One very central dynamic in the recent saga of Democratic anxiety over Joe Biden’s chances against Donald Trump, given the weaknesses he displayed in his first 2024 debate, has been the role of his understudy, Vice-President Kamala Harris. My colleague Gabriel Debenedetti explained the problem nearly two years ago as the “Kamala Harris conundrum”:
“Top party donors have privately worried to close Obama allies that they’re skeptical of Harris’s prospects as a presidential candidate, citing the implosion of her 2020 campaign and her struggles as VP. Jockeying from other potential competitors, like frenemy Gavin Newsom, suggests that few would defer to her if Biden retired. Yet Harris’s strength among the party’s most influential voters nonetheless puts her in clear pole position.”
The perception that Harris is too unpopular to pick up the party banner if Biden dropped it, but too well-positioned to be pushed aside without huge collateral damage, was a major part of the mindset of political observers when evaluating Democratic options after the debate. But now fresher evidence of Harris’s public standing shows she’s just as viable as many of the candidates floated in fantasy scenarios about an “open convention,” “mini-primary,” or smoke-filled room that would sweep away both parts of the Biden-Harris ticket.
For a good while now, Harris’s job-approval numbers have been converging with Biden’s after trailing them initially. These indicate dismal popularity among voters generally, but not in a way that makes her an unacceptable replacement candidate should she be pressed into service in an emergency. As of now, her job-approval ratio in the FiveThirtyEight averages is 37.1 percent approve to 51.2 percent disapprove. Biden’s is 37.4 percent approve to 56.8 percent disapprove. In the favorability ratios tracked by RealClearPolitics, Harris is at 38.3 favorable to 54.6 percent unfavorable, while Biden is at 39.4 percent favorable to 56.9 percent unfavorable. There’s just not a great deal of difference other than slightly lower disapproval/unfavorable numbers for the veep.
On the crucial measurement of viability as a general-election candidate against Trump, there wasn’t much credible polling prior to the post-debate crisis. An Emerson survey in February 2024 showed Harris trailing Trump by 3 percent (43 percent to 46 percent), which was a better showing than Gavin Newsom (down ten points, 36 percent to 46 percent) or Gretchen Whitmer (down 12 points, 33 percent to 45 percent).
After the debate, though, there was a sudden cascade of polling matching Democratic alternatives against Trump, and while Harris’s strength varied, she consistently did as well as or better than the fantasy alternatives. The first cookie on the plate was a one-day June 28 survey from Data for Progress, which showed virtually indistinguishable polling against Trump by Biden, Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer. All of them trailed Trump by 2 to 3 percent among likely voters.
Then two national polls released on July 2 showed Harris doing better than other feasible Biden alternatives. Reuters/Ipsos (which showed Biden and Trump tied) had Harris within a point of Trump, while Newsom trailed by three points, Andy Beshear by four, Whitmer by five, and Pritzker by six points. Similarly, CNN showed Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing him by five points.
Emerson came back with a new poll on July 9 that wasn’t as sunny as some for Democrats generally (every tested name trailed Trump, with Biden down by three points). But again, Harris (down by six points) did better than Newsom (down eight points); Buttigieg and Whitmer (down ten points); and Shapiro (down 12 points).
There’s been some talk that Harris might help Democrats with base constituencies that are sour about Biden. There’s not much publicly available evidence testing that hypothesis, though the crosstabs in the latest CNN poll do show Harris doing modestly better than Biden among people of color, voters under the age of 35, and women.
The bottom line is that one element of the “Kamala Harris conundrum” needs to be reconsidered. There should be no real drop-off in support if Biden (against current expectations) steps aside in favor of his vice-president (the only really feasible “replacement” scenario at this point). She probably has a higher ceiling of support than Biden as well, but in any event, she would have a fresh opportunity to make a strong first or second impression on many Americans who otherwise know little about her.
I think Sea Change is what you are thinking however Seed Change might be a good idea as well.
The way to change things in this country is through voting, so if you want to elect Obama/Biden the thing to do is make sure all voters really know what they will do if elected and then be certain these people vote and their votes are counted correctly.
I’m tired of McCain’s Vietnam sychobabble, we all have memories about the 1960s and Vietnam.
Hate? Hate is SO yesterday.
One hundred years from now they’ll teach University courses about the 2008 Presidential Election. What is happening now is a seed change, nothing short of a revolution.
Quietly, in basements and dens around America an army of MILLIONS of Bloggers and fellow travellers is no longer responding to the media – considering what the media puts in front of us – considering the facts they have fed us on which we had to base out thoughts – what has happened this year FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WORLD HISTORY is that the PEOPLE have actually turned the tables and WE THE PEOPLE, not the media, CONTROL the agenda and the information available to the people. The media have been reduced to following our lead; our findings of facts and the Blogsphere’s exposure of Sarah Palin’s appalling background is a prime example.
The REVOLUTION is HERE, we are not only fighting it we are WINNING it – not with guns and rocks and blood – but with facts and communication and an Internet with a million points of light, operating at the speed of light – each point of which can take facts off the net and add to them.
For the first time in my adult life – America has a REAL chance at change. God Bless America!
At this rate, nothing will change the cycle in Obama’s favor. The campaign has been silenced into weakness, and the media is in love with Palin. No fundraising number is going to take attention away from hate speak.
I think Sen. Obama will sign on as a sponsor to the gang of ten energy bill. This will allow him to box in McCain on oil drilling, since the bill supports limited additional drilling but also a tax increase for oil companies. This would seriously limit the Republican arguments about oil drilling, but McCain can’t support the tax increase.
Sponsoring this bill would also show how Obama is acting in a bipartisan fashion. I wouldn’t be suprised if he announces support for this compromise as soon as tomorrow.
Why in god’s name would Obama want Powell’s endorsement? Is that supposed to be a good thing? The only things a Powell endorsement would signal is that (1) Obama is part of the Washington establishment and (2) when its to his benefit, he thinks the judgement of people who supported the invasion of Iraq is just peachy.
I would think a Powell endorsement would be a less than happy development.