The reaction among Democrats to Donald Trump’s return to power has been significantly more subdued than what we saw in 2016 after the mogul’s first shocking electoral win. The old-school “resistance” is dead, and it’s not clear what will replace it. But Democratic elected officials are developing new strategies for dealing with the new realities in Washington. Here are five distinct approaches that have emerged, even before Trump’s second administration has begun.
Some Democrats are so thoroughly impressed by the current power of the MAGA movement they are choosing to surrender to it in significant respects. The prime example is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who is now becoming conspicuous in his desire to admit his party’s weaknesses and snuggle up to the new regime. The freshman and one-time ally of Bernie Sanders has been drifting away from the left wing of his party for a good while, particularly via his vocally unconditional backing for Israel during its war in Gaza. But now he’s making news regularly for taking steps in Trump’s direction.
Quite a few Democrats publicly expressed dismay over Joe Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter, but Fetterman distinguished himself by calling for a corresponding pardon for Trump over his hush-money conviction in New York. Similarly, many Democrats have discussed ways to reach out to the voters they have lost to Trump. Fetterman’s approach was to join Trump’s Truth Social platform, which is a fever swamp for the president-elect’s most passionate supporters. Various Democrats are cautiously circling Elon Musk, Trump’s new best friend and potential slayer of the civil-service system and the New Deal–Great Society legacy of federal programs. But Fetterman seems to want to become Musk’s buddy, too, exchanging compliments with him in a sort of weird courtship. Fetterman has also gone out of his way to exhibit openness to support for Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees even as nearly every other Senate Democrat takes the tack of forcing Republicans to take a stand on people like Pete Hegseth before weighing in themselves.
It’s probably germane to Fetterman’s conduct that he will be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election year in a state Trump carried on November 5. Or maybe he’s just burnishing his credentials as the maverick who blew up the Senate dress code.
Other Democrats are being much more selectively friendly to Trump, searching for “common ground” on issues where they believe he will be cross-pressured by his wealthy backers and more conventional Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats — including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — tend to come from the progressive wing of the party and have longed chafed at the centrist economic policies advanced by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They’ve talked about strategically encouraging Trump’s “populist” impulses on such issues as credit-card interest and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the new president and his congressional allies to put up or shut up.
So the idea is to push off a discredited Democratic Establishment, at least on economic issues, and either accomplish things for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or prove the hollowness of his “populism.”
Colorado governor Jared Solis has offered a similar strategy of selective cooperation by praising the potential agenda of Trump HHS secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as helpfully “shaking up” the medical and scientific Establishment.
At the other end of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they perceive as a discredited progressive ascendancy in the party, especially on culture-war issues and immigration. The most outspoken of them showed up at last week’s annual meeting of the avowedly nonpartisan No Labels organization, which was otherwise dominated by Republicans seeking to demonstrate a bit of independence from the next administration. These include vocal critics of the 2024 Democratic message like House members Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Ritchie Torres, and Seth Moulton, along with wannabe 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Josh Gottheimer (his Virginia counterpart, Abigail Spanberger, wasn’t at the No Labels confab but is similarly positioned ideologically).
From a strategic point of view, these militant centrists appear to envision a 2028 presidential campaign that will take back the voters Biden won in 2020 and Harris lost this year.
We’re beginning to see the emergence of a faction of Democrats that is willing to cut policy or legislative deals with Team Trump in order to protect some vulnerable constituencies from MAGA wrath. This is particularly visible on the immigration front; some congressional Democrats are talking about cutting a deal to support some of Trump’s agenda in exchange for continued protection from deportation of DREAMers. Politico reports:
“The prize that many Democrats would like to secure is protecting Dreamers — Americans who came with their families to the U.S. at a young age and have since been protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program created by President Barack Obama in 2012.
“Trump himself expressed an openness to ‘do something about the Dreamers’ in a recent ‘Meet the Press’ interview. But he would almost certainly want significant policy concessions in return, including border security measures and changes to asylum law that Democrats have historically resisted.”
On a broader front, the New York Times has found significant support among Democratic governors to selectively cooperate with the new administration’s “mass deportation” plans in exchange for concessions:
“In interviews, 11 Democratic governors, governors-elect and candidates for the office often expressed defiance toward Mr. Trump’s expected immigration crackdown — but were also strikingly willing to highlight areas of potential cooperation.
