washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

J.P. Green

Political Strategy Notes

At The Hill, Russell Berman and Erik Wasson report on signs of (gasp) bipartisanship emerging within the GOP, or at least from House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers. Wasson and Berman note that “Rogers called for a bipartisan deal that would replace the unpopular sequester with something bridging the gap between the House budget and Senate spending measures he said were too costly to pass the lower chamber.”
Greg Sargent argues the latest round of GOP attacks against Obamacare could be the dying gasps of a doomed campaign. “By holding countless repeal votes, and by continuing to insist Republicans will continue targeting the law for elimination, Boehner and other GOP leaders are only keeping alive the hope that Obamacare will be destroyed before it becomes part of the American landscape…They’ve been feeding the repeal monster for literally years now. Even if a government shutdown does happen, of course, Obamacare won’t be defunded. But plenty of other damage will be done in the process. If GOP leaders can’t control this monster, it’s on them.”
Dem digerati should read Beth Reinhard’s National Journal post, “Why Democrats Are Laughing at the Republican Digital Strategy — And Why They Shouldn’t Be.” Reinhard reports that the new GOP system “can merge different campaign spreadsheets on one data platform. That means canvassing lists, phone banks, fundraising reports, event sign-in sheets and social networks are all integrated with outside data for highly detailed profiles of voters and supporters.”
Reinhard has another good article at the National Journal, “Democrats Using Voting Rights Issues to Protect Senate Majority,” which observes “Jotaka Eaddy, senior director of voting rights at the NAACP, said the backlash against voter ID laws nationwide was one reason turnout among black voters topped white turnout for the first time in 2012, 66.2 to 64.1 percent…”It’s important that we move our outrage into action, and I expect to see a similar impact on the 2013 and 2014 elections,” Eaddy said. “A lot of people will go to the polls with this issue in the forefront of their minds, and if Congress fails to act there will be serious repercussions.”
This new PPP poll should have Mitch McConnell worried.
At The Guardian, Harry J. Enten reports that “Felon voting rights have a bigger impact on elections than voter ID laws.” Enten explains, “A study of felon voting patterns (pdf) from 1972 to 2000 found on average 30% of felons and ex-felons would vote if given the chance, and about three out of four would vote for the Democratic nominee for president. This would have doubled Al Gore’s margin in the national vote…In terms of pure numbers, 137,478 of African-Americans in Alabama, 107,758 in Mississippi, and 145,943 in Tennessee are kept from voting.”
On the same topic, see Josh Israel’s “Felon Voting Restrictions Disenfranchise More Minority Voters Than Voter ID Laws” at Think Progress.
Shanta N. Covington explores an important distinction in the debate about voter suppression, “The difference between ‘impact’ and ‘intent’ on your right to vote” at MSNBC.com.
Here’s a hopeful note, from Deborah Foster’s PoliticusUSA post, “Can Government Pick Up Where Unions Left Off?“:”Across the country, municipalities, counties, and increasingly some states have passed worker-friendly laws like living wages, paid sick leave, expanded family leave acts, bereavement leave bills, and pregnancy disability provisions. At a time when unions are increasingly neutered, workers should turn their attention to local government to put in place rights already enjoyed in most other Western democratic nations. One way to strengthen this process is to identify the grassroots victories in these local communities as steps in an overall movement with its own identity, not unlike the grassroots movement to gain same sex marriage rights by chipping away at the discriminatory laws that blanket the country. The distance to the goal always seem formidable at the start, but as progress is made here and there across the country, soon we could have a groundswell that gives us national remedies.”
You go, guys.


