One very central dynamic in the recent saga of Democratic anxiety over Joe Biden’s chances against Donald Trump, given the weaknesses he displayed in his first 2024 debate, has been the role of his understudy, Vice-President Kamala Harris. My colleague Gabriel Debenedetti explained the problem nearly two years ago as the “Kamala Harris conundrum”:
“Top party donors have privately worried to close Obama allies that they’re skeptical of Harris’s prospects as a presidential candidate, citing the implosion of her 2020 campaign and her struggles as VP. Jockeying from other potential competitors, like frenemy Gavin Newsom, suggests that few would defer to her if Biden retired. Yet Harris’s strength among the party’s most influential voters nonetheless puts her in clear pole position.”
The perception that Harris is too unpopular to pick up the party banner if Biden dropped it, but too well-positioned to be pushed aside without huge collateral damage, was a major part of the mindset of political observers when evaluating Democratic options after the debate. But now fresher evidence of Harris’s public standing shows she’s just as viable as many of the candidates floated in fantasy scenarios about an “open convention,” “mini-primary,” or smoke-filled room that would sweep away both parts of the Biden-Harris ticket.
For a good while now, Harris’s job-approval numbers have been converging with Biden’s after trailing them initially. These indicate dismal popularity among voters generally, but not in a way that makes her an unacceptable replacement candidate should she be pressed into service in an emergency. As of now, her job-approval ratio in the FiveThirtyEight averages is 37.1 percent approve to 51.2 percent disapprove. Biden’s is 37.4 percent approve to 56.8 percent disapprove. In the favorability ratios tracked by RealClearPolitics, Harris is at 38.3 favorable to 54.6 percent unfavorable, while Biden is at 39.4 percent favorable to 56.9 percent unfavorable. There’s just not a great deal of difference other than slightly lower disapproval/unfavorable numbers for the veep.
On the crucial measurement of viability as a general-election candidate against Trump, there wasn’t much credible polling prior to the post-debate crisis. An Emerson survey in February 2024 showed Harris trailing Trump by 3 percent (43 percent to 46 percent), which was a better showing than Gavin Newsom (down ten points, 36 percent to 46 percent) or Gretchen Whitmer (down 12 points, 33 percent to 45 percent).
After the debate, though, there was a sudden cascade of polling matching Democratic alternatives against Trump, and while Harris’s strength varied, she consistently did as well as or better than the fantasy alternatives. The first cookie on the plate was a one-day June 28 survey from Data for Progress, which showed virtually indistinguishable polling against Trump by Biden, Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer. All of them trailed Trump by 2 to 3 percent among likely voters.
Then two national polls released on July 2 showed Harris doing better than other feasible Biden alternatives. Reuters/Ipsos (which showed Biden and Trump tied) had Harris within a point of Trump, while Newsom trailed by three points, Andy Beshear by four, Whitmer by five, and Pritzker by six points. Similarly, CNN showed Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing him by five points.
Emerson came back with a new poll on July 9 that wasn’t as sunny as some for Democrats generally (every tested name trailed Trump, with Biden down by three points). But again, Harris (down by six points) did better than Newsom (down eight points); Buttigieg and Whitmer (down ten points); and Shapiro (down 12 points).
There’s been some talk that Harris might help Democrats with base constituencies that are sour about Biden. There’s not much publicly available evidence testing that hypothesis, though the crosstabs in the latest CNN poll do show Harris doing modestly better than Biden among people of color, voters under the age of 35, and women.
The bottom line is that one element of the “Kamala Harris conundrum” needs to be reconsidered. There should be no real drop-off in support if Biden (against current expectations) steps aside in favor of his vice-president (the only really feasible “replacement” scenario at this point). She probably has a higher ceiling of support than Biden as well, but in any event, she would have a fresh opportunity to make a strong first or second impression on many Americans who otherwise know little about her.
I’m watching Bush speaking in Wheeling, WV, on C-SPAN. He’s well ahead there, so presumably he’s preaching to the converted, but when the cameras panned the gym where he’s speaking, I saw empty seats. Curious. Maybe they couldn’t find enough people who would sign loyalty pledges.
