The reaction among Democrats to Donald Trump’s return to power has been significantly more subdued than what we saw in 2016 after the mogul’s first shocking electoral win. The old-school “resistance” is dead, and it’s not clear what will replace it. But Democratic elected officials are developing new strategies for dealing with the new realities in Washington. Here are five distinct approaches that have emerged, even before Trump’s second administration has begun.
Some Democrats are so thoroughly impressed by the current power of the MAGA movement they are choosing to surrender to it in significant respects. The prime example is Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the onetime fiery populist politician who is now becoming conspicuous in his desire to admit his party’s weaknesses and snuggle up to the new regime. The freshman and one-time ally of Bernie Sanders has been drifting away from the left wing of his party for a good while, particularly via his vocally unconditional backing for Israel during its war in Gaza. But now he’s making news regularly for taking steps in Trump’s direction.
Quite a few Democrats publicly expressed dismay over Joe Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter, but Fetterman distinguished himself by calling for a corresponding pardon for Trump over his hush-money conviction in New York. Similarly, many Democrats have discussed ways to reach out to the voters they have lost to Trump. Fetterman’s approach was to join Trump’s Truth Social platform, which is a fever swamp for the president-elect’s most passionate supporters. Various Democrats are cautiously circling Elon Musk, Trump’s new best friend and potential slayer of the civil-service system and the New Deal–Great Society legacy of federal programs. But Fetterman seems to want to become Musk’s buddy, too, exchanging compliments with him in a sort of weird courtship. Fetterman has also gone out of his way to exhibit openness to support for Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees even as nearly every other Senate Democrat takes the tack of forcing Republicans to take a stand on people like Pete Hegseth before weighing in themselves.
It’s probably germane to Fetterman’s conduct that he will be up for reelection in 2028, a presidential-election year in a state Trump carried on November 5. Or maybe he’s just burnishing his credentials as the maverick who blew up the Senate dress code.
Other Democrats are being much more selectively friendly to Trump, searching for “common ground” on issues where they believe he will be cross-pressured by his wealthy backers and more conventional Republicans. Like Fetterman, these Democrats — including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — tend to come from the progressive wing of the party and have longed chafed at the centrist economic policies advanced by Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and, to some extent, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They’ve talked about strategically encouraging Trump’s “populist” impulses on such issues as credit-card interest and big-tech regulation, partly as a matter of forcing the new president and his congressional allies to put up or shut up.
So the idea is to push off a discredited Democratic Establishment, at least on economic issues, and either accomplish things for working-class voters in alliance with Trump or prove the hollowness of his “populism.”
Colorado governor Jared Solis has offered a similar strategy of selective cooperation by praising the potential agenda of Trump HHS secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as helpfully “shaking up” the medical and scientific Establishment.
At the other end of the spectrum, some centrist Democrats are pushing off what they perceive as a discredited progressive ascendancy in the party, especially on culture-war issues and immigration. The most outspoken of them showed up at last week’s annual meeting of the avowedly nonpartisan No Labels organization, which was otherwise dominated by Republicans seeking to demonstrate a bit of independence from the next administration. These include vocal critics of the 2024 Democratic message like House members Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Ritchie Torres, and Seth Moulton, along with wannabe 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Josh Gottheimer (his Virginia counterpart, Abigail Spanberger, wasn’t at the No Labels confab but is similarly positioned ideologically).
From a strategic point of view, these militant centrists appear to envision a 2028 presidential campaign that will take back the voters Biden won in 2020 and Harris lost this year.
We’re beginning to see the emergence of a faction of Democrats that is willing to cut policy or legislative deals with Team Trump in order to protect some vulnerable constituencies from MAGA wrath. This is particularly visible on the immigration front; some congressional Democrats are talking about cutting a deal to support some of Trump’s agenda in exchange for continued protection from deportation of DREAMers. Politico reports:
“The prize that many Democrats would like to secure is protecting Dreamers — Americans who came with their families to the U.S. at a young age and have since been protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program created by President Barack Obama in 2012.