“Several balanced messages of compassion for struggling migrants with a tough-on-crime tone. They said that they were willing to work with the Trump administration to deport people who had been convicted of serious crimes and that they wanted stricter border control, even as they vowed to defend migrant families and those fleeing violence in their home countries, as well as businesses that rely on immigrant labor.”
While the Democrats planning strategic cooperation with Trump are getting a lot of attention, it’s clear the bulk of elected officials and activists are more quietly waiting for the initial fallout from the new regime to develop while planning ahead for a Democratic comeback. This is particularly true among the House Democratic leadership, which hopes to exploit the extremely narrow Republican majority in the chamber (which will be exacerbated by vacancies for several months until Trump appointees can be replaced in special elections) on must-pass House votes going forward, while looking ahead with a plan to aggressively contest marginal Republican-held seats in the 2026 midterms. Historical precedents indicate very high odds that Democrats can flip the House in 2026, bringing a relatively quick end to any Republican legislative steamrolling on Trump’s behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.
In future postings, especially as the election approaches, can you include ALWAYS the previous poll the corresponds with the “current” finding for say “Florida LVs” so we’ll know whether the current results represent a gain or a loss?
This Osama tape and its timing are very interesting, and could determine the outcome of the election. Obviously, the very fact that they are watching the elections and have something to say on the eve of the elections will likely (whether it “SHOULD” or not is a different question) help Bush. People thinking about Bin Laden and conditioned to the reflexive response of saying that Bush is good in the ‘war on terror’ will tend to be more likely to vote Bush. This is the first video that Bin Laden has released in 2 years, and it comes less than one week before the election and focuses on Bush. Even though there was apparently a hoax report of threats of retaliatory attacks if Bush wins, ANY tape from OBL focusing on Bush predictably helps Bush. Bin Laden obviously DOES have a clue — the 9-11 attacks reflected a sophisticated understanding of the details of the US system. He could not but know that his tape may (decisively) help Bush. Which should make voters think — WHY does Bin Laden do something likely to help, possibly decisively, Bush’s election at the polls. The unsavoriness of the implications go beyond what most “reasonable” people are willling to consider — but it DOESN’T require any kind of elaborate conspiracy thinking either. Al Qaeda clearly sees the predictable results of their tape as being to their advantage. Focusing on Iraq rather than Al Qaeda has been a boon to Al Qaeda in TWO ways. Now, Al Qaeda is acting to (in all likelihood) insure a continuation of this status quo, with the common pattern of reactionaries and terrorists benefitting from one another (as in Israel). In Israel, it was pointed out to terrorists that their attacks during an election season would tend to elect Netanyahu and they said they were AOK with that. But here OBL has GONE OUT OF HIS WAY to issue a statement that could only help Bush. Then there’s Krauthammer claiming that Bin Laden wants a Kerry victory, as the earlier Drudge report suggested. This is VERY BIG in the election folks. The milking of 9-11 goes on. It is “Christmas for Tories” and Santa has returned with more goodies.
An analysis of the battleground polls from 2000, shows that none of the top 5 predicted battlegrounds finished in the top 5 closest contested states.
http://www.campaigndesk.org/archives/001058.asp
Another point to consider when doing today’s battleground analysis.
Sooooo. An RV poll is an opinon poll of registered voters and a LV poll is an opinion about an opinion poll of registered voters. Can I just sleep till November 2?
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts or information about the prospect of Bush winning the popular vote because he is slightly ahead in the tracking polls and losing the electoral college because his national numbers are a reflection of increased support in places like Mississippi, Texas Alabama, etc. (the bigoted states of America) but hopefully decreased support in the battleground states.
I would still like you to take on the task of talking about the “unlikely voter.”
http://www.corante.com/mooreslore/archives/026771.html
IMHO the election won’t be decided by undecideds “breaking” one way or another. I don’t think they do break one way or another. I think most stay home.
I believe elections are won or lost by whether you can get a large group of “unlikely” voters to the polls, folks who don’t usually go.
No pollster I’ve heard of has done any work to my knowledge in trying to figure out who these “unlikely” voters are, what they think, and what is the likelihood they will actually vote.
You could do it like this:
50% unlikely (don’t vote usually but say they will this time, or have) B — % K – — %
25% likely (don’t vote usually but say they might)
25% likely (usually vote but say they might not)
10% likely ( usually don’t and say they probably won’t, but might)
Without their own proprietary likely voter model, how would a polling company distinguish itself from the competition?