On Calling Out Republicans for Political Terrorism, Nihilism and Sabotage

Chris Matthews raised some eyebrows on MSNBC last night, when he accused Sen. Ted Cruz of “political terrorism,” provoking an argument with McCain’s senior campaign strategist Steve Schmidt, who said, in essence, it’s a term that should be reserved for those who actually try to kill their adversaries. Schmidt preferred “demagogue” and “irresponsible.”
In my view they were both right. Matthews was correct in saying that much of the behavior of key GOP leaders is intentionally destructive and designed to paralyze government into dysfunction and chaos. That meets some of the requirements of terrorism. But Schmidt is also right in saying that applying the inflammatory term to political dialogue implicitly trivializes the damage that murderous political terrorists have done worldwide.
Credit Matthews with a perceptive observation. Current Republican strategy does have significant sociopathic elements, which should be condemned by all responsible citizens, not just us partisan Democrats. But to most people, I would guess that using the term “political terrorism” to describe Republican legislative obstructionism is rhetorical overkill which demonizes adversaries. You never help your case by overstating descriptions of your opponent’s behavior.
When rising Democratic star Rep. Alan Grayson called his Republican opponent, Daniel Webster, ‘Taliban Dan,’ in the 2010 congressional race, Grayson apparently hurt his own cred with a number of voters. Sure he had a point, in that his opponent urged making divorce illegal and forcing abused women to remain in their marriages, not so unlike Taliban policy towards women. But using the term may have contributed to Grayson’s defeat in that election. Thankfully, Grayson was elected in 2012 to a different district, proving that you can recover from verbal blunders, if you learn the lesson.
In his Washington Monthly post, “Nihilism or Principle,” Ed Kilgore notes that top journalists including James Fallows and Jonathan Chait may have strayed into rhetorical overkill territory in describing the behavior of GOP leaders as “nihilism.” The term sort of fits much recent Republican behavior, particularly the knee-jerk opposition to anything Obama, regardless of the consequences. But nihilism, as Kilgore observes, entails an absence of ideology, while the GOP is heavily laden with extremist ideologues, with Cruz as exhibit A.
It’s not all that hard to visualize McConnell and Boehner being portrayed in an SNL skit as the nihilists in “The Big Lebowski.” Boehner does seem to relish with nihilistic gusto his recent anointing as the least productive Speaker, maybe ever. If Republicans have not quite earned the “nihilist” designation, some of them seem to be dabbling in the nihilist spectrum.
Nor is it too much of a stretch to argue that Republicans are flirting with both “political terrorism” and “nihilism.” But I don’t think there is much benefit in pushing the terms as memes, and Dems can hurt their cause by doing so. It’s quite enough that the GOP richly deserves the “obstructionist” designation, which even its defenders sometimes affirm. The term resonates well because it is wholly, not partially accurate.
With respect to Dems calling out Republicans for “sabotage,” however, we are on very safe ground. You would be hard-pressed to find a more accurate one-word term to describe the current strategy of Republican congressional leaders. The GOP’s proclivity for sabotage is unprecedented in scale, beyond blocking the progress of legislation. They are now into preventing the implementation of duly-enacted laws at every opportunity, consciously thumbing their noses at the Democratic process and the American people. That may not literally be anarchy, political terrorism or nihilism. But the trend is disturbingly in that direction.
For now, however, the wisest course would be to pass on attacking Republicans with terms that don’t quite fully apply and which sound like unjustified ad hominem attacks. Better, Democrats continue to call out Republicans for gridlock, obstruction, paralysis and sabotage (GOPS), terms which resonate with more accuracy every day.