I arrived in the state of Washington on August 16 to a poll by the Seattle Times (I think) showing Kerry up by about 10%. But within a few days I started seeing the DNC healthcare and MoveON aWol ads (both excellent), followed by some negative ads from Bush. Disconcerting to see that both camps see Wash. as still in play, but comforted by sophistication of Kerry ads.
Molly, I’ve gone back and re-read your original post, and you’re right: I did misread it. Too much eagerness on my part to pop off, I guess.
As to your other issue, I’m sticking by my “handle” for now, although I appreciate your sentiments. And we are, indeed, on the same side (I already knew this), so keep up the good posting. : – )
I am pretty sure Kerry has (except for the most tentative feelers) and its the rank and file Dems who haven’t.
Doofus,
go back and read my orignal post: The key to the Swiftboat ad # 2 is Swiftboat ad # 1. the Talking Point is simple.
If you like your handle, ok with me. But I just don’t like calling you what is ordinairly an insulting name, particularly since we sem to be on the same side.
I guess McCain not offer Kerry any support this time around. Kerry needs to move on and simply ignore the existence of a McCain.
Molly wrote: “Doofus (you got to get a better handle). R emember, what I wrote is what out talking points should be- You can’t trust SBVT they have no credibility. The Question why won’t Bush… is rhetorical, an answer is not expected. Its meant to highlight Bush’s hypocrisy. ”
First of all, I like my “handle,” thank you very much. As for your questions, you did not pose them rhetorically, or present them as suggested talking points. So I simply answered them.
Nothing is going on Ed.. I think that we are placing too much emphasis on these polls right now. I dont think we can get the full effects of the polls until about two weeks after the kerry and move-on rebuttals and responses are studied.
I get the impression that the polls issued recently can only show the net effects of the challenge offered by the swift boat adverts at a time when there were no rebuttals and responses.
If in two weeks time, Kerry continues to lose or is tied in most polls, then there is much reason for concern and there would be no doubts that the ads had lasting effect.
In the mean time tho, the kerry supporters would do well to add more coals to the grill and get more heat in the place. The repubs are coming together and their rallying cries are in the air. McCain will not even break rank to help Kerry when he needs him. Even tho Kerry supported him in 2000.
Its time to throw down the guantlet and fight bush, face to face… fist to fist.
Cheers
Would someone tell me what the XXXX is going on?! A left wing news paper has Bush ahead! and a right wing news network has Kerry ahead! Also what hapened to the CNN/Gallup poll?
Doofus (you got to get a better handle)
Remember, what I wrote is what out talking points should be- You can’t trust SBVT they have no credibility.
The Question why won’t Bush… is rhetorical, an answer is not expected. Its meant to highlight Bush’s hypocrisy.
Slight correction to the record: William Jennings Bryan was the Democratic candidate for President in 1896, 1900 and 1908. I believe the immortal Alton Parker was crushed by Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. But I obviously understand the meaning behind your message.
I am not a conservative. I’m not even a moderate. In fact, I find “liberal” to be too middle of the road to describe my political position. And, everybody in my family has voted democratic since my grandfather voted for Willian Jennings Bryan in 1904.
I take it you haven’t read my paens to the great progressive presidents, TR, FDR, Truman, and LBJ, that I have posted on this site in answer to the “conservative” trolls that come by occaisionally.
I’m really getting scared by these conservatives who post here! We’ve got to stop them. The “Left” Angeles Times……god they’re so clever. We can’t beat them, we just can’t…..sigh. I’m rolling over now and crying.
Please stop posting here, please. Please.
Faux Nooz has just released a poll that shows Kerry one point ahead among “likely voters”! When the liberal paper shows Kerry behind and the right-wing National Enquirer Faux Network shows him ahead, it’s time to get out the chicken bone oracle and cast magical spells to divine the true nature of this race.
It could be that the Swift boat ads have hurt Kerry a little in the short run (amazingly enough), although Sara’s point that the LAT poll was finished before the counterattack causes me to question even that.
