One very central dynamic in the recent saga of Democratic anxiety over Joe Biden’s chances against Donald Trump, given the weaknesses he displayed in his first 2024 debate, has been the role of his understudy, Vice-President Kamala Harris. My colleague Gabriel Debenedetti explained the problem nearly two years ago as the “Kamala Harris conundrum”:
“Top party donors have privately worried to close Obama allies that they’re skeptical of Harris’s prospects as a presidential candidate, citing the implosion of her 2020 campaign and her struggles as VP. Jockeying from other potential competitors, like frenemy Gavin Newsom, suggests that few would defer to her if Biden retired. Yet Harris’s strength among the party’s most influential voters nonetheless puts her in clear pole position.”
The perception that Harris is too unpopular to pick up the party banner if Biden dropped it, but too well-positioned to be pushed aside without huge collateral damage, was a major part of the mindset of political observers when evaluating Democratic options after the debate. But now fresher evidence of Harris’s public standing shows she’s just as viable as many of the candidates floated in fantasy scenarios about an “open convention,” “mini-primary,” or smoke-filled room that would sweep away both parts of the Biden-Harris ticket.
For a good while now, Harris’s job-approval numbers have been converging with Biden’s after trailing them initially. These indicate dismal popularity among voters generally, but not in a way that makes her an unacceptable replacement candidate should she be pressed into service in an emergency. As of now, her job-approval ratio in the FiveThirtyEight averages is 37.1 percent approve to 51.2 percent disapprove. Biden’s is 37.4 percent approve to 56.8 percent disapprove. In the favorability ratios tracked by RealClearPolitics, Harris is at 38.3 favorable to 54.6 percent unfavorable, while Biden is at 39.4 percent favorable to 56.9 percent unfavorable. There’s just not a great deal of difference other than slightly lower disapproval/unfavorable numbers for the veep.
On the crucial measurement of viability as a general-election candidate against Trump, there wasn’t much credible polling prior to the post-debate crisis. An Emerson survey in February 2024 showed Harris trailing Trump by 3 percent (43 percent to 46 percent), which was a better showing than Gavin Newsom (down ten points, 36 percent to 46 percent) or Gretchen Whitmer (down 12 points, 33 percent to 45 percent).
After the debate, though, there was a sudden cascade of polling matching Democratic alternatives against Trump, and while Harris’s strength varied, she consistently did as well as or better than the fantasy alternatives. The first cookie on the plate was a one-day June 28 survey from Data for Progress, which showed virtually indistinguishable polling against Trump by Biden, Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer. All of them trailed Trump by 2 to 3 percent among likely voters.
Then two national polls released on July 2 showed Harris doing better than other feasible Biden alternatives. Reuters/Ipsos (which showed Biden and Trump tied) had Harris within a point of Trump, while Newsom trailed by three points, Andy Beshear by four, Whitmer by five, and Pritzker by six points. Similarly, CNN showed Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer trailing him by five points.
Emerson came back with a new poll on July 9 that wasn’t as sunny as some for Democrats generally (every tested name trailed Trump, with Biden down by three points). But again, Harris (down by six points) did better than Newsom (down eight points); Buttigieg and Whitmer (down ten points); and Shapiro (down 12 points).
There’s been some talk that Harris might help Democrats with base constituencies that are sour about Biden. There’s not much publicly available evidence testing that hypothesis, though the crosstabs in the latest CNN poll do show Harris doing modestly better than Biden among people of color, voters under the age of 35, and women.
The bottom line is that one element of the “Kamala Harris conundrum” needs to be reconsidered. There should be no real drop-off in support if Biden (against current expectations) steps aside in favor of his vice-president (the only really feasible “replacement” scenario at this point). She probably has a higher ceiling of support than Biden as well, but in any event, she would have a fresh opportunity to make a strong first or second impression on many Americans who otherwise know little about her.
So basically, someone giving a great speech in front of roaring crowds, despite being nothing but a former PTA member, who left before all of her kids went through school, mayor of a small town, (with the aid of a city administrator which no other mayor ever needed) and holder of one of the weakest gubernatorial offices in the nation, in alleged “command” of one of the smallest National Guard Contingencies in the country equates with being qualified to be president of the United States.
Contrary wise, someone giving a great speech in front of roaring crowds, having once gone to Harvard Law School, been editor of the Review, a community organizer, an Illinois State Senator, a published author, and United States Senator, and actually being elected, (instead of appointed) to the ticket, is all style and no substance.
I guess that would be the line you would have to tow, if you were a Jesus freak that screamed, out of both of your faces, about the sin of pre-marital sex, and the folly of women working out of the home while their kids are off having sex… until a gun-toting MILF shows up and gives a mean spirited, elitist speech at your convention. Then, and only then, is the Christian value of forgiveness actually exercised, and the rhetoric of “Jesus wants you to stay at home, and teach your teens the wonders of celibacy” overthrown.
I guess that would be the line to tow, if you are more concerned about defining a red-blooded American as someone who kills prisoners, but forbids abortion, than you are about defending decisions to try to ban books, address and bid good luck to the convention of a political party that holds Alaska’s succession from the United States as a possibility, and use the Governor’s mansion as a place to settle family disputes.
In experience vs. inexperience, there is no argument. In style vs. substance, there is no argument. In humble beginnings and American values, there is no argument. Barack Obama clearly wins in all three. But if I were to give the benefit of the absolute doubt, the best I, (and anyone that is more worried about logic than they are Bible thumping and ass kicking) can say is that Palin and Obama have both have sufficient experience, substance, and American values imbued into their stories.
Or you can choose to deny that either of them has any of that. But you can be nothing but a stupefying hypocrite to conclude that PTA meetings, small town elections and official titles in the National Guard is any more impressive than law school, book writing, and stints in two legislatures.
But that would require an intellectual honesty that Republicans in general, and Sarah Palin in particular do not, or will not possess.
You said, “The reaction from the Democratic base hasn’t gotten as much airtime (it is the GOP convention, after all), but I’m going to wager it is just as strong.”
The media hasn’t given Democratic critiques any airtime (although they gave Republicans double in the D convention), see: Media Mattes report:http://mediamatters.org/items/200809030022