Political Strategy Notes

Republicans Sabotaging, Not Governing. This Is Who They Are Now” by Dave Johnson at Campaign for America’s Future blog says it clear and simple: “This is who they are now. This is who the Republican Party is now. It is RedState, Limbaugh, Coulter, Drudge Report, etc. It is not Bob Dole or John McCain or even Ronald Reagan. It is not Ronald Reagan playing poker with Tip O’Neill…Ronald Reagan would be primaried out as a “RINO” in today’s Republican Party…If you don’t get it yet, let this sink in: Mitch McConnell is being primaried for being “a big government guy” and too “progressive” and working with Democrats. Mitch McConnell!”
“I don’t know enough. I’m sorry. I haven’t read that portion of the bill,” says N.C. Gov. McCrory of the voter suppression package he is about to sign. The bill is “being called the most suppressive voting law in the nation.”
This idea probably won’t get much traction. Meanwhile Dems couldn’t ask for a better poster boy for crude nativism and outright bigotry than Republican Rep. Steve King, who has driven a deep spike into the heart of his party’s already limp efforts to win Latino votes in 2014.
Todd Leopold’s post, “The Republicans of the future?” at CNN Politics reads more like an exercise in wishful thinking than a harbinger of things to come. Don’t be too surprised if many of the young Republicans quoted in this post end up bailing out of the GOP and joining the Libertarian Party out of frustration — and embarrassment about bigoted bomb-throwers like Rep. Steve King.
Kyle Kondik’s Crystal Ball post on “Senate 2014 and Beyond” sees GOP Senate gains next year, but stops short of predicting a Republican takeover.
Michael Langenmayr, campaign director of Daily Kos, reports in an e-blast that the Koch brothers are trying to recall two of the best Democratic state legislators in the country, Colorado Democrats John Morse and Angela Giron, whose leadership was instrumental in enacting “a slew of new good government and progressive laws this year–background checks, civil unions, online voter registration, and more.” Langenmayr urges Democrats to contribute to protecting Morse and Giron, to help offset the big money right-wingers are dumping into defeating them, and you can do that right here.
Paul Waldman’s American Prospect post, “GOP Circular Firing Squad Locked and Loaded” is chicken soup for the Democratic Soul.
At Politico James Hohman reports “A statewide survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shared first with POLITICO, focused on which messages might get women who voted in the 2008 or 2012 presidential elections, but not for governor in 2009, to show up…They found that statements about Cuccinelli’s position on abortion had a bigger effect among this group than any other issue in generating both the level of support and intensity for Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. “Protecting a woman’s right to choose” trumped health care, guns, transportation, spending and college affordability. This held true in each of Virginia’s three-biggest media markets.”
Dan Balz’s WaPo post “How the Obama campaign won the race for voter data” illuminates the data driven method used to get to 270 ev’s.
Copycats. Not sure this is going to work out all that well for them, since their grass roots activists are increasingly detached from reality.


Political Strategy Notes

This is really great news for Democrats. the highly-regarded and well-connected Michelle Nunn is running for the Senate seat now held by Republican Saxby Chambliss, giving Dems their best hope for a 2014 pick-up — likely a marquee Senate race.
A new USA TODAY/Bipartisan Policy Center poll has some interesting findings beyond the headline, including that 22% of men, but just 8% of women have considered running for office, as have 17% of whites, but just 8% of African Americans. But the survey indicates that the main reasons most don’t end up running for office include money, time and the nastiness of it all. The poll also cites “a close split, 42%-38%, on whether they see the government as an advocate or an adversary for them and their families. (The partisan divide: Republicans and independents view the federal government as an adversary while Democrats see it as an advocate.)”
Little Cheney is apparently flunking the carpetbagger test big time. I guess it was too much to hope she would get traction and divide the state GOP.
Dems face a very tough challenge in terms of holding their U.S. Senate majority in 2014, but there are some grounds for hope, as Jessica Taylor writes at MSNBC: “Republicans inherited a very friendly map, but they have failed to put any blue or purple states into play. Even in the red states, Republicans are mired in divisive primaries that pit Tea Party conservatives against establishment Republicans favored by the Washington elite. The party has failed to unite behind a candidate in any of the most competitive states they cite,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director Matt Canter. “Democrats have had tremendous recruiting success in Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats now are the undisputed favorites. Grimes’ candidacy fundamentally changes the map, forcing Republicans to spend millions playing defense, and Democrats are confident that she can defeat McConnell. Democrats also believe that a Todd Akin conservative will emerge in Georgia and provide a pick up opportunity for the right moderate Democrat with an independent Georgia brand.”
Chris Matthews asks a good question: “Forty-one states had voter suppression bills introduced by Republicans last year. Do you think people are going to forget which party wanted them to be shut out from their democratic rights?”
This Pew Research Center study presents a number of important findings for Democrats, including: “Our research has also found a correlation between the amount of time Hispanic immigrants (regardless of legal status) spend in the United States and the share that identifies with a political party. While nearly two-thirds (63%) of Hispanic immigrants who have been in the U.S. at least 15 years identify with one of the two major parties, that share falls to 38% among those who have been in the U.S. for fewer than 15 years.”
Give it up for NC progressives, who are writing a new book on how to raise consciousness and fight Republican suppression. Partricia Murphy reports at the Daily Beast, and the photo accompanying her article reflects the growing spirit of resistance taking root in this key swing state.
Here’s one theory about why Nate Silver is leaving the New York Times for ESPN: “His entire probability-based way of looking at politics ran against the kind of political journalism that The Times specializes in: polling, the horse race, campaign coverage, analysis based on campaign-trail observation, and opinion writing, or “punditry,” as he put it, famously describing it as “fundamentally useless.” Of course, The Times is equally known for its in-depth and investigative reporting on politics.”
Tamara Keith’s “How Floor Charts Became Stars Of Congress” provides an interesting take on the increasing use of a new tool for political education: “Watch C-SPAN long enough, and you’ll see members of Congress using visual aids: big, brightly colored poster boards, known on Capitol Hill as floor charts…When you are in the minority, you have to find ways to get your message across because there’s no other way. You don’t have a bill that they’re going to hear. There’s no committee that will receive your suggestions,” [Florida Democrat Frederica] Wilson says.”
Well-intentioned that it is “middle-out” doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of excitement as a Democratic catch-phrase heading towards 2014.