Kerry rose to the occasion at the convention with a strong speech. Franklyo, who seems to have followed him more closely over the years than just about anyone else who posts here, vouches for him in the clutch. And Kerry wasn’t expected to beat Weld in ’96. I have faith that he will do his part and come through when it’s bottoms-up. Come the debates, the President will have no place to hide, and no one else to do his dirty work for him.
Ruy, come back! I always come to this site when a new poll comes out — you always have the best take on what these things mean!
I’ve been visiting that 2.004k.com site, which has good data, but no narrative — and nothing beyond the “horse race.”
Molly: That’s simple. Bush won’t condemn them because: (1) he is a ruthless, cruel politician with no scruples (nice guy, my ass); and — more importantly — (2) they’re working. Remember Florida? The Max Cleland and John McCain smears? Did he condemn those? No. He is a very dangerous man, and God help us if he’s reelected.
The key to the Swiftboat ad # 2 is Swiftboat ad # 1. the Talking Point is simple.
SBVT have been throughly discredited, their claims in ad # 1 were proven to be lies. Kerry’s record is backed by the documentary record and by actual eyewitnesses. SBVT had no first hand knowledge of the events, they weren’t there and the SBVT have consistently told 2 stories about John Kerry’s war record. Which story are they selling us today about Kerry’s medals? Which story should we believe? The SBVT have no credibility and you cannot trust a word they say.
Now SBVT are selling us a new story about John Kerry. Same tactics as before, different issue. You couldn’t trust the SBVT before, you can’t trust them now. They took part of a quote to manufacture a story. The truth is Kerry supported the troops in his 1971 testimony and he condemned the political leaders of the day for failing the troops. Why won’t Bush explicitly condemn these smear tactics?
End of Story.
It’s the strangest thing I have seen since I have been following politics . . . there is absolutely no one that I know that is undecided or sitting on the fence. All of both Kerry and Bush supporters have made up their minds and they haven’t changed their minds in a long time. Nothing has changed their minds . . . not Abu Ghraib, not Farhenheidt 9/11, not Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. If there are undecideds out there, they are few and far between.
Oops. Not a “couple months.” That would be too late. I forget how late it is already! I meant a month.
Brace yourselves, everyone. Although I have no inside info, I’m willing to bet the Gallup poll will be bad news. Not because I think Kerry is losing, but because we are at that time in the cycle when Republicans begin to tune in and rally around their guy, while Dems are still wandering around in a fog. Dems begin their process in of coalescing in a couple months. Expect a 3-4 point Bush lead.
The Abu Ghraib reports, which conclude that accountability for the scandal run at least all the way up to Rumsfeld, got HUGE play in today’s Washington Post. This scandal had receded from the news, but in its first incarnation had hurt Bush. The question is: Will the media give it the sustained, intensive coverage that they’ve given to the Swift Boat Liars campaign? It is, of course, of MUCH greater importance and signficance, and by rights ought to generate many, many news stories, which could only hurt Bush and give Kerry an opening to criticize the administration. But . . . the media was quick to drop it before, and I’m not confident that they’ll give the attention it deserves this time around, either.
To Allan Bartlett:
I recall the last time the L.A. Times ran a poll and showed Kerry ahead Republicans whined that it was a “flawed poll”. If it shows Bushn ahead his time to be consistent you must say it is a flawed poll.
On that LA poll. They finished interviews before the counterattack on the Slick Swifties was running, meaning that poll reads the situation when the attackers were in assendency. And since I suspect it is not totally wound out yet — we need to hold back on claims one way or another as to impact. In fact it may be difficult to measure, as this weekend everything gets mixed up with Bush’s convention.
Kerry gave up the lead today however when he renewed his demand that Rumsfeld resign. Good Editorial to that effect in Thursday’s New York Times, and I hope Kerry turns into this demand now, and lets the Swifties settle. Too much Vietnam is alienating voters under 48 — as it was only those over that age who either served or were impacted by the war directly. If Kerry could find the opening to make Bush’s “lying” and taking support from “liars” morf into a discussion about lying to get into a war a bit more recently (say 2003) then he might make substantial gains.
