentage point. That translates to 900,000 jobs lost.”
Rep. Chris van Hollen outs the sneaky GOP rule change designed to keep the government shut down:

If you thought Texas Republicans might be feeling a little shame in the wake of the Cruz debacle, read Doktor Zoom’s take on the latest drivel from their Light Gov at Wonkette.
Despite the focus on a relatively small band of tea party house members, Politico’s Ginger Gibson points out that “62 percent of House Republicans oppose deal,” which would be a good stat to trot out in Democratic ads in all House elections.
To see how your Rep. voted, check out the House roll call vote right here. Here is the senate tally.
Harold Meyerson has an insightful column at WaPo, calling out the tea party Republicans for their Stalinist antics. Meyerson adds an apt description that could serve as a fitting eulogy for their failed offensive: “Today’s tea party-ized Republicans speak less for Wall Street or Main Street than they do for the seething resentments of white Southern backwaters and their geographically widespread but ideologically uniform ilk. Their theory of government, to the extent that they have one, derives from John C. Calhoun’s doctrine of nullification — that states in general and white minorities in particular should have the right to overturn federal law and impede majority rule. Like their predecessors in the Jim Crow South, today’s Republicans favor restricting minority voting rights if that is necessary to ensure victory at the polls…The tea party’s theory of government and the fear and loathing that many adherents harbor toward minorities find a truer expression in the Confederate flag than in the Stars and Stripes.”

Daily Kos’s David Nir reports on a dozen new MoveOn polls that show significant vulnerability of Republican incumbents in House races. His caveat: “…the problem for Democrats is that, for the most part, these seats are held by strong Republican campaigners who have done a good job of convincing voters of their moderation and who tend to raise money in bunches. That creates a vicious cycle whereby would-be Democratic candidates shy away from challenging these incumbents, thus making them look all the more invincible when the next election rolls around.”
At The Guardian, Bob Garfield’s “False equivalence: how ‘balance’ makes the media dangerously dumb: We’ve seen it in climate change reporting; we see it in shutdown coverage. Journalists should be unbiased, yes, but not brainless” observes: “As an institution, the American media seem to have decided that no superstition, stupidity, error in fact or Big Lie is too superstitious, stupid, wrong or evil to be disqualified from “balancing” an opposing … wadddyacallit? … fact. Because, otherwise, the truth might be cited as evidence of liberal bias…what is so difficult about calling bullshit on a lie?”
Media Matters staff has an excellent round-up of recent false equivalence “reporting” by talking heads on TV.
Kyle Trygstad’s Roll Call post “The Cheap Seats: Senate Majority Determined in Inexpensive States” reports that major ad battles are taking shape in states where ads are cheaper: “Cheap markets allow campaigns, national party committees and outside groups to afford significant ad buys earlier and stay on the air longer. But they also open up avenues for smaller independent groups whose less-robust war chests wouldn’t go nearly as far if they were forced to spend in major markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia or Washington, D.C…Democratic media consultant Philip de Vellis, whose firm Putnam Partners produced Heitkamp’s ads, says cheap markets and more ads allow campaigns to deliver a message over a series of spots — not cram everything into one “kitchen sink” attack ad.”
Dems have a “solid shot” at picking up the House seat being vacated by retiring FL Republican Bill Young, according to Hotline on Call’s Sarah Mimms.
Steve Benen’s “The electoral consequences of the shutdown” at MaddowBlog spotlights another GOP House seat ready for Democratic picking, NE-2, now held by Rep. Lee Terry. In his post, Benen also puts the shutdown drama in prudent political perspective: “Everything you’ve heard of late about 2014 is true. Polls show Republican support collapsing, but the midterm elections are still a year away, and it’s too early to make firm predictions…But this story out of Omaha offers an important reminder about the consequences of the Republican Party’s ongoing disaster — they haven’t ensured electoral setbacks next year, but they’ve certainly laid the groundwork for defeat.”
Looking towards 2014 elections, Democratic policy-makers would do well to check out “Working Longer: Older Americans’ Attitudes on Work and Retirement,” a recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll doesn’t include data on political party preferences of the respondents, but it does shed light on which policies this high-turnout constituency favors.
Democrats should read Joseph Stiglitz’s New York Times Opinionator column, “Inequality is a Choice” and then get focused on distilling some of his lucid observations into message points, including: “In America, nearly one in four children lives in poverty; in Spain and Greece, about one in six; in Australia, Britain and Canada, more than one in 10. None of this is inevitable. Some countries have made the choice to create more equitable economies: South Korea, where a half-century ago just one in 10 people attained a college degree, today has one of the world’s highest university completion rates.”
Richard Parker (not the tiger, the Harvard proff) has an amusing ain’t-gonna-happen-idea which lays bare the hypocrisy in tea party lunacy: “Suspend Obamacare and cut the budget–just as House Republicans have demanded–but here’s the compromise: do all the cutting in just the 80 or so congressional districts of the most ardent Tea Party members.”

