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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

National Tracking Poll Roundup

We’ve discussed how uncorrelated the movements of the tracking polls have tended to be–they rarely seemed to show coherent movement in one direction. But it’s interesting to note that, even with the addition of a new tracking poll (Fox), the movement today was generally all in one direction: Kerry’s. (You can find all the relevant data and links at NowChannel.com.)
Here are today’s results:
Zogby: 47-46 Kerry from a 46-46 tie yesterday
Rasmussen: 47.9-47.1 Bush, from 48.7-46.7 Bush yesterday
WaPo LV: 49-48 Bush, from 50-47 Bush yesterday
WaPo RV: 48-47 Kerry, from 48-46 Bush yesterday
Fox 3way LV: 47-45 Bush, from 50-45 Bush yesterday
Fox 3way RV: 46-46 tie, from 48-46 Bush yesterday
The once exception to that pro-Kerry movement: the TIPP poll which (3way) was 46-44 Bush today, compared to a 46-46 tie yesterday.
Note: Today’s WaPo RV result makes 5 out of 6 days that Kerry has been ahead in their RV sample.
Note: At this stage of the election in 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore by 4 points in the Zogby tracking poll, by 4 points in the ABC/WP tracking poll and by 7 points in the TIPP tracking poll.