He will be here tomorrow to talk about Health Care in Anoka County (just north of the Twin Cities — home of Garrison Keillor) and late this evening he is meeting privately with Vets. Of interest — Jesse Ventura has started an independent group very critical of Bush — he is campaigning against the way the National Guard is being used in Iraq. Jesse is disturbed that the Guard is not really trained for active duity, and they are being sent with bad aged equiptment, and all — so he has started a national organization against Bush on that score. Jesse was a Navy Seal in Vietnam — and while governor, commander of the Minnesota National Guard. It just might help Kerry in Anoka County which is socially conservative on some issues such as gay marriage and abortion, but real pro military and working class. Kerry will be at the local voc-tech college. In Minnesota, Anoka is where lots of swing voters will be found.
I also believe that the 10 to 15% of voters who are non-aligned will break to the candidate who has the most energized following…… again the Repubs. One has to admire their fanatical zeal and discipline. In these days that’s what wins elections.
Is this a faith based prediction? The idea that leaner dems will break republican is a pipe dream, its either Kerry or stay home.
I’m extremely optimistic on Kerry’s chances, and think that regaining one of the houses of congress is possible given another shock or two to the body politic courtesy of rotten republican policy. So, worry about the presidential race if you want, but keep an eye on congress.
The LAT poll as reported above looks reasonable to me. Repubs are closing ranks fast and comprehensively. The Dems are not. As in the 2000 race, Dem defections will probably outstrip Repub defections to Kerry. That’s the way we are.
I also believe that the 10 to 15% of voters who are non-aligned will break to the candidate who has the most energized following…… again the Repubs. One has to admire their fanatical zeal and discipline. In these days that’s what wins elections.
Kerry’s leads in various states have been slipping and I lay that to the swift boat lies told by the GOP. The GOP has most of the national media cowed and has been especially effective in spinning the news for local anchors who are virtually clueless on the ins and outs of the unfolding story about the Bush people tied to the Texas gang who are mouthing the lies.
Kerry simply has to mobilize all elected Dems in Congress and state houses to start spending whatever political capital they have on his behalf. We can’t rejoice one bit just because Kerry’s numbers don’t look too bad after the viscious attacks of the past few weeks. Kerry has been hurt and it won’t be easy to get that slippage back.
I guess sleazeball politics still works, at least in the short-run. Rove and the boys went back to the old playbook and have apparently drawn blood.
Bush can’t win on a positive agenda. Smear and fear. Tear down Kerry and drive up his negatives to match Bush’s. Divide and conquer…my base is bigger than your base: squeeze out as much as possible from the evangelical true believers and engage in voter intimidation and suppression techniques to drive down minority turnout. (Don’t believe me – check out Bob Herbert’s last 3-4 columns in the NY Times.) How so very democratic with a small d! I certainly do feel pride in the inclusive tactics of my commander-in-chief as I admire his political handiwork. Wave the flag and salute, as he pits American against American.
Frankly, I’m a little surprised at these poll results, since the Not-So-Swifties have engaged in nothing short of a hit-and-run job on Kerry’s military service. Their case is objectively very weak. They’ve been discredited over and over on practically every major charge made. But I guess it doesn’t matter, because there’s always some other charge to go with a compliant news media that is all-too-ready to oblige by giving the liars more airtime. When disputed on the facts, just keep repeating over and over again why it is that 260 (or whatever) Swift boat guys (the great majority of whom didn’t know Kerry) don’t like Kerry. Plus, remind everyone that the all-powerful Kerry ran the Navy back then and approved all of his medals and awards himself. Throw the crap against the wall and see what sticks.
Anyway, the disclosure of the ’71 John O’Neill chat with Nixon about seeing action on the river in Cambodia was priceless. Didn’t see the grudge bearer on the talk shows tonight, but I’m looking forward to him talking himself out of this “inconvenient” little tape. Still, I guess there’s something to the old axiom that a lie will travel around the world twice before the truth has even strapped its boots on.
I can’t dispute the earlier posts about the electronic voting machine thing. As much as it pains me (I seriously don’t like to think this about other Americans), I have reluctantly come to share the belief that the crowd now in control of the GOP will do anything to hold onto power, including stealing a second election if they can get away with it. The claim that this “isn’t the party of Eisenhower” is unfortunately dead on.