Political Strategy Notes

At Bloomberg, Michael C. Bender reports on what may be a crack the the GOP’s wall of voter suppression. GOP Rep. James Sensenbrenner criticizes the high court decision gutting the Voting Rights Act, arguing that the majority ignored the Act’s provision exempting state and local jurisdictions from oversight if they comply with anti-discrimination rules. The fact that jurisdictions covered by the Act failed to qualify for that provision “is evidence that the VRA’s extraordinary measures are still necessary,” said Sensenbrenner, 70, who was House Judiciary Committee chairman in 2006, when Congress reauthorized the law.
Michael Tomasky has the skinny on the tanking of the phony I.R.S. “scandal,” which got bumped off the headlines by the Trayvon Martin verdict. But the really big implosion of the GOP’s manufactured scandal starts today, when Russell George, the Treasury Department inspector general who produced the original report at Darrell Issa’s request returns for a proper grilling by Rep. Elijah Cummings, who has new evidence. Expect evasive sputtering.
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza notes that “the 112th Congress passed just 561 bills, the lowest number since they began keeping these stats way back in 1947,” with the usual false equivalency explanation for gridlock. How about an comparison showing which party’s members vote with the other party more in the house and senate votes? Don’t hold your breath waiting for those numbers.
It’s not just the Liz Cheney thing, notes John Whitesides in his Reuters.com post “Analysis: Republicans could see more bruising Senate primaries.”
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley have a fun post up at The Crystal Ball, “Rinse and Repeat: 10 classic political ads that 2014 candidates should (or shouldn’t) copy.”
Also at The Crystal Ball, Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, responds to a post by TDS co-founding editor Ruy Teixeira and Crystal Ball senior columnist Alan Abramowitz criticizing Trende’s argument that Republicans can offset demographic trends favoring Democrats by appealing to white voters who are increasingly disenchanted with Dems.
The presidents of three unions, the Teamsters, UFCW and UNITE-HERE have written to Senate Majority Leaders Reid and House Minority Leader Pelosi calling for specific fixes to the Affordable Care Act. They want to eliminate the provision that “creates an incentive for employers to keep employees’ work hours below 30 hours a week” and the provision that makes employees enrolled in non-profit health care plans ineligible for the subsidies grated those in for-profit company health plans. Of course the Republicans are spinning the letter to suggest unions want to repeal Obamacare. But the letter calls for “common-sense corrections that can be made within the existing statute.”
Don’t miss Wonkblog’s Ezra klein and Sarah Kliff excellent report on “Obama’s last campaign: Inside the White House plan to sell Obamacare.” Among the observations: “…the effort will have to go far beyond engineering turnout among key demographics. The administration needs to build more insurance marketplaces than they ever expected, and create an unprecedented IT infrastructure that lets the federal government’s computers seamlessly talk to the (often ancient) systems used in state Medicaid offices. They need to fend off repeal efforts from congressional Republicans — like Wednesday’s vote to delay the individual mandate — and somehow work with red-state bureaucracies that want to see Obamacare fail…”
Meanwhile, David Callahan writes at Demos ‘Policy Shop’ that “Freedom From 9-to-5: Obamacare a Boon to Entrepreneurs.”
Just what the U.S. Senate needs another arrogant theocrat.