“Trump himself expressed an openness to ‘do something about the Dreamers’ in a recent ‘Meet the Press’ interview. But he would almost certainly want significant policy concessions in return, including border security measures and changes to asylum law that Democrats have historically resisted.”
On a broader front, the New York Times has found significant support among Democratic governors to selectively cooperate with the new administration’s “mass deportation” plans in exchange for concessions:
“In interviews, 11 Democratic governors, governors-elect and candidates for the office often expressed defiance toward Mr. Trump’s expected immigration crackdown — but were also strikingly willing to highlight areas of potential cooperation.
“Several balanced messages of compassion for struggling migrants with a tough-on-crime tone. They said that they were willing to work with the Trump administration to deport people who had been convicted of serious crimes and that they wanted stricter border control, even as they vowed to defend migrant families and those fleeing violence in their home countries, as well as businesses that rely on immigrant labor.”
While the Democrats planning strategic cooperation with Trump are getting a lot of attention, it’s clear the bulk of elected officials and activists are more quietly waiting for the initial fallout from the new regime to develop while planning ahead for a Democratic comeback. This is particularly true among the House Democratic leadership, which hopes to exploit the extremely narrow Republican majority in the chamber (which will be exacerbated by vacancies for several months until Trump appointees can be replaced in special elections) on must-pass House votes going forward, while looking ahead with a plan to aggressively contest marginal Republican-held seats in the 2026 midterms. Historical precedents indicate very high odds that Democrats can flip the House in 2026, bringing a relatively quick end to any Republican legislative steamrolling on Trump’s behalf and signaling good vibes for 2028.
Marcia,
Not to be a contrarian, but I fail to see how either FL or NH is out of play in ’04. Nor have I seen any justification from you for this position, other than “but they are.”
I believe discounting either FL or NH in ’04 is a strategy upon which Democrats embark at their own risk. The simple truth is, Gore lost FL (officially) by 537 votes, notwithstanding the fact that a third-party candidate running to the left of Gore pulled some 94,000 votes. As a matter of simple math, I think FL HAS TO BE in play in ’04. And as I previously mentioned, FL in recent elections had been trending more Democratic — in addition to Gore, Clinton carried FL in ’96. More northeastern retirees (who tend Democratic) are continuously moving into FL, and second-generation Cuban-Americans are less likely to be Republican than their parents were.
As for NH, that was another state where Nader pulled more votes than Bush’s margin of victory. And Clinton carried NH twice. NH has more entolled independents than either Republican or Democrats, so if courting the independent vote is important, NH is a state we can’t overlook.
I would also posit that TN is in play, in addition to the states already mentioned.
I disagree with Wishful’s statement that “historically, self-described Independents are Democrats in disguise.” As you can see from my two previous posts covering 7 different states, the Gore-Bush breakdown among Independents varied widely, from about even in Nevada and Arizona, to a Bush margin of better than 2-to-1 in Arkansas. In the key states of Ohio and Missouri, Bush’s margin among Independents was 16 or 17 points.
One thing I think that is getting overlooked is the fact that a good portion of Republicans are seriously annoyed with the Bush administration and it’s policies.
Fiscal conservatives, foreign policy multilateralists, moderates, libertarians, and pro-privacy pro-civil liberties christians all have some level of disgust.
The main problem is most of these people believe that another 4 years of Bush is preferable to any potential democrat. The question is what are their objections to voting for the democrats and can any of the issues where they object to Bush be wedged effectively enough to peel them off?
One thing to remember is regionalizm effects the Republican party just as much as it does the Democrats. For example the Western states are mostly libertarian and fiscal conservatives. Social and Religious issues don’t play nearly as well in Arizona as they do in Louisiana.
The Republicans have been using wedge issues to peel off various portions of the Democratic base for years, I think it is time we fought back. While this may not gain many percentage points it has the same effect as grabbing independants and will probably get some of them as well.