However, I still remain hopeful that the American people will see through the lies, the distortions, and the absolute crap being thrown out by Bush, Rove & Co. There are simply too many things going wrong in this country right now and the American people know this. The polls show that they know this. As anybody familiar with Ruy’s work knows, the simple demographic numbers also argue against a second Bush term. I believe that Kerry is a good, solid and competent candidate. He’s a great closer and I still think he’ll destroy the bully in the White House during the debates.
As for the smear campaign, Bush might be up early in the ballgame, but so was the old red-baiter Joe McCarthy when he started out. His rip-and-shread strategy ended up destroying him. Call me naive, but I still believe that the good guys usually come out on top at the end. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this little morality play will have a happy ending come November.
The LAT’s Republicans for Kerry, Democrats for Bush numbers look wrong on the surface. I admit they may be solid and factually grounded. But Bush leads by 5 times in that category. Does that sound wrong to anyone else?
hmmmm….how to spin a poll by the Left Angeles Times 101. I can’t wait to read the next few posts
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/08/25/poll_shows_kerry_hurt_by_attacks.html
Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush “moving slightly” ahead of Sen. John Kerry “for the first time this year.” Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.
The newspaper’s analysis indicates Kerry “has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam.”
The “small shift” from last month’s poll “is within the poll’s margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.”
Independent voters split evenly, but Bush’s “tentative new advantage” seems to be “his greater success at onsolidating his base. While just 3% of voters who call themselves Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, Bush is drawing 15% just over one-seventh of all Democrats, and fully one-fifth 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found.”
The repubs are doing the right thing tho, they are fighting to the bitter end. This is highly commendable, even tho they are being nasty about it. If there is no referee, why fight by the rules? Who wants to be nice and squeeky clean when there is so much at stake and no one’s watching? Thats the repub approach. This is something that the Kerry supporters need to adopt also but a clean fight is highly desirable. Fight to the bitter end.
I dont see anything the matter with some measure of rejoicing and being positive along the way. Milestones deserve a celebration and Kerry has struck many milestones. He is coming from being an unkown to the guy that everyone is talking about and discussing. Not everyone is confident about him yet but at least they know he exists and is talking about him. Thats a cause for celebration.
This is the same guy who was talked about as being not so presidential, not so well known, not so well capable of delivering himself. Some were even asking why was he wearing such a long face. Thats not happening anymore. They are now discussing Kerry as a man of substance. They are aligning him with world leaders and wondering how would he approach them about Iraq and other world issues. They are now seeing Kerry as the man who is capable of being the next US president. This was not the case 1 year ago.
Lots have changed in the past 8 months and in that time, Kerry has come on stage and has taken over the microphone and is drawing listening ears as he speaks. This deserves a celebration.
Dont think however, that a celebration means complacency, not at all. Technically it should be a period for refuelling, rejeuvenation and re-doubling the efforts as everyone hits the road again. I doubt very much that anyone will see complacency from either of the parties from here in. There will be agression and pack attacks, esp. from the republicans. Look for end to end aggression from the GOP, each person saying the same thing, like clockwork.
The Kerry supporters dont need to be deterred by this but must be ready to launch their own pre-emptive attacks and counter those which break thru the barriers.
The media seems to be giving the Kerry supporters a bit more air time now and I hope that they capitalise on these opportunities. I am heartened to see and hear the Max Clelands and others stating their cases in the media now. Its a pity that they didnt start this a few months ago however but its never too late.
I look forward to events immediately after the convention and to the stats. when they become available. This week must have been a bad one for the Bush camp and its ideal that they go into the convention with Cheney having to mumble and stutter about his position and that of the president on gay marriages and relationships. Its also good that they have to enter this convention sucking up the junk they generated from this swift boat issue. It will be very interesting to see how they switch the subject during the convention.
If they cannot switch, then I wonder how will they ever get to show the people of America what will be on the plate for the first elected term.
Cheers
Can someone please tell me why our wimpy democrat side with Kerry as our leader is so slow, lame, and on the defensive?? Where are our powerful ads that rip at Bush in Alabama, Bush awol, Bush’s drunk driving, Bush’s coke use, his businesses failure, etc.??
