Are there any lessons for U.S. Democrats in the experience of Europe’s left-center political parties? To help address this question, read Justus Seuferle’s “How the Right Hijacked the Working Class for Culture Wars: The alliance between reactionary forces and the working class is not built on shared economic interests but on a manufactured sense of cultural identity” at Social Europe. As Seuferle writes, “Unlike the post-war era’s material politics—marked by fair wages, strong social safety nets, and democratic expansion—the culturalisation of politics does not lead to tangible material change….This transformation recasts political issues as cultural ones, not only diverting attention from material concerns like wages and social security, but also reshaping fundamentally economic matters into cultural narratives. The latest casualty of this shift is the worker—once defined by economic conditions, now reimagined as a cultural identity….Two competing ideas about the worker dominate contemporary discourse. The first—predominantly found in the United States—is cultural; the second, once prevalent in Europe, is material. The cultural definition, often reflected in self-identification surveys, hinges on the colour of one’s collar. It distinguishes between blue-collar and white-collar workers—those who work with their hands versus those in bureaucratic or intellectual roles. Under this framework, even a small business owner can be considered a worker. The only criterion is a sense of cultural belonging tied to one’s type of work….The misconception that the political right represents the working class stems from the confusion caused by the cultural definition. When identity becomes the central axis of political classification, the struggle for economic justice is reduced to a battle for recognition. The fact that the term “worker” originally denoted a structurally disadvantaged position is now lost in the shallow glow of tribal belonging….In reality, what would materially benefit workers are strong unions, high wages, robust labour protections, good public infrastructure, and universal unemployment insurance to give workers the ability to refuse exploitative jobs—forcing employers to raise wages. Instead, Vance offers only the hollow currency of recognition….The outcome is a hollow anti-elitism, reduced to performative opposition, with no substantive policies to improve workers’ lives.”

In “Trump’s Historically Bad First Month of Polls Should Terrify Republicans,” Bill Scher writes at The Washington Monthly: “President Donald Trump’s net job approval average, in both the Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight averages, has slid about 7 points over the first month of his second term, leaving his approval rating just barely above his disapproval….This is a historically bad beginning for a presidency. The only worse example is Donald Trump’s first presidency….Who cares about poll numbers anymore, you might ask. Congressional Republicans should. They are on the ballot next year, and the GOP could easily lose control of the House. If Trump does not defy political gravity, he could drag them down, as he did in his first term….Presidential polling honeymoons always end, but rarely so fast….Trump’s numbers are sinking because he has swiftly implemented radical policies many people do not want. According to the Washington Post-Ipsos poll, the public opposes mass civil service firings, shutdowns of federal agencies, including the foreign aid conduit USAID, banning transgender people from military service, and scrapping diversity programs. Only 34 percent of respondents approved of Elon Musk’s involvement in the administration, while 57 percent believe Trump has “gone beyond his authority as president.”….Trump’s hold on Republican officeholders remains strong. I doubt many of them support Trump’s echoing of Russian narratives about Ukraine or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan for annual 8-percent cuts in the military budget over the next five years. But they are afraid to say as much and risk the president’s wrath and a primary challenge….Yet a continuing presidential poll slide with a midterm election on the horizon could, and should, focus the mind not just on the president’s temperament but the voters. Trump could become a dead weight to the GOP. Congressional Republicans in swing districts and those not necessarily seen as vulnerable today should think about what has been unthinkable: creating some distance between themselves and Trump.”

From “Americans voted for Trump, but don’t support his agenda: Our look at nearly 300 poll questions finds Trump is more popular than Trumpism” by G. Elliot Morris at 538/abcnews: “Looking at all the polls that have been released since Trump took office, we find that while Americans express support for some of Trump’s immigration policy and broad government reform in principle, they oppose most of what he has done in his first month as president….I began by combing through every publicly available political poll that has been released since he took office on Jan. 20. Specifically, I was looking for any question that asked respondents if they supported* an action that Trump had taken or promised to take. As of Feb. 25 at 2 p.m. Eastern, this review yielded over 270 questions from 49 different polls. 538 has made the data for this analysis publicly available here ….I found 63 questions asking about Trump’s immigration policies, ranging from such topics as the deportation of undocumented immigrants who have been accused of committing violent crimes (supported by 89 percent of voters, according to an Ipsos/Washington Post poll conducted Feb. 13-18) to the removal of undocumented immigrants who arrived to the U.S. as children (44 percentage points underwater, 70-26 percent, according to the same poll) to whether immigrants removed from the country should be held in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, while they await transfer to their home countries (average support of just 37 percent across three polls)….Generally the broadest policies possible, such as “deporting all immigrants” and “sending the military to the border to help with immigration,” score rather well with the public (52 percent approve and 36 percent disapprove of using military force at the U.S.-Mexico border in the average poll)….But as pollsters get more specific, net approval of those policies tends to fall and go underwater. The AP found, for example, that deporting all undocumented immigrants “even if they will be separated from their children who are citizens” has just 28 percent of Americans in support and 55 percent in opposition. And arresting immigrants while they are at church or school is opposed by more than half of Americans. Excluding questions that ask about the military or Trump’s declared state of emergency on the southern border, the public opposed Trump’s immigration policies by about 1 point on average….Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants (a power he does not have) is underwater by 12 points on average, with 39 percent of adults approving and 50 percent disapproving of the order.”

Morris adds further, “According to an AP-NORC poll conducted shortly before Trump took office, 67 percent of adults think the U.S. government spends too little on Social Security; 61 percent say too little on Medicare; 65 percent too little on education; 62 percent too little on assistance to the poor; and 55 percent too little on Medicaid. Yet these are the programs Republicans are targeting for cutting in order to offset reduced revenues from lower taxes on corporations and richer Americans….Trump’s allies and conservative commentators have run into a classic finding in political science: Voters are “symbolically conservative” but “operationally liberal.” That is, they support liberal social programs and government spending at higher rates than they identify as liberals; to put it in inverse terms, people are more likely to call themselves conservative than they are to support the average conservative policy. It is also generally easier to sell people on vague language and abstract goals (“Reduce the size of government! Make programs more efficient!”) than it is to sell them on the steps it would take to accomplish them (“Fire a ton of people! Make benefits harder to get!”)….A related divide is how people feel toward Trump the man versus how they feel toward his agenda. According to 538’s average of presidential job approval polls, 48.1 percent of adults currently approve of Trump and 47.4 percent disapprove. However, in our new dataset of Trump issue polls, average support for his agenda is 7 points underwater, with just 38 percent supporting his policies and executive orders and 46 percent opposing them….Our new data sheds light on the question of whether the American people voted for everything they’re getting under Trump or whether they supported him for other reasons. Given his agenda is currently 11 points lower than the vote share he won in the 2024 presidential election (49.8 percent), the most likely answer is that this isn’t what Americans had in mind when they voted for him.”