In all the talk about whether Joe Biden should “step aside,” there hasn’t been enough discussion of the rationale he should present if he does so. So I offered one at New York:
The Democratic Party’s semi-public bickering over what to do with Joe Biden needs to come to an end very soon, lest it turn into a horrific party-rending conflict or a de facto surrender to Donald Trump. While he can technically be pushed out of the nomination, it would be nightmarishly difficult to do so given his virtually unopposed performance in the primaries and the lack of precedent for anything like a forced defenestration of a sitting president. It would also express disloyalty to a brave and dedicated leader. But Biden has already lost the united, confident party he needed to make a comeback. He’s trailing in the polls right now. And even more importantly, his own conduct and fitness for office will command center stage for the rest of the general-election campaign, which is precisely what he cannot afford given his poor job-approval ratings and the sour mood of the electorate.
So Joe needs to go of his own accord, and it needs to happen quickly before Republican and Biden-loyalist claims of a “coup” become all too credible. But it’s obviously a humiliating exercise. So if Biden comes to realize the futility of going forward, what can this proud and stubborn man say that will make him something other than an object of derision or pity?
I have a simple answer: He can tell the truth.
The truth is that Biden’s firm commitment to the pursuit of a second term, despite his advanced age and increased frailty, hardened into inflexible determination when Trump made his own decision to launch an initially unlikely comeback. When Biden took office, Trump was a disgraced insurrectionist whose very defenders in his second impeachment trial mostly denounced his conduct, even as they urged acquittal on technical grounds. The 46th president was in a position to serve one distinguished “transitional” term and retire with a wary eye on his fellow retiree festering in anger and self-righteousness in Mar-a-Lago. But as Trump slowly recovered and eventually reemerged as a more dominant figure than ever in a MAGA-fied Republican Party, Biden became convinced that as the only politician ever to defeat Donald Trump, he had the responsibility to do it again and the ability to remind voters why they rejected the 45th president in 2020.
As this strange election year ripened, Biden had a perfectly plausible strategy for victory based on keeping a steady public focus on Trump’s lawless conduct (including actual crimes), his erratic record, and extremist intentions for a perilous second term. The polls were close and Biden wasn’t very popular, but these surveys also showed a durable majority of the electorate that really didn’t want to return Trump to power, particularly as economic conditions improved and the consequences of Trump’s Supreme Court appointments grew more shockingly apparent each day.
Then came the June 27 debate, and suddenly Biden lost the ability to make the election about Trump. He needs to look into a camera and say just that, and conclude that just as the threat posed by Trump motivated him to run for a second term, the threat posed by Trump now requires that he withdraw so that a successor can make the case he can’t make as he’s become the object of endless speculation about his age and cognitive abilities. Biden does not need to resign the presidency, since his grounds for withdrawing his candidacy are about perceptions and politics rather than any underlying incapacity. Biden would be withdrawing as a weakened candidate, not as a failed president.
For this withdrawal to represent a stabilizing event for his administration and his party, it’s critical that Biden not equivocate or complain, and that he show his mastery of the situation by clearly passing the torch to the vice-president he chose four years ago. For all the talk of an “open convention” being exciting (for pundits) and energizing (for the winner), the last thing Democrats need right now is uncertainty. No matter what the polls show and how badly his old friends want him to succeed, it’s the prospect of 100 days of terror every time Biden makes unscripted remarks that is feeding both elite and rank-and-file sentiment that a change at the top of the ticket is necessary. The fear and confusion needs to end now, and Biden effectively made his choice of a successor when he made Kamala Harris his governing partner. The president needs to reassert his agency now, not look like he is abandoning his party and his country to the winds of fate.
A straightforward and honest admission of why Biden 2024 is coming to an end could go a very long way toward enabling Harris and other Democrats to shift the nation’s gaze back to the ranting old man whose acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention showed that he has not mellowed or moderated at all. Of course Biden wants to solidify and extend his legacy over the next four years. But right now, the clear and present danger is that it will be extinguished altogether. He alone can address that threat, not as a candidate, but as a president and a patriot who recognizes his duty.
One point to shoehorn into your point, Mike: there is now a growing base of suburban support for Dems in Texas. I know there’s anecdotal evidence in the other big southern states to agree with that. And I’m doubtful of there being much to corroborate this in the smaller ones.
That’s one of the aspects I wanted to look at beyond my own home state of Texas.
You’re definitely right about the WD40-class of Dems being a diminishing breed in many areas. I was really surprised, though, to see how less of a problem it was in states like MS and AL in particular compared to TX. In looking at the Texas vote by precinct, I think the reality is more accurately stated as the pool of Dem support is diminishing as the rural areas get older. There are still similar pockets of support that exist in these areas for other candidates higher than State Rep. But the vote share in Dem areas has generally decreased as other areas around them have gotten more and more Republican. So I think that several of these seats – although definitely fewer – may be survived by other Dems. But they’ll have GOP State Senators and GOP Members of Congress.
Then again, there are some pretty creative tools for redistricting available these days 😉
I can comment on Greg’s map at least in so far as Texas is concerned. Of those State House of Representative Districts are concerned, the Democratic districts fall into one of three categories: 1) minority held districts; 2) urban districts; and 3) rural Democratic districts.
Category one and two are growing. Category three is a vanishing species. They’re called WD-40’s om Texas — white Democrats over 40. People like Jim McReynolds (Lufkin), Chuck Hopson) Jacksonville), and Stephen Frost (Atlanta, though not over 40), etc. In all likelihood, these guys (with the possible exception of Hopson) can hold their seats until they retire. But then, the Republicans will take those seats.
But all the growth in Texas in Democratic State House seats is coming in urban areas, and to a lesser degree in minority districts. And if the Republicans control the redistricting process in Texas again in 2011, even these white rural Democrats will find themselves with tougher fights than they presently have.
Interesting timing of your post, Ed. I just wrapped up a minor mapping project that shows that Democratic candidates for State Rep. in the south aren’t quite as dead as conventional wisdom leads us to believe. It’s a pretty remarkable view of the remaining strength the party has in the south after 30 or so years of conservative activists driving religious voters over to the GOP.
http://www.gregsopinion.com/archives/009358.html
But then again, I’m sure this is nothing new to you 😉
Blanche should do fine unless there’s some broader tilt in public opinion heading into 2010.