An August 14-17 poll of Ohio voters by Strategic Vision shows Bush/Cheney leading Kerry/Edwards by 49%-46%. But the trend since July 17-19th indicates that undecided voters declined from 8 to 5% and Kerry/Edwards increased from 44% to their current 46%
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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July 11: If Biden “Steps Aside” and Harris Steps Up, There Should Be No Falloff in Support
At New York I discussed and tried to resolve one source of anxiety about a potential alternative ticket:
One very central dynamic in the recent saga of Democratic anxiety over Joe Biden’s chances against Donald Trump, given the weaknesses he displayed in his first 2024 debate, has been the role of his understudy, Vice-President Kamala Harris. My colleague Gabriel Debenedetti explained the problem nearly two years ago as the “Kamala Harris conundrum”:
“Top party donors have privately worried to close Obama allies that they’re skeptical of Harris’s prospects as a presidential candidate, citing the implosion of her 2020 campaign and her struggles as VP. Jockeying from other potential competitors, like frenemy Gavin Newsom, suggests that few would defer to her if Biden retired. Yet Harris’s strength among the party’s most influential voters nonetheless puts her in clear pole position.”
The perception that Harris is too unpopular to pick up the party banner if Biden dropped it, but too well-positioned to be pushed aside without huge collateral damage, was a major part of the mindset of political observers when evaluating Democratic options after the debate. But now fresher evidence of Harris’s public standing shows she’s just as viable as many of the candidates floated in fantasy scenarios about an “open convention,” “mini-primary,” or smoke-filled room that would sweep away both parts of the Biden-Harris ticket.
For a good while now, Harris’s job-approval numbers have been converging with Biden’s after trailing them initially. These indicate dismal popularity among voters generally, but not in a way that makes her an unacceptable replacement candidate should she be pressed into service in an emergency. As of now, her job-approval ratio in the FiveThirtyEight averages is 37.1 percent approve to 51.2 percent disapprove. Biden’s is 37.4 percent approve to 56.8 percent disapprove. In the favorability ratios tracked by RealClearPolitics, Harris is at 38.3 favorable to 54.6 percent unfavorable, while Biden is at 39.4 percent favorable to 56.9 percent unfavorable. There’s just not a great deal of difference other than slightly lower disapproval/unfavorable numbers for the veep.
On the crucial measurement of viability as a general-election candidate against Trump, there wasn’t much credible polling prior to the post-debate crisis. An Emerson survey in February 2024 showed Harris trailing Trump by 3 percent (43 percent to 46 percent), which was a better showing than Gavin Newsom (down ten points, 36 percent to 46 percent) or Gretchen Whitmer (down 12 points, 33 percent to 45 percent).
After the debate, though, there was a sudden cascade of polling matching Democratic alternatives against Trump, and while Harris’s strength varied, she consistently did as well as or better than the fantasy alternatives. The first cookie on the plate was a one-day June 28 survey from Data for Progress, which showed virtually indistinguishable polling against Trump by Biden, Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer. All of them trailed Trump by 2 to 3 percent among likely voters.
Then two national polls released on July 2 showed Harris doing better than other feasible Biden alternatives. Reuters/Ipsos (which showed Biden and Trump tied) had Harris within a point of Trump, while Newsom trailed by three points, Andy Beshear by four, Whitmer by five, and Pritzker by six points. Similarly, CNN showed Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing him by five points.
Emerson came back with a new poll on July 9 that wasn’t as sunny as some for Democrats generally (every tested name trailed Trump, with Biden down by three points). But again, Harris (down by six points) did better than Newsom (down eight points); Buttigieg and Whitmer (down ten points); and Shapiro (down 12 points).
There’s been some talk that Harris might help Democrats with base constituencies that are sour about Biden. There’s not much publicly available evidence testing that hypothesis, though the crosstabs in the latest CNN poll do show Harris doing modestly better than Biden among people of color, voters under the age of 35, and women.
The bottom line is that one element of the “Kamala Harris conundrum” needs to be reconsidered. There should be no real drop-off in support if Biden (against current expectations) steps aside in favor of his vice-president (the only really feasible “replacement” scenario at this point). She probably has a higher ceiling of support than Biden as well, but in any event, she would have a fresh opportunity to make a strong first or second impression on many Americans who otherwise know little about her.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4436481,00.html
“Democrats who say they are concerned with how the world views the nation have formed a group to run television ads and campaign against Bush. Advisers to the group, Safer Together 04, include former Clinton national security adviser Anthony Lake.
The group will run a TV ad starting Friday initially on cable channels in Washington, D.C., before expanding to battleground states next week. The ad, to air during the Olympics, features a lifelong Republican who says he won’t vote for Bush again. It counters an Olympics-themed ad Bush is running”
Its obviously beginning to happen. People are banding together is cells and are doing cooperative things to make this system work.
The scientists have also banded and are asking for a meeting with both Bush and Kerry. Kerry says he is ready. Bush’ team is yet to comment.
This is the best approach towards making things happen for November. Now, each cell and target a different message and a different sector of the electorate and yet, each cell’s message will cross fertilise because each segment of the electorate has multiple interests.
If this trend picks up momentum and is joined by the efforts from the 527s and the DEMs and the Kerry campaign, then the coming months will be full of great things. You can also bet that things will get so nasty that we might have to turn off the TV when the kids are around. Lies will flow like a stream after a torrent of rain and it will all add to the excitement.
In truth and in fact, if the cell concept of the Kerry supporters gets a roller coaster effect, then the republicans will have to rally their troopers quickly and get a response in place… and it just might be late.
I still think that the process must continue and that the rank and file still need to ensure that they chat a bit with the neighbours and the aunts and uncles and make sure that everyone gets a ride to a booth… there is must that can be done.. and I am sure that the rank and file will get even busier in the coming weeks.
I am enjoying the fact that there are a number of small groups (cells) who are carrying the message and refuting the Bush claims.
Cheers
heroditus, I wonder that, too. Another poll in Ohio has Kerry up 2 among likely voters, just like Gallup.
heroditus, I wonder that, too. Another poll in Ohio has Kerry up 2 among likely voters, just like Gallup.
Economist weekly poll out (Aug 16-18):
Kerry over Bush 48-41 in 3-way race.
See:
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovG.pdf
Also, Bush has broken another barrier, down to 39% approval. If that holds, he’s sunk.
I would appreciate it if someone would discuss the credibility (or lack of it) of Strategic Vision polls. This is an out and out Republican outfit which has started deluging the world with its polls in the past month or so. It seems to me quite likely that it is just another arm of the Bush re-election campaign which has been assigned the task of making it look like he is not sinking like a rock. It bothers me that so many blogs seem to give it credibility. On Ohio, for example there are a number of other polls just out which show Kerry with a lead – in the case of Gallup a 10 point lead among registered voters. I think people should consider whether or not they want to give Strategic Vision any credibility and any publicity. I think it is a fraud.