This is not to say I don’t think attempts to increase participation overall via voter-registration, youth and minority outreach, and GOTV efforts isn’t worthwhile. Single women and latinos are probably the best sources of new votes for Democrats. Both groups lean heavily our way at rates of around 2-1 and both groups have such low rates of turn-out that if even only a few can be convinced to participate that still translates into a lot of new Democratic voters.
With respect to Colorado, Californians are the problem, not the solution. The ones who left California are Republicans; the ones who stayed are Democrats. These influxes have just made Colorado a more conservative state. We used to elect Dems as Governors and Senators. No more. The only Dem holdouts are in the Denver and Boulder area. The rest of the state is red, red, red.
Historically, self-described independents are democrats in disguise. They prefer the “independent” label for vanity purposes because it avoids the stigma associated with being a talking-point following partisan. Winning this “independent” vote (whose “independence” isn’t determined by willingness to swing their vote but by their own arbitrary determination) therefore is rarely the accomplishment it seems.
Terry, Yes, the blue states lost several votes due to the 2000 census. I used as my reference for those numbers the map on John Edwards campaign site. You can find it at:
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/
I agree with you that in a two-man race, there would have been no question that Gore took Florida. I think Nader got something like 75K votes from there. But that was in 2000 and this is 4 years later.
Ron, let’s go back to those states I mentioned and talk about 2004, not 2000.
Arkansas is extremely winnable by Wesley Clark. The “native son” thing will take that state out of the red column if he’s the nominee. With Kerry or Edwards, there’s less of a chance, but a chance. Kerry’s military credentials and Edwards’ southerliness will play well.
Bush used the NRA heavily to defeat Gore in W. Va. It’s usually a pretty middle-of-the-road state, but convince them that “da gubmint” is coming to take their guns and they’ll head for the polls to defeat the dastardly creep who would dare such a move. Gore NEVER countered the NRA charges there, just kept going on an on about prescription drugs for seniors. Also, West Virginia has suffered economically under Bush AND that steel tariff fiasco didn’t play well.
Nevada is heartily miffed at becoming the nuclear waste dump for the country’s power plants. Nuff said.
Arizona is fairly conservative but not as right-wing as a lot of the solidly red states. It did go with Clinton in 1996, mainly because of the budget balancing. With the present deficit, Arizona is definitely risky for the GOP.
Colorado has had a pretty massive influx of Californians in the past 4 years. It did go to Clinton in ’92, so who knows?
The point of the whole discussion is that Bush has some vulnerability. What the Dems need to do is figure out where he’s most vulnerable, and get a candidate who can take advantage of it. Because make no mistake, the Bushies aren’t going to give us this one.
If you have some ideas on other states, anyone, feel free to share them. But I don’t believe that either NH or FL is in play. I’d like to be wrong on that, however :-}
Marcia,
Not doubting your electoral vote numbers, but all the Gore states plus Arkansas and West Virginia would have equaled 277 electoral votes in 2000. Did those states really lose 6 electoral votes overall?
Btw, I have to think New Hampshire is also in play. Bush barely won there in 2000, and there’s a pretty good chance that the Democratic nominee will be from a neighboring state (Dean and Kerry).
As for Florida, imho, there is no question that Gore would have carried Florida in 2000 in a two-man race (Bush won officially by 537 votes, whereas Nader, running to the left of Gore, picked up 94,000 votes). Florida had been moving toward the Democratic Party in years up to and including 2000. What’s the source for a reversal of course now?
For the states Marcia mentioned,
Gore got 47.1% of the two-party vote in Arkansas, and lost the 33% listed as Independents 30-62. He would have won by getting 41% of the Independents, so the Democrat needs to improve by 11% among Independents.
In West Virginia, Gore got 46.9% of the two-party vote, and lost the 21% who called themselves Independents by a 34-62 margin. Bush had a slight lead of less than 1% among the 79% who self-described as Democrats or Republicans, so Gore needed to win the Independents by 2 points, rather than losing them by 28. Gore’s main problem in WV was that Bush got 25% of the Democrats.