People, we can’t continue to believe these flip-flop and vietnam ads are not making a differnece. This is 1988 all over again. Remember Dukkais was leading by 10-15% after the Dem. Convention, then Bush Sr. used ads on Willie Horton, and the pledge of alligence???
Im reading Clintons book “My Life,” and his critic of the Dukkais campaign was that it was to slow to react and always reactive. Doesn’t this sound familar???
Its time to get rid of Shrum, put in Carville, and kick dubya’s ass. No more time for playing nice with Rove and Co.
Those poll results do look encouraging, but I would echo Bakho’s caution and suggest that we not ice down the champagne yet. I don’t think that this Swift Boat thing has played fully out yet and thus this current set of polls may not accurately reflect its full impact, whether positive or negative for Bush. As others have noted, a new and potentially more damaging swifties ad is now running, the one dealing with Kerry’s congressional testimony. I’m still optimistic about Kerry’s chances, but these guys are so incredibly ruthless and underhanded that you have to keep looking in the rearview mirror for the next sleazy attack, coming up fast, and be prepared to fight many more skirmishes.
This swift boat thing has been in the back ground for some time but only recently has the media brought it to the foreground. I don’t know but maybe Hillary is right when she talks of the “vast right wing conspiracy” Anyway, I hear the next slime is going to be after the convention and they are going to start beating the drum of how Kerry was anti American when he came back from Military service. They have introduced it with another swift boat ad already. All this crap is putting doubt in the minds of the fence sitters. This is why we must fight with all that we have in us to destroy there lies.
What is Bush/Rove doing? First undermine Kerry’s status as war hero. Then attack Kerry’s patriotism.
http://georgewbush.com/KerryMediaCenter/Read.aspx?ID=3364
I disagree about the Swifties effect. Most of their ad ran in Ohio and WV. Both states have shifted to Bush. Both states have above average military participation.
Bush has neutralized at least some of Kerry’s advantage as war hero. However, the final vote will turn on the economy and Mr Bush has not done enough to create more jobs. Bush should lose based on the economy.
Over at Kos they say “assume we are 10 points behind”. Nobody should get complacent at this point. As someone said recently “My great fear is that we will wake up on November 3, George Bush will have won and we will say, ‘What more could we have done?'”
Dear snicker-snack,
We are currently powerless to stop it.
Love,
Mimiru
By the way… can anyone remember why this military records thing came into focus? I dont seem to remember now… and does anyone know what will be served by ragging this issue into the ground?
What does the GOP expect to gain by this campaign? Surely they know that their story has been proven to be lies and lies and then lies.. why would they continue with it?
Is this part of the “stay the course” Bush formula? What really are they expecting to gain?
Cheers
I doubt that I can find a Kerry supporter thats not happy tonight.. I know some have issued caution but I believe that people should celebrate at each milestone and every victory. Thats why we have birthday celebrations. So I think that all Kerry supporters can be happy tonight.
The news is showing that the rank and filers, along with the 527s are on the road and they are talking. Good results are happening. Kerry is on the attack and is looking at the entire white house as his target, starting with Rumsfeld. In each instance, I am sure he will slide all the way up to the prez, as the heart of the problem.
The middle men are also talking, some verbally, some in written word and some in person. Cleland and others are taking a stand. Things are happening postively for Kerry and his supporters.
The polls are also talking and the results are ideal. I am not sure what more can the Kerry supporters ask for at this junction. Personally, I hope that everyone is ready to fire off shots as soon as the convention is over, making sure to grab some media coverage and diffuse some of the impact which the convention might have.
Again, I cannot think of anythig new or positive that the convention can bring. I really think that Bush exhausted his promises during 2000, wasnt able to execute on any of them and hence he can only extend on those promises and beg for more time to make a lame attempt to get something done.
Even if he gets that extra time, it will still be trouble because every the economy wants a change in the whitehouse. Is there any single facet of the economy that is on the up and up?