Political Strategy Notes

Lest we forget, the “stand your ground” law which facilitated the dubious acquittal verdict in the Trayvon Martin case was an NRA and mostly Republican-sponsored law. As Howard Goodman reports for the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, “As soon as the bill was signed into law in Florida, the NRA’s executive vice president, Wayne LaPierre, said the pro-gun organization would use the victory to promote the law everywhere…Within weeks, a proposed statute with almost the exact wording of the Florida law was adopted by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). That’s a conservative organization that pushes for laws favorable to its patrons, mainly scores of U.S. corporations…ALEC’s method is to hand cookie-cutter “model” bills to sympathetic state lawmakers — mostly conservative Republicans — who then sponsor them in their statehouses.”
Demography is Destiny to a great extent. But Ron Brownstein has a sobering warning for Dems in his National Journal post, “Danger Ahead for Democrats: The Passion Gap: A motivated Republican base could help the party win seats next year, despite long-term demographic trends.”
From Catalina Carnera’s USA Today article, “Poll: Voters blame GOP for gridlock in Washington” : “A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that 64% of voters say Republicans and Democrats are equally to blame for the gridlock…But when asked if the standstill occurs because of the GOP blocking President Obama or whether Obama lacks the skills to bring Congress together, 51% point fingers at Republicans. By comparison, 35% of voters say Obama “lacks the personal skills to convince leaders of Congress to work together.”
Former MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer passes on a run for the U.S. Senate, which is a blow for Dem hopes to hold their majority.
All of the Democrats problems in candidate recruitment notwithstanding, E. J. Dionne’s Sunday column highlights one area where Dems are in excellent shape — plenty of credible women leaders besides Hillary Clinton, who could make a strong run for president or veep.
At The Economist, Lexington offers some insights about “The war of the words: How Republicans and Democrats use language.” Among Lexington’s observations: “Republicans are also better, Democrats fear, at agreeing on a message and sticking to it. Frank Luntz, a Republican consultant, once said: “There’s a simple rule. You say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and then again and again and again and again, and about the time that you’re absolutely sick of saying it is about the time that your target audience has heard it for the first time.””
The editors of the NYT’s The Caucus have an updated statistical profile of the “Racial Makeup of Red and Blue America.”
Mark Sappenfield of The Monitor’s ‘DC Decoder’ blog explores a question of increasing interest to Dems, “Texas abortion uproar: Could backlash turn Lone Star State blue?” As Sappenfiled notes, “The demographics of the Lone Star State suggest irresistible change. The 2010 Census showed that 45 percent of Texans are white, 38 percent are Latino, and 11 percent are black, with other ethnic groups making up the remaining 6 percent. A decade before, the white-Latino split was 53 to 32 percent. White Texans, already no longer a majority, will soon no longer even be the plurality.” However, “10 to 15 percent of Texas Latinos are not citizens. The Latino population also trends much younger than the white population, meaning a larger share of Texas Latinos have not yet reached voting age.”
Paul Krugman posts on why “There Is No “True” Unemployment Rate” and discusses the uses of the ‘U3’ and ‘U6″ unemployment rates.
A new Gallup poll finds that “In U.S., More Relate to Democrats Than GOP on Immigration.” Asked “which political party’s policies on immigration and immigration reform come closer to your own?,” 48 percent chose the Democratic party, with 36 percent picking the Republican party. Further, 41 percent of non-Hispanic whites selected Dems, vs. 42 percent for Republicans. The figures for African Americans were 70 percent for Dems and 14 percent for Republicans, while Latinos chose Dems by a margin of 60-26.