If you thought recent opinion polls were bad news for Republicans, dig this excerpt about the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted October 7-9, from Ariel Edwards-Levy’s HuffPo post, “Poll: Republicans ‘Badly Damaged’ By Shutdown Battle“:

Americans blamed Republicans over President Barack Obama for the shutdown by a margin of 22 percentage points, with 53 percent saying the GOP deserved more blame, and 31 percent saying Obama did. Approval ratings for the Republican Party and the tea party were at 24 percent and 21 percent respectively — both record lows as measured by NBC/WSJ.

There’s no avoiding the conclusion that 22 percent is a pretty astounding blame gap. It does appear that the public is beginning to get it that the shutdown, the hardship it is already causing all across America and the threat of another retirement investments debacle is overwhelmingly due to Republican extremism and obstruction. There’s more:

Voters were 8 points more likely to say they’d prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress over a Republican-controlled Congress, a 5-point shift toward the Democrats since last month. Support for the new health care law, the touchstone of the government shutdown, rose a net 8 points from September, while the belief that government should do more to solve problems was up 8 points from June.

“That is an ideological boomerang,” said GOP Pollster Bill McInturff, “if there is a break, there is a break against the Republican position.” In addition, 70 percent of the respondents agreed that Republicans are “putting their own political agenda ahead of what is good for the country,” while about half said the same for the President. Further, reports Edwards-Levy:

WSJ/NBC pollsters said the survey showed some of the most dramatic shifts they had seen in decades in public attitudes toward the well-being of the country, the direction of the economy and wider political sentiment, according to the Journal.

The poll also revealed a 6 point increase in the percentage of respondents who rated their feelings toward Speaker John Boehner as “very negative” since the last time the poll asked the question in January. You have to wonder if that has anything to do with Boehner’s petulant interview on ABC’s ‘This Week’ last Sunday.

