Here’s a result from that recent Time/CNN poll that I never got around to flagging but it’s an important one: Bush’s status as “a leader you can trust” as opposed to one about whom “you have some doubts and reservations” continues to decline. For the first time, he’s under 40 percent on this one, with 39 percent saying he’s a leader they can trust, compared to 59 percent who have doubts and reservations (37/61 among independents).
Also dipping below 40 percent for the first time in this poll is the number who say the war against Iraq was “was worth the toll it has taken in American lives and other kinds of costs”. That’s now down to 37 percent, as against 56 percent who say the war hasn’t been worth those costs (35/60 among independents).
TDS Strategy Memos
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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January 30: Revocation of Funding Freeze a Promising Sign for Democrats
I was very closely watching the saga of OMB’s disastrous effort to freeze funding for a vast number of federal programs, and wrote about why it was actually revoked at New York.
This week the Trump administration set off chaos nationwide when it temporarily “paused” all federal grants and loans pending a review of which programs comply with Donald Trump’s policy edicts. The order came down in an unexpected memo issued by the Office of Management and Budget on Monday.
Now OMB has rescinded the memo without comment just as suddenly, less than a day after its implementation was halted by a federal judge. Adding to the pervasive confusion, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt immediately insisted on Wednesday that the funding freeze was still on because Trump’s executive orders on DEI and other prohibited policies remained in place. But there’s no way this actually gets implemented without someone, somewhere, identifying exactly what’s being frozen. So for the moment, it’s safe to say the funding freeze is off.
Why did Team Trump back off this particular initiative so quickly? It’s easy to say the administration was responding to D.C. district judge Loren AliKhan’s injunction halting the freeze. But then again, the administration (and particularly OMB director nominee Russell Vought) has been spoiling for a court fight over the constitutionality of the Impoundment Control Act that the proposed freeze so obviously violated. Surely something else was wrong with the freeze, aside from the incredible degree of chaos associated with its rollout, requiring multiple clarifications of which agencies and programs it affected (which may have been a feature rather than a bug to the initiative’s government-hating designers). According to the New York Times, the original OMB memo, despite its unprecedented nature and sweeping scope, wasn’t even vetted by senior White House officials like alleged policy overlord Stephen Miller.
Democrats have been quick to claim that they helped generate a public backlash to the funding freeze that forced the administration to reverse direction, as Punchbowl News explained even before the OMB memo was rescinded:
“A Monday night memo from the Office of Management and Budget ordering a freeze in federal grant and loan programs sent congressional Republicans scrambling and helped Democrats rally behind a clear anti-Trump message. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer blasted Trump as ‘lawless, destructive, cruel.’
“D.C. senator Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, warned that thousands of federal programs could be impacted, including veterans, law enforcement and firefighters, suicide hotlines, military aid to foreign allies, and more …
“During a Senate Democratic Caucus lunch on Tuesday, Schumer urged his colleagues to make the freeze “relatable” to their constituents back home, a clear play for the messaging upper hand. Schumer also plans on doing several local TV interviews today.”
In other words, the funding freeze looks like a clear misstep for an administration and a Republican Party that were walking very tall after the 47th president’s first week in office, giving Democrats a rare perceived “win.” More broadly, it suggests that once the real-life implications of Trump’s agenda (including his assaults on federal spending and the “deep state”) are understood, his public support is going to drop like Wile E. Coyote with an anvil in his paws. If that doesn’t bother Trump or his disruptive sidekick, Elon Musk, it could bother some of the GOP members of Congress expected to implement the legislative elements of the MAGA to-do list for 2025.
It’s far too early, however, to imagine that the chaos machine humming along at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will fall silent even for a moment. OMB could very well issue a new funding-freeze memo the minute the injunction stopping the original one expires next week. If that doesn’t happen, there could be new presidential executive orders (like the ones that suspended certain foreign-aid programs and energy subsidies) and, eventually, congressional legislation. Democrats and Trump-skeptical Republicans will need to stay on their toes to keep up with this administration’s schemes and its willingness to shatter norms.
It’s true, nonetheless, that the electorate that lifted Trump to the White House for the second time almost surely wasn’t voting to sharply cut, if not terminate, the host of popular federal programs that appeared to be under the gun when OMB issued its funding freeze memo. Sooner or later the malice and the fiscal math that led to this and other efforts to destroy big areas of domestic governance will become hard to deny and impossible to rescind.
I will get excited when his approval ratings get below 40.
…is Kerry someone that people feel they can trust?
Game Set Match..
The same thing has been reported in California…a poll done in March…
While the poll doesn’t intend to track voting preferences, it does strongly suggest that Bush’s marks are falling among “average citizens” concerned with issues that affect their daily lives, according to Trounstine – – a former San Jose Mercury News political writer and former adviser to then- Gov. Gray Davis who now heads the SJSU consumer research institute.
Trounstine said that perhaps the “single most damning problem” for Bush is results on the question: Generally speaking, do you believe that what President Bush tells the American people is true?
More Californians, 48 percent, said no to the question — and 42 percent said yes. In the heavily Democratic Bay Area, 56 percent said they did not believe the president, and 33 percent said they did.
In two GOP strongholds, Bush got barely passing marks: in the Central Valley, 50 percent said they believe what the president says is true, and 37 percent said they did not; in the Southern California GOP strongholds, 50 per cent said they believed the president, and 43 percent did not.
“We’ve seen historically that when the White House develops a credibility problem, it’s very difficult to recover,” said Trounstine. ”
SF Chronicle article on a recent California poll 4/6/04