Political Strategy Notes

George Wentworth, senior staff attorney for the National Employment Law Project has a perceptive Huffpo post, “How to Disappear the Unemployed (See North Carolina),” which explains the strategy behind a new Republican terminology scam. As Wentworth explains, “in an increasing number of states, the perceived “problem” is no longer “unemployment” — it’s the “unemployed.” And the most convenient and politically facile way to attack the unemployed is to attack unemployment insurance, the New Deal insurance program that provides modest income support to qualifying workers who lose their jobs through no fault of their own.” Wentworth notes that Republican Governor McCrory’s initiative “will cost the state roughly $700 million that would otherwise go to long-term unemployed workers and their families — and directly back into North Carolina’s economy.”
Chris Bowers of Daily Kos has an e-blast urging all progressives to “please join Daily Kos and CREDO by demanding that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Democrats pass meaningful filibuster reform that eliminates the filibuster for all presidential nominations, including judges. Click here to sign the petition.”
E. J. Dionne, Jr. challenges Republicans like William Kristol and Rich Lowry to demonstrate their new-found concern for low wages to support a minimum wage hike. “It’s heartwarming to know that the editors of the Weekly Standard and National Review are now worried about depressed wages. In truth, granting immigrants who are here illegally basic labor rights would have a positive effect on wages for all workers. But if Kristol and Lowry are really worried about low-paid workers, let their next literary collaboration be an endorsement of a $9 or $10 hourly minimum wage.”
Ed Kilgore’s Washington Monthly post, “Rand Paul and His Confederate Friends” unmasks the rancid core of Paul’s pitch: “As Jonathan Chait observed yesterday, at some point you have to figure that the chronic association of secessionists and racists with the Paul Revolution (and more generally with libertarianism and “constitutional conservatism”) exists for a reason; it’s not a coincidence or a figment of hostile imaginations.” Kilgore shares Chait’s quote: “The deep connection between the Pauls and the neo-Confederate movement doesn’t discredit their ideas, but it’s also not just an indiscretion. It’s a reflection of the fact that white supremacy is a much more important historical constituency for anti-government ideas than libertarians like to admit.”
At The National Journal, Beth Rheinhard’s “Bob McDonnell’s Growing Scandal Could Spill Over to Ken Cuccinelli” indicates that Dem candidate for VA Governor Terry McAuliffe may have found the edge he needs to defeat his GOP rival. As tea party activist Eric Odom, quoted in the post, puts it: “Right now it’s a case of a terrible optics, and it’s essentially handed a McAuliffe an arsenal of political ammunition. He probably has ten campaign ads against Cuccinelli lined up and ready to go.”
In his ‘The Conscience of a Liberal’ post, “Income, Race and Voting,” Paul Krugman mulls over some exit poll data and observes “Contrary to what some people keep saying, people with higher incomes, other things equal, tend to vote Republican. Cut through the noise and fog, and it is true that Democrats broadly want to redistribute income down, and Republicans want to redistribute income up — and on average, voters get that (which is why “libertarian populism” is hot air).”
Mark Z. Barabak’s L.A. Times article, “Texas Democrats feel a change in the wind” provides an informative update on the political and demographic transformation gaining momentum in the Lone Star state.
in his New York Times Opinionator post, “The Decline of Black Power in the South,” Thomas B. Edsall notes that “Where possible, Republican redistricting strategists have reduced the number of blacks in white Democratic legislative districts in order to render the incumbent vulnerable to Republican challenge. In other areas of the state, where it has not been not possible to “bleach” a district, Republicans have sharply increased the percentage of blacks to over 50 percent in order to encourage a successful black challenge to the white Democratic incumbent.”
The Nation has a worthy action widget, “Thank and Support moral Mondays” — a way progressives can support North Carolina activists in their protests against GOP voter suppression and right-wing extremism in that state.
Earth to Ann Coulter…ahh, never mind.