Harold Meyerson has a creative alternative for those 21 or so House Republicans who want to support a ‘clean CR,’ but fear being primaried by the tea party — declare themselves Independents. As Meyerson explains in his Washington Post column, “…To vote his beliefs and duck that challenge, all a center-right Republican has to do is declare himself an independent…This is hardly a course to be taken lightly. It entails the loss of congressional seniority and would cause rifts with friends and allies…There is no guarantee of reelection…But others have taken this course and survived — most recently, former senator Joseph Lieberman, who…reconfigured himself an independent and won reelection. Many of the House members tagged as supporters of a clean resolution, such as New York’s Peter King and Pennsylvania’s Charlie Dent, come from districts in the Northeast that aren’t as rabidly right as some in the Sunbelt. Others, such as Virginia’s Scott Rigell and Frank Wolf, come from districts with large numbers of federal employees, who almost surely are not entranced by the tea party’s anti-government jihad.”
At Facing South, Sue Sturgis reports that Art Pope, NC’s jr. Koch brother, is feeling some grass roots heat: “As Pope attempts to distance himself from controversial big-money politics, North Carolina activists continue to shine a spotlight on his outsized influence and what it has wrought.”
In a USA Today op-ed, Will Marshall presents an interesting idea: To seize the high ground, “…Democrats will need to abandon their ritual business-bashing, embrace the productive forces in U.S. society and honor companies that are investing in America’s future…The nation’s job drought is really an investment drought…Many companies are investing at home, and they deserve recognition. For the second year, the Progressive Policy Institute has ranked the top 25 companies making the biggest bets on America’s economic future. All told, these Investment Heroes spent nearly $150 billion last year on new plants, buildings and equipment.” Short of laws that protect jobs in the U.S., it’s an idea worth exploring, although the inclusion of Walmart among the “heros” is an eyebrow-raiser.
In his Politico post, “Poll: Terry McAuliffe increases his lead over Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia governor election,” Tal Kopan notes, “Virginia gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe has widened his lead over his Republican challenger Ken Cuccinelli in a new poll that puts him up 8 points…The Democrat led the Virginia attorney general 47 percent to 39 percent in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters out Thursday. In September, Quinnipiac found McAuliffe leading 44 percent to 41 percent.”
Turns out the latest Gallup poll I noted in Tuesday’s ‘notes’ post did have some data on approval ratings of the two parties, omitted though it was in Frank Newport’s report. According to Linda Feldmann’s Monitor summation, “The Republican Party is viewed favorably by only 28 percent of the American public, a 10-percentage-point drop in just the past month, according to the latest Gallup poll…It’s the lowest favorability number ever recorded for either party by Gallup, which began asking the question in 1992.” Democrats’ favorability also dropped in the last month, down four percentage points from 47 percent to 43 percent.”
John Dickerson’s “Are Moderate Republicans the Shutdown’s Biggest Hypocrites?” at Slate.com has a cautionary observation for Dems: “Right now, these members of the Clean Caucus have the best of all worlds. They can proclaim that they want to do the reasonable thing–which pleases their moderate voters–but never cast the vote that provokes the wrath of the party’s most active and punitive wing. This is how Boehner reads their maneuvers, and they can thank him for allowing them to have it both ways.”
But, as Steve Peoples explains at Salon.com, DCCC Chairman Rep. Steve Israel points out that the shutdown gives Dems a potent edge in the uopcomming 2014 midterm elections, with 68 competitive districts in play: “The longer the Republicans continue this reckless and irresponsibility … the weaker they become going into the 2014 cycle.”
If this doesn’t make Boehner sweat,nothing will: “Their frustration has grown so intense in recent days that several trade association officials warned in interviews on Wednesday that they were considering helping wage primary campaigns against Republican lawmakers who had worked to engineer the political standoff in Washington,” report Eric Lipton, Nicholas Confessore and Nelson D. Schwartz, in the New York Times.
At Daily Kos, the blogger ‘War on Error’ flags a series of revealing inter-active charts depicting the relationships between the Koch brothers’ and other wingnut foundations and PACs, lending great credence to Hillary Clinton’s warning about the “vast right-wing conspiracy.” Most disappointing revelation in the charts may be that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation supports ALEC. Open source software, anyone?

NBC News political reporter Michael O’Brien reports, “Thirty-eight percent of Americans said Republicans were to blame for the shutdown, versus 30 percent who blame the Obama administration and 19 percent who blame both, according to the Pew poll, which was conducted in the days since the shutdown came to pass. (For context, a Pew poll before the shutdown found that 39 percent would blame the GOP, 36 percent would blame Obama and 17 percent would blame both if the shutdown were to occur.)…The ABC News/Washington Post poll, meanwhile, found that 70 percent of Americans disapprove of the way congressional Republicans are handling negotiations over the federal budget, while just 24 percent approve. (Last week, 26 percent approved of the GOP’s handling, and 63 percent disapproved.)
Don’t feel bad if you didn’t notice that the Obama administration captured another al Qaeda bigwig The story has been all but smothered by shutdown coverage.
In his National Journal post, “19 Times Democrats Tried to Negotiate With Republicans: The GOP’s biggest talking point of the shutdown is only true if you ignore everything that happened before last week,” Alex Seitz-Wald makes an important point that apparently confounds the rest of the print and broadcast media.
At the Nieman Journalism Lab, Mark Coddington reports on “False Equivalence in Shutdown Reporting,” and flags several articles on the topic, including a post by Jay Rosen, who notes that “with the critique of ‘false equivalence’ now a part of the journalist’s daily life and the rise of point-of-view reporting to normal status online, the artifice is shakier than ever.” We hope.
For one of the better recent discussions of the problem, read Time Magazine’s “Not “Both Sides,” Now: Why False Equivalence Matters in the Shutdown Showdown” by James Poniewozik. “Both sides are to blame; the truth is somewhere in between”-that has always been the political media’s happy, safe place…Seeming fair becomes more important than being fair…At worst, a legitimate impulse (“Let’s make sure we’ve checked out the other side”) becomes skewing reality for the sake of appearances (“We have to put in an example of the other side doing this”).”
CBS News says there are 215 House votes ready for a clean CR to end the shutdown, 2 votes short of a majority. Many believe the spotlight would flush out a healthier majority.
At Wonkblog, Neil Irwin’s “Can business take the Republican Party back from the Tea Party?” notes “…So far the business-oriented, pragmatic wing of the Republican coalition has done more private grumbling about their Tea Party brethren than outright intra-party warfare. The question for 2014 is whether the current shutdown and debt ceiling crisis pushes them to actually recruit and fund candidates — and whether Republican primary voters in at least a few districts buy the pitch those candidates are selling.”
Beth Reinhard’s National Journal post, “Democrats Read Virginia As A War-on-Women Winner: Success with the strategy in 2013’s marquee race has Democrats hoping it will be equally effective in big 2014 contests” offers some promising observstions for Dems, including: “What we’re seeing in Virginia is incredibly validating,” said Cecile Richards, president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which is airing a $1 million television and radio campaign against Cuccinelli. “I believe this race has set the table for these issues and for women to be determinative in 2014.”…Closing the gender gap was one of the major goals identified by the Republican National Committee in a sweeping review of the 2012 election, but a new United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection poll suggests the GOP is still struggling to connect with women. Only 14 percent of women said the Republican Party better represented their views. More than twice as many women, 33 percent, said the party had drifted further away, while 46 percent saw no change.”
Gallup oozes out yet another ‘congress job approval’ poll that somehow avoids the “which party is to blame” question.

