For a while there, the independent ticket of ex-Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan seemed to be taking crucial votes away from Democrat Joe Biden, at least as indicated by comparing three-way and five-way (with Cornel West and Jill Stein) polls to head-to-head matchups of the incumbent and Donald Trump. Now, even as Biden has all but erased his polling deficit against Trump, he’s getting some more good news in surveys that include other candidates.
Two recent major national polls show Biden running better in a five-way than a two-way race. According to NBC News, Biden moves from two points down to two points up when the non-major-party candidates are included. In the latest Marist poll, Biden leads Trump by three points head-to-head and by five points in a five-way race. Since left-bent candidates West and Stein are pulling 5 percent in the former poll and 4 percent in the latter (presumably taking very few votes from Trump), you have to figure Kennedy is beginning to cut into the MAGA vote to an extent that should get Team Trump’s attention. And it has, NBC News reports:
“Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he’s confident that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will pull more votes away from President Joe Biden than from him — a net win for the Republican’s candidacy.
“’He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine,’Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. ‘I love that he is running!’
“Behind closed doors, however, Trump is less sure. A Republican who was in the room with Trump this year as he reviewed polling said Trump was unsure how Kennedy would affect the race, asking the other people on hand whether or not Kennedy was actually good for his candidacy.”
Politico notes that Kennedy is drawing higher favorability numbers from Republican voters than from Democratic ones, which could indicate a higher ceiling for RFJ Jr. among Trump defectors. And it’s generally assumed from his past performances that there is a lower ceiling on Trump’s support than on Biden’s; he needs to be able to win with significantly less than a majority of the popular vote, as one Republican told Politico:
“’If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,’ Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. ‘They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.’”
One likely reason that Kennedy could be appealing to Republicans is the residual effect from the positive attention he received from conservative media when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primaries; his identification with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories also resonates more positively on the right side of the political spectrum than the left. So it’s in the interest of Team Trump to begin telling the former president’s sympathizers that RFK Jr. is actually a lefty, and that started happening recently, as the New York Times reported: “Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pointed in particular to Mr. Kennedy’s views on climate change and the environment, writing on his social media site that Mr. Kennedy was more ‘radical Left’ than Mr. Biden.”
The idea, of course, is not only to discourage potential Trump voters from drifting toward the independent candidate, but to encourage potential Biden voters to consider a Kennedy vote.
If Kennedy continues to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, each of their campaigns will need to make a strategic decision about how to deal with him: Do you ignore him and count on the usual fade in support afflicting non-major-party presidential candidates as Election Day nears, or do you attack him as too far left (if you’re Trump) or too far right (if you’re Biden) and try to make him a handicap to your major-party opponent? The more aggressive approach has become common among Democrats seeking to intervene in Republican primaries (or in the recent case of the California Senate race, a nonpartisan top-two primary) by loudly attacking candidates they’d prefer to face in the general election, encouraging Republicans to flock to the supposed menace to progressivism. This kind of tactic — if deployed with some serious dollars — could have an effect on Kennedy’s base of support.
Certainly Trump seems to be considering it. With his usual practice of saying the quiet part out loud, Trump opined: “If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden, because he’s frankly more in line with Democrats.”
Trying to minimize losses to Kennedy and maximize opposite-party votes for Kennedy could become a routine practice down the stretch. Where and by whom this strategy is pursued will depend in part on where RFK Jr. is ultimately on the ballot. Right now he has nailed down ballot access in just two states, Utah and Michigan. CBS News reports the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is close to securing a spot on the November ballot in a number of other states:
“Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
“The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.”
Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. But if it begins to look like RFK Jr. has become an existential threat to Democrats or to Republicans, you can bet they’ll go medieval on him without even a moment’s hesitation.
Here’s another idea for reversing SCOTUS’ ruling on Citizens United v. FEC;
A diarist named Smintheus posted on unbossed.com a very quick and simply remedy for this power-grab by corporations;
Congress should prohibit any corporation from engaging in this new political spending if it has any non-American shareholders, or owners. Because after all, foreigners have no 1st amendment protections.
This brilliant idea was picked up by PLS who posted the diary “How to hoist the SCOTUS on their own petards!!!” on Daily Kos. This stroke of genius not only undoes SCOTUS’ treasonous decision, it seriously weakens the hold corporations CURRENTLY have over our democracy.
This is AN EXCELLENT way to punish SCOTUS and the Republicans for attempting a coup of our government on behalf of corporations.
Here is the statute upon which the tactic succeeds;
U.S. Code § 441e. Contributions and donations by foreign nationals
(a) Prohibition
It shall be unlawful for—
(1) a foreign national, directly or indirectly, to make—
(A) a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value, or to make an express or implied promise to make a contribution or donation, in connection with a Federal, State, or local election;
(B) a contribution or donation to a committee of a political party; or
(C) an expenditure, independent expenditure, or disbursement for an electioneering communication (within the meaning of section 434 (f)(3) of this title); or
(2) a person to solicit, accept, or receive a contribution or donation described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) from a foreign national.