Political Strategy Notes

At last some action to at least weaken Mitch McConnell’s abusive veto power. In his NYT article, “Democrats Plan Challenge to G.O.P.’s Filibuster Use,” Jeremy T. Peters reports that “The rule change they would seek is intended to be limited. It would allow senators to continue to filibuster legislation and judges, but not appointments to federal agencies or cabinet posts.”
And McConnell’s re-election is by no means a sure thing, as Micah Cohen explains at FiveThirtyEight.com.
At The Fix Chris Cillizza explains why Dems are in serious need of young congressional candidates: “In 2011, the average age for a Democrat in the House/Senate was 60.8 years old while the average Republican was 56 years old.Compare that to ten years ago — the 107th Congress — when the average age was 55.7 for Democrats and 54.7 percent for Republicans.”
While Cillizza’s article sheds no light on which states are doing better or worse at recruiting younger congressional candidates, there are indications that some Democratic parties are in crisis. In Georgia, where Obama got 46.9 percent in 2012, for example, Jim Galloway reports in the Atlanta Journal Constitution that the state Democratic party had only $15K banked at the end of May, which “won’t quite buy you a new Hyundai Elantra.”
Also writing in the new York Times, Cornell University economics professor Robert H. Frank reports on the success the Germany has had with their no-nonsense commitment to infrastructure investment and the folly in postponing needed infrastructure repairs in the U.S.: “The Germans are investing in infrastructure not to provide short-term economic stimulus, but because those investments promise high returns. Yet their undeniable side effect has been to bolster employment substantially in the short run…The Germans didn’t become bogged down in debate over stimulus policy, and they didn’t explicitly portray their infrastructure push as stimulus. But that didn’t hamper their strategy’s remarkable effectiveness at putting people to work. The unemployment rate in Germany, at 5.3 percent and falling, is now substantially lower than in the United States, where it ticked up to 7.6 percent last month. (By contrast, in March 2007, before the financial crisis, the rate in Germany was 9.2 percent, about five percentage points higher than in the United States.).”
The GOP’s filibuster dictatorship in the Senate notwithstanding, Greg Sargent says it well at the Plum Line: “The problem isn’t generic “Washington gridlock.” It’s the House GOP.”
The Crystal Ball’s Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley see a GOP net gain in the Senate in 2014, but a takeover is a little more problematic. At this juncture they see Dems with 48 safe seats, vs. 47 for the GOP, with 5 toss-ups. If Brian Schweitzer runs in MT and Michelle Nunn runs in GA, the picture brightens considerably for Dems.
Texas Governor Rick Perry’s decision not to run for re-election in 2014 has kick-started buzz excitement for Democratic rising star Sen. Wendy Davis as a possible replacement. But Davis faces the possibility of stiff competition from San Antonio’s Democratic Mayor Julian Castro. Either way, The extremely well-financed Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott seems to have the GOP field all to himself, which gives any Democratic candidate a hard way to go, reports Sean Sullivan at The Fix.
TNR’s Nate Cohn explains why “Winning More White Voters Won’t Save the GOP.” Says Cohn: “Reversing the anti-GOP trend among non-southern white voters will probably require changes in messaging or policy, probably by moderating on both economic and cultural issues. The Electoral College encourages the GOP to make gains across a diverse swath of swing states, and they need to push back against the equally diverse Democratic attacks that have hobbled the GOP: the attacks on cultural issues that hurt Republicans around Denver, Washington, and Columbus; the depiction of the GOP as the party of the elite, which has hurt the GOP just about everywhere; and yes, the challenges immigration reform poses in Las Vegas, Denver, Orlando-Kissimmee, and Miami.”
Michael Tomasky flags a clever new Koch brothers television ad designed to whip up opposition to Obamacare. At the Daily Beast Tomasky argues that Dems need to get equally-creative to confront the GOP’s latest assaault on the Affordable Care Act. “The pro-reform side isn’t going to get very far with statistics. They need their own army of sympathetic mothers.” He cites the impassioned pro-ACA presentation of Stacy Lihn, mother of a toddler with congenital heart disease at the Democratic convention last year as an excellent template.