There is a way to render House Speaker John Boehner’s obstruction of a clean vote on a budget continuing resolution irrelevant, and Democratic leaders have apparently decided that it’s time to use it. As Molly Jackman explains at Brookings:

The discharge process begins with a petition filed no sooner than 30 days after the bill was referred to committee. That petition would require 218 signatures- not an implausible goal to meet in the case of the current CR. If the number of signatories passes this threshold, the petition is placed on the Discharge Calendar, where it waits for at least 7 days. At that point, it becomes privileged business on the second and fourth Mondays of the month (except during the last 6 days of the session). Any member who signed the petition can be recognized to offer the discharge motion. When the motion is called up, debate is limited to 20 minutes, divided evenly between the proponents and opponents. If the motion is rejected, the bill is not eligible for discharge again during that session and is returned to committee. If adopted, any member who signed the discharge petition can motion to call up the bill for immediate consideration. At that point, the bill becomes the business of the House, and an affirmative vote of the majority leads to its adoption….

Jackman, however, is skeptical that it will work, since the procedure would require 18 Republican moderates to openly defy their leaders. “It would take some real gutsy Republicans – who have a lot to personally gain from ending the shutdown — to make this move,” adds Jackman.
Even if the discharge petition fails, however, the process will out the ‘moderate’ Republicans who claim to support a clean CR, but won’t vote for it, as political trolls who feign support for functional government. Of the 21 or so Republican House members who say they want a clean CR, some of them are in purplish districts. If they out themselves as phonies, that could help Dems pick up seats in 2014. Here’s a list of 21 Republicans HuffPo’s Jennifer Bendery identifies as saying they are read for a clean CR:

Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Pa.): “At this point, I believe it’s time for the House to vote for a clean, short-term funding bill to bring the Senate to the table and negotiate a responsible compromise.” [Press Release, 10/1/13] Rep. Scott Rigell (R-Va.): “Time for a clean [continuing resolution].” [Official Twitter, 10/1/13] Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.): “Enough is enough. Put a clean [continuing resolution] on the floor and let’s get on with the business we were sent to do.” [Burlington County Times, 10/1/13] Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.): A Fitzpatrick aide tells the Philadelphia Inquirer the congressman would support a clean funding bill if it came up for a vote. [Philadelphia Inquirer, 10/1/13] Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.): Barletta said he would “absolutely” vote for a clean bill in order to avert a shut down of the government. [Bethlehem Morning Call, 10/1/13] Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.): King thinks House Republicans would prefer to avoid a shutdown and said he will only vote for a clean continuing resolution to fund the government, according to the National Review Online. [NRO, 9/30/13] Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.): The California Republican told The Huffington Post he would ultimately support a clean continuing resolution. [Tweet by The Huffington Post’s Sabrina Siddiqui, 9/30/13] Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.): “I’m prepared to vote for a clean [continuing resolution].” [The Huffington Post, 9/29/13] Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.): A Wolf aide told The Hill that he agrees with fellow Virginia Rep. Scott Rigell (R) that it’s time for a clean continuing resolution. [The Hill, 10/1/13] Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.): A Grimm aide told The Huffington Post that the congressman supports a clean continuing resolution. [10/1/13].
Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.): A local news anchor in Minnesota tweeted that Paulsen told him he would vote for a clean resolution if given the chance. [Blake McCoy Tweet, 10/1/13] Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.): A constituent of Wittman’s sent The Huffington Post an email she got from the congressman indicating he would vote for a clean funding bill but hasn’t had “an opportunity to do so at this point.” [10/1/13] Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.): LoBiondo told The Press of Atlantic City he’ll support “whatever gets a successful conclusion” to the shutdown and a clean funding bill “is one of those options.” [The Press of Atlantic City, 10/1/13] Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Va.): Forbes told The Virginian-Pilot that he supports the six-week clean funding bill that passed in the Senate. [The Virginian-Pilot, 10/2/13] Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.): The congressman issued a statement saying he would “vote in favor of a so-called clean budget bill.” [Office of Rep. Jim Gerlach, 10/2/13].
Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.): Lance’s chief of staff confirmed to The Huffington Post that he told a constituent on Wednesday that Lance has voted for clean government funding bills in the past “and would not oppose doing so again should one be brought to the floor.” [10/2/13] Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho): Simpson told a Roll Call reporter Tuesday night, “I’d vote for a clean CR because I don’t think this is a strategy that works.” [Daniel Newhauser Tweet, 10/1/13] Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.): Young told Tampa Bay Times reporter Alex Leary that he’s ready to vote for a clean funding bill. “The politics should be over,” he said. “It’s time to legislate.” [Alex Leary Tweet, 10/2/13] Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.): The congressman told Miami Herald reporter Marc Caputo that he would vote for a clean funding bill, provided it has the same funding levels contained in the Senate-passed bill. [The Miami Herald, 10/2/13] Rep. Richard Hanna (R-N.Y.): “I would take a clean (continuing resolution).” [Observer-Dispatch, 10/2/13] Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.): A Davis constituent tells The Huffington Post that a Davis aide told him Wednesday, “Congressman Davis is prepared to vote ‘yes’ on a clean CR.” Asked for comment, Davis spokesman Andrew Flach told HuffPost that Davis isn’t “going to speculate” on what bills may come up in the House and “will continue to vote for proposals brought to the floor that will fund the federal government.” [10/2/2013] Rep. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.): Asked on Twitter if he would support a clean funding bill if it came up for a vote, Griffin tweeted, “sure. Ive already said i would support.” [Official Twitter, 10/2/13].

In his (earlier) list of 17 Republican House members who profess support for a clean CR, TNR’s Nate Cohn observes, “most are from relatively competitive territory: Romney only won five of the 17 districts by more than 3 points.” However, adds Cohn:

…Perhaps as a result of their moderation, relatively few of these representatives appear vulnerable heading into 2014. Each of these candidates won by at least 7 points last November. The Cook Political Report only characterizes one seat as “lean Republican;” the rest are either “likely” or “safe” Republican.

It’s possible that skepticism about the discharge petition underestimates mounting public anger about the shutdown, which is topic “A” at social media forums, water coolers and dinner tables and across the country. A new poll by Public Policy Polling, for example, indicates that discontent with Republicans has risen to the point where 17 “battleground districts” held by Republicans are now leaning Democratic. According to the HuffPo report, “GOP In Grave Danger Of Losing House In 2014, PPP Polls Show“:

For Democrats to win a House majority, 17 seats would need to switch to their party’s favor. Results show that would be within reach, as Republican incumbents are behind in 17 of the districts analyzed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07. In four districts, the incumbent Republican fell behind after respondents were told their representative supported the government shutdown: CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02. Three districts saw GOP incumbents maintain their hold over their Democratic challengers, even after hearing their elected officials’ views on the shutdown, including CA-21, NV-03 and OH-06.

Clearly, if the discharge petition passes, it will be by a tight margin. As a safety precaution, Democratic leaders should make it known that any Democratic House member who fails to support the clean CR will experience full party discipline, since any defectors on this are DINOs when it really counts. Meanwhile, OFA, MoveOn and all progressive groups should put a full-court press on the 21 aforementioned House Republicans.