However, I think the Kerry supporters are allowing McCain to sqeeze himself into a Saddam RAT hole and go quiet. There needs to be some agression to get McCain outta that RAT hole and either switch and represent him who represented him when Bush kicked him…. or stay with Bush and let Kerry know what kinda friend a McCain kinda person can make.
Either way, there is a burning need to squeeze him outta that hole and onto the airwave to declare his allegiance to the truth…
My arms are folded… I am waiting on McCain.
Cheers
I know this is not a topic for polite company and in the minds of many of you marks me out as a conspiracy nut but there really did seem to be some funny results in the 2002 election with sudden swings to the Republicans at the very last moment (Georgia in particular). These swings seemed to occur only in the areas with black box voting. My big fear is the 2004 results will be massively jebbed in some of the swing states, enough to allow a small victory for Sir Prance-a-lot. The Brat King just needs to stay close enough that not enough people feel compelled to give voice to their suspicions. In any case, the whole thing with computerized voting in the States is just nuts. In Australia (where they also have computer-based voting), they use open-source coding AND have paper receipts in case of dispute. In the States, proprietal coding apparently and no verifiable paper trail. Instead results to be taken on trust. Oh and most of the companies involved are owned by Republicans and totalitarian Christians. Wheesh.
Of course, the usual tricks with disenfranchising they’re already up to.
I really hope I’m wrong on this. I would rather look foolish than be right. But I’ve seen nothing, nothing that makes me want to give the current incarnation of the Republican party the benefit of the doubt. This is not the party of Eisenhower.
This is a remarkable poll, after two weeks of nothing but this swift boat crap that was supposedly damaging Kerry. And it has only been in the last couple of days, *after* this poll was taken, that the lies seem to have started backfiring! Is it possible that this Bush family trademarked dirty campaigning is losing its effectiveness? One can only hope.
I just heard that a new CNN/Gallup poll will be out tomorrow the first comprehensive one sence this swift boat crap; My fingers are crossed.
Pay no attention to that California poll. From what I’ve read, it’s an outlier that overpolled Republicans in the sample.
Kerry wins California by at least 10% when all is said and done. Bush hasn’t a prayer – if he did, he’d be spending time and money there. He’s got too many other vulnerable spots to defend in Purple America than to spend valuable resources in pursuing a fantasy of winning California.
Agreed. The latest smear campaign simply isn’t working. Every day another charge or another accuser is discredited. Kerry has stopped the bleeding and the Swift Boat smear shows every indication of backfiring.
Bush has no positive message. He only offers four more years of the same incompetence and ideological extremism. The American people have seen enough and have lost patience. It’s up to Kerry to close the deal over the last two months of the campaign. I have every confidence that he will do so. The man is steady and competent. He’s fully prepared for his moment.
I’m looking for a replay of Carter-Reagan in 1980, where things stayed pretty tight until the end and then most of the undecideds broke for Reagan. Bush simply can’t get above 45-47%. I don’t see him getting any more support from the fencesitters out there who have basically written him off already.
Rove, Dowd & Co. can spin and conspire as much as they want to, but the math simply doesn’t work for them.
I wonder when we are going to get a new poll in California? It seems like forever sense the last dissapointing poll. I am hopeing the next one will be more faborable for Kerry.
And, this is after at least two full weeks of the nastiest smear campaign since the Willie Horton ads that Daddy ran against Michael Dukakis.
A couple more weeks of this, especially if Kerry is still strong following the RNC, and it will cry out for a new theme: Unstoppable. John Kerry is simply and profoundly unstoppable.
The incumbent War President has thrown everything he has at this man, and Kerry cannot be stopped. He is a machine. He just keeps coming after them and they have no idea what to do about it. You can practically hear Karl Rove shreiking in desperation.
George W. Bush and his surrogates have spent, what, nearly 200 million dollars trying to destroy this man, and he just KEEPS COMING AFTER THEM.
This soldier, this statesman, this hero, this MAN who has spent his entire adult life in the service of the American people, cannot and will not be stopped before he completes his final assignment.
“Reporting for duty,” indeed. One more job to do. No rest until it is done. Miles to go before he sleeps.
JOHN KERRY: UNSTOPPABLE