Please excuse the lack of posts the last couple of days, but I’ve been dealing with a family medical emergency down in Georgia, and juggling various Day Job responsibilities. But my immersion in America, as opposed to Washington, in recent days predisposed me to treat George W. Bush’s press conference remarks on Social Security last night with a certain sense of slack-jawed astonishment. He said what? Tell me if I’m missing something, but having failed for months to sell the country on a free-lunch vision of a privatized pension system in which private accounts would magically guarantee retirement security and pay for itself, Bush suddenly started selling broccoli instead of dessert. He’s now out there peddling benefit cuts for middle and upper income retirees, as though they represent some sort of inherent virtue.Now, you can make a progressive case for what the wonks call “progressive indexing,” but not in isolation from every other issue involving Social Security, tax policy, budget policy, and retirement security generally. Yet that’s how Bush is trying to sell this glass of castor oil. It is very, very unlikely to attact any Democratic support, and is very, very likely to produce a big revolt among conservative Republicans, especially in the House, who are still addicted to the free lunch mirage. I don’t know whether this gambit is just part of an exit strategy where Bush is laying down “responsible” markers for the future (given his chronic inability to admit defeat), or some sort of tactic designed to peel off a few Democrats who have been complaining about the administration’s unwillingness to embrace any policy that would improve rather than weaken Social Security’s solvency. But still, it’s a strange move, and out here in America, it seems to be playing about as well as the Cookie Monster’s recent emergence as an advocate for healthy food.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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March 6: Trump Job Approval Again Underwater, Where It Belongs
As an inveterate poll-watcher, I have been waiting for the moment when Donald Trump’s job approval numbers went underwater, his accustomed position for nearly all of his presidential career. It arrived around the time he made his speech to Congress, as I noted at New York:
Even as he was delivering the most partisan address to Congress maybe ever, Donald Trump’s public support seemed to be regularly eroding. An updated FiveThirtyEight average of Trump’s approval ratings on March 4 (released just as news broke that ABC was shutting down the revered data site) showed him going underwater for the first time since reoccupying the White House, with 47.6 percent approval and 47.9 percent disapproval. That puts Trump back in the same territory of public opinion he occupied during his first term as president, where (per Gallup) he never achieved more than 50 percent job approval, and averaged a mere 41 percent.
Perhaps Trump will get lucky and conditions in the country will improve enough to validate his agenda, but it’s more likely that the same sour public climate that overwhelmed Joe Biden will now afflict his predecessor and successor.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey that pushed Trump’s numbers into negative territory showed a mood very different from the 47th president’s boasts about a new “golden age” for our country:
“Thirty-four percent of Americans say that the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 49% who say it is off on the wrong track. When it comes to several specific issues, Americans are more likely to say things are off on the wrong track than going in the right direction: cost of living (22% right direction / 60% wrong track), the national economy (31% right direction / 51% wrong track), national politics (33% right direction / 50% wrong track), American foreign policy (33% right direction / 49% wrong track), and employment and jobs (33% right direction / 47% wrong track).”
So all the hype about Trump being a popular president who was in the midst of engineering a major realignment of the American electorate is already looking more than a bit hollow. Trump has a solid Republican base of support and a solid Democratic opposition, with independents currently leaning towards the Democratic Party on most issues. Perhaps Trump’s agenda will gain momentum and support, but since he’s not trying to reach out beyond his party’s base at all, he’s going to need a lift from Americans who only voted for him in 2024 as the lesser of evils and may not vote in the 2026 midterms at all.
At present Trump has lost whatever presidential “honeymoon” he initially enjoyed after his return to the White House, and needs to find new converts to return to genuine popularity. He’s not off to a great start.