CNN.com’s Deirdre Walsh reports that GOP moderates huddle as conservatives set agenda , noting that a “senior Republican familiar with the talks” says the effort may be small now, but it is expanding, and will grow as more Republicans hear from constituents back home that are hurting from the shutdown…”It’s Day 2 of the shutdown — we went from six or seven (members) to over 20 today…”
The New Republic’s Nate Cohn answers the question “Who Are the 17 Republicans Willing to End the Shutdown?” Cohn names names and adds, “Fifteen of the 17 representatives are from the mid-Atlantic or California. Perhaps unsurprisingly, most are from relatively competitive territory: Romney only won five of the 17 districts by more than 3 points…Perhaps because of their districts, these representatives are also relatively moderate–13 are among the 40 most liberal Republicans, as measured by DW-nominate. Eleven of the 17 representatives voted for the Senate’s fiscal cliff compromise last January…And perhaps as a result of their moderation, relatively few of these representatives appear vulnerable heading into 2014. Each of these candidates won by at least 7 points last November. The Cook Political Report only characterizes one seat as “lean Republican;” the rest are either “likely” or “safe” Republican.”
At the Week Keith Wagstaff reports on an emerging (we hope) trend in his post, “Blaming Republicans for the government shutdown: The end of false equivalence?: Even the Wall Street Journal editorial board is urging the GOP to throw in the towel”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball guest columnists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck offer this insight about “persuadable voters”, gleaned from their book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election : “…We can look at what voters told us in December 2011 and then after the election in November 2012. The vast majority of these voters — about 87% — preferred Obama, Romney or some other candidate in December and reported voting for the same candidate in November. That suggests a lot of stability — which isn’t surprising given that most voters are partisans and partisans are increasingly loyal in presidential elections…But that also leaves 13% who shifted — some from Obama to Romney or vice versa, and most of the rest from being undecided or preferring another candidate to preferring Obama or Romney. That’s a lot more movement than the 5% shift that averaging the horserace polls would suggest…How is it possible that 13% shifted their votes but the horserace polls moved so little? The answer is that these shifts — between the candidates, into and out of being undecided — usually didn’t advantage one or the other of the candidates.”
Also at the Crystal Ball, UNC Charlotte Professor Emeritas Theodore S. Arrington performs “simple least square” regression calculations to determine ‘partisan bias’ in the upcoming House elections. He concludes, “Looking forward from the 2012 election result, this research finds that Democrats would have to get around 53% of the two-party national House vote to have a shot at winning a majority in the lower chamber.” Arrington adds, “This is not impossible, as they performed above this level in 2006 and 2008, but it makes the task of winning a majority of the House seats an uphill climb.”
GOP SHUT DOWN COSTS AMERICANS OVER $30 MILLION PER DAY. Howzat for a headline? At Daily Kos, Laura Clawson reports on the cost of federal park shutdowns inb surrounding communities: “The National Park Service is losing $450,000 a day in entrance fees and other revenue thanks to the Republican shutdown, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg in park-related economic shutdown losses. The communities surrounding national parks will suffer, too, to the tune of $30 million a day…With vacationers banned from the parks, they won’t pass through towns by park entrances. That means business lost for hotels and restaurants, grocery stores, supply stores and more.” So much fore the GOP’s “friend of small business” meme. And none of the estimates affecting other government agencies thus far factor in the opportunity cost of not doing the peoples’ business.
Worse, yes worse, Josh Levs reports at CNN: “The government shutdown is “extremely damaging” to U.S. intelligence operations, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Wednesday…The shutdown “seriously damages our ability to protect the safety and security of this nation,” he told a Senate panel…Approximately 70% of employees were furloughed, he said.” So much for the Republicans’ cred for protecting our national security.
At Alternet, syndicated talk show host Thom Hartmann does a good job of explaining how the Boehner shutdown robbed the ACA exchange rollout of millions of dollars of free television publicity: “Every news organization in the country had prepared detailed packages and reports on what Obamacare is, how to sign up for it…and all the details…Obamacare experts were being lined up as guests for September 30 and October 1 on radio and television networks and stations across the country. Local stations planned their local versions of this, talking about their state programs…Those two days we’re going to be a big deal, programming wise. I know. I’m in the industry. We were planning it, too…All those programs on radio and television would have given the equivalent of millions of dollars worth of advertising to Obamacare, and caused tens of millions of young people to learn about the program, get excited about the program, and begin signing up right away.” Nearly all of those programs were blacked out by the shutdown.
Liberal Democrat though I am, I like this image crafted by Grover “The Pledge” Norquist, as reported by Talking Points Memo’s Igor Bobic: “Cruz said he would deliver the votes and he didn’t deliver any Democratic votes. He pushed House Republicans into traffic and wandered away.” More humane, at least, than drowning the baby in the bathtub.