(b) “Foreign national” defined
As used in this section, the term “foreign national” means—
(1) a foreign principal, as such term is defined by section 611 (b) of title 22, except that the term “foreign national” shall not include any individual who is a citizen of the United States; or
(2) an individual who is not a citizen of the United States or a national of the United States (as defined in section 1101 (a)(22) of title 8) and who is not lawfully admitted for permanent residence, as defined by section 1101 (a)(20) of title 8.
Here is the above mentioned section 434 (f)(3)
3) Electioneering communication
For purposes of this subsection—
(A) In general
(i) The term “electioneering communication” means any broadcast, cable, or satellite communication which—
(I) refers to a clearly identified candidate for Federal office;
(II) is made within—
(aa) 60 days before a general, special, or runoff election for the office sought by the candidate; or
(bb) 30 days before a primary or preference election, or a convention or caucus of a political party that has authority to nominate a candidate, for the office sought by the candidate; and
(III) in the case of a communication which refers to a candidate for an office other than President or Vice President, is targeted to the relevant electorate.
(ii) If clause (i) is held to be constitutionally insufficient by final judicial decision to support the regulation provided herein, then the term “electioneering communication” means any broadcast, cable, or satellite communication which promotes or supports a candidate for that office, or attacks or opposes a candidate for that office (regardless of whether the communication expressly advocates a vote for or against a candidate) and which also is suggestive of no plausible meaning other than an exhortation to vote for or against a specific candidate. Nothing in this subparagraph shall be construed to affect the interpretation or application of section 100.22(b) of title 11, Code of Federal Regulations.
– end of code description –
Piecing together the most salient parts of the above statute, we have the following;
“It shall be unlawful for a foreign national, directly or indirectly, to make a contribution in connection with a Federal, State, or local election, or expenditure for an electioneering communication. The term “electioneering communication” means any broadcast, cable, or satellite communication which refers to a clearly identified candidate for Federal office, is made within 60 days before a general, special, or 30 days before a primary or preference election.”
The limiting phrase in this law is “which refers to a clearly identified candidate for Federal office.” Because the Citizens United v. FEC ruling refers to non-identified candidate communications, what Congress needs to do is extend this statute to include ANY elections-related communications. An example of why this extension seems very reasonable would be in order to prevent a foreigner from an oil producing country from bombarding U.S. television shows with ads that claim “Global warming is just a hoax; keep buying our oil.”
Smintheus’ solution seems very promising. We should explore it a bit further, and if it proves solid, quickly take action on it.
With their ruling in favor of Citizens United v. FEC, the Conservative members of the Supreme Court have committed treason far more dangerous and egregious than their having stolen the 2000 election for Bush. This time they have gone too far by handing our democracy to corporations. The way to remedy this treason is simple and straightforward.
The first step is for Congress to end or fix the filibuster rule so that Republican and Blue Dog Senators can no longer usurp majority rule in the Senate, and prevent the second step.
The second step is for Congress to create two new Supreme Court seats, increasing the total number of justices from nine to eleven. FDR failed in this in the 1930s because he tried to create SIX new justices, and because he was not facing as great an assault on our democracy as we are now. The American People would support Congress’s appointing these two new justices in order to preserve our democracy.
The third and final step is for someone to challenge the new ruling in the courts and have the suit move its way up to the Supreme Court. I’m not sure if that can happen before the Citizens United v. FEC decision allows corporations to hijack the 2010 election. If so, such a delay is not an acceptable option.
Until Citizens United v. FEC is overturned, Obama and the Democratic Congress have a course of action. According to the Constitution, the President is not bound by Supreme Court decisions. There is a famous instance when the Supreme Court rendered a decision and a president said something to the effect that; “Well, you’ve made your decision. Now try to enforce it.” I think it was FDR, but I’m not sure on that.
SCOTUS’ handing our democracy to corporations with this decision can and will, if we let it stand, defeat any and every major progressive initiative after the 2010 elections. If this decision stands, we risk losing both our Senate and House majorities.
We need to put aside every other initiative right now and concentrate our power on defeating this decision by advocating for Congress to end the filibuster, create two new SCOTUS seats, and then have the new SCOTUS reverse the decision. We need to alert the public about this assault on our democracy so that they will fully back Congress’s decision to end the filibuster in order to create the two new seats.
We cannot do everything at once. If we try to assume a business-as-usual approach and continue to work on many other initiative while also working on this one, we risk failing. That is not an option we can afford.
WE NEED TO TABLE ALL OTHER INITIATIVES UNTIL WE GET THIS JOB DONE.
The vast majority of blog posts on all of the Liberal/Progressive sites for the next several weeks should be about getting this done. We should organize our efforts so that some blogs are focusing on some parts of this, and other blogs are focusing on others. We need to organize and fight like our democracy depended on it, because it does.