Don’t Mess with Texas…Women

As disheartening as was the Supreme Court ruling on voting rights, there was one bright spot in the news yesterday. You can read about it most anywhere, but HuffPo’s “Texas Abortion Bill Filibustered By State Senator Wendy Davis Is Dead” provides a well-described and vividly-illustrated account:

The Texas anti-abortion bill, which threatened to close nearly all of the abortion clinics in the state and prompted an 11-hour filibuster by state Sen. Wendy Davis (D), is dead, The Austin American-Statesman reported…Lawmakers had to vote on Senate Bill 5 before the special session’s end at 12 a.m. local time. However, protesters halted the proceedings 15 to 20 minutes before the roll call could be completed.
The crowd of demonstrators in the capitol cried “Shame! Shame!” when Davis’ filibuster was halted by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who ruled that her discussion of mandatory ultrasound testing was off-topic. Then the protesters roared after state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte asked, “At what point must a female senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized over her male colleagues?”
Their cries continued to echo inside the chamber — and over a livestream watched by thousands around the world — until after the midnight deadline passed.,,,A time stamp showing the vote completed after midnight was the deciding factor. “This will not become law,” Sen. John Whitmire (D), told The Austin American-Statesman.

Naturally the Republicans are all bent out of shape about it, and they will surely try again to press the case that clueless guys with bizarre understanding of sexual biology should have dominion over women’s bodies.
For now, however, stetsons off to the progressive women of Texas who refuse to be bullied. As Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood, tweeted about the incident “The official vote was recorded at 12:03 a.m. Know why? Because of you. #StandWithWendy #SB5 #TXLege.” Howya liking the filibuster now, Republicans?


How Commentator Denial Enables Political Gridlock

In his Wonkblog post, “Ross Douthat gets Washington right, then very wrong,” Ezra Klein gets the New York Times columnist right. Douthat argued that the political establishment’s current focus on lower-priority concerns like gun control, immigration and climate change, when the public wants action on jobs and the economy, shows how out-of-touch ‘Washington’ is. Klein explains:

Much of the work here is done by bundling all the relevant players into a disappointing, elitist mass Douthat simply calls “Washington.” It’s “Washington” that’s failing. “Washington” that is not “readying, say, payroll tax relief for working-class families.” “Washington” where “we’re left with the peculiar spectacle of a political class responding to a period of destructive long-term unemployment with an agenda that threatens to help extend that crisis.”

Douthat departs from the “blame Washington” meme long enough to note that “the public’s non-priorities look like the entirety of the White House’s second-term agenda.” It’s a fairly transparent propaganda trick. Blame the entire political system for the paralyzing obstructionism of a faction in congress, while singling out the major player willing to compromise for the common good as somehow responsible for the failure to secure an agreement.
The political system in Washington — not the capitol itself — is broken in places, but not in ways that Douthat is willing to acknowledge. The abuse of the filibuster, for example, is a destructive systemic malady, which must be fixed before a working consensus can be secured. Yet, even this systemic impediment exists because of the Republican Party’s refusal to negotiate in good faith on the priority concerns of jobs and the economy, as well as nearly all other issues.
“Washington” has become a term that conflict-averse and pro-Republican commentators use to delude the public, and in some cases themselves, that GOP obstructionism is not the core problem. Opinion polls indicate that it’s not working all that well. Sure, millions of people parrot silly expressions like “Washington is out of touch.” But when specifically asked which party is more out of touch, in poll after poll more will say it’s the Republicans.
The better conservative columnists and commentators like Will, Brooks and Douthat, will occasionally fault the GOP for lame comments by its leaders and dumb tactical moves. But when it comes to assessing the GOP’s grand strategy of knee-jerk, full-tilt obstructionism to anything significant proposed by the President or Democrats, top conservative commentators shrug it off. They never defend the gridlock strategy directly, but their silence knowingly gives it a free pass. Their party — and America — would be better-served if they opened up the dialogue.