In Nevada, Gore got 48.15% of the two-party vote, while carrying the 28% listed as Independents 45-43. He would have needed 60% of the Independents to overcome Bush’s advantage among the 75% who self-identified as Republicans or Democrats.
In Arizona, Gore lost the 24% Independent share 44-45. He would have needed over 61% to overcome Bush’s lead among the 76% who self-identified as Republicans or Democrats.
In Colorado, Gore lost the 29% Independent share 39-44 (with Nader getting 13% of Independents). Gore would have needed 66% of the Independents to overcome Bush’s 57-43 advantage among among the 71% who self-identified as Republicans or Democrats.
So of these 5, the only one which would have flipped in 2000 by adding 14% to Gore’s percentage of Independents was Arkansas. That’s not to say they’re unwinnable, but winning any of them probably involves some improvement in the Democratic share of the Democratic and Republican vote, rather than just winning a large share of Independents. In Missouri, Ohio, and Florida, by contrast, the Democratic nominee can win by a relatively modest increase of 10 or 11% among Independents.
I am glad to see that independents have little faith in Bush’s abilities. My concern is that these same independents might have even less faith in those of his opponent. I think that Rove and his crew will address this issue. They realize that they can’t sell Bush using the economy, the war, his lack of concern for anyone but the rich, or anything else for that matter. The possible exception is the spector of terrorism. More alerts will follow this year in an effort to convince Americans that only Bush is capable of protecting America. (I know it’s funny but let’s not try to laugh too much.) They will characterize Bush’s opponent as even less able than Bush. Just in case all else fails, I’m sure that Bush, Rove et alia will be leading services to pray for an attack. If you think that this last point is ‘too over the top’, understand, these are same people who have committed this country to a frivolous war in Iraq and have plans for others if re-elected.
Paul,
I live in Ohio. I live in NE Ohio, which is the most progressive part of the state, and it’s becoming increasingly conservative. Ohio now has a GOP governor, two GOP senators, the majority of House Reps are GOP, and both the State House and the State Senate are controlled by the GOP. And…..look at the bill they passed yesterday in regards to gay unions.
I base my judgement on Florida on what I read. Those articles that have dealt with Florida’s political leanings have pretty much said it’s more Republican. They may not be accurate, but until I see something else to the contrary, I’ll have to take their word for it.
Both states MIGHT be winnable by Dems with the right candidate, but for now I just want a change of administrations and , IMO, the states I listed are more open to move into the “blue column than are either Ohio or Florida.
Aren’t the conclusions (1,2,3) always true? I would submit that any “Independent” that leans conservative is by definition not an Independent. Equivocation is a liberal trait, not a conservative one.
I’m just curious what the numbers are regarding independents perception of Bush as a person. I don’t think there is any question that when you push people who are not hardcore cons on what they think of Bush’s policies, the numbers are bad. But so much of what people seem to dig about Bush is the fact that he seems like a decent and regular guy to many people.
How does that perception play into the mix?
Marcia, Why do you say taht Ohio and Florida are more Republican than they were in 2000? Is that based on registration, polling data or just the results of the 2002 elections?
Ron,
The problem is that Florida is a lot more Republican today than it was in 2000. So is Ohio.
I think Dems need to look to states like W. Virginia, Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada and maybe even Colorado……..all are pretty much fed up with the Bush policies and are open to listening, at least, to a Dem candidate. Now, which candidate can best appeal to the voters in those states?
Oh, and if the Dem candidate retains ALL the Gore states and picks up only Arkansas and W. Virginia, he wins 271 electoral votes. 270 are needed to be elected.
In response to Longshot, Bush got 51.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri, and Gore got 48.3%. Independents cast 23% of the vote, and broke 55-38 for Bush. The party vote was a wash, so Gore needed to carry Independents, by doing 9 points better among them.
Ohio was almost exactly the same–each candidate got 9% of the other party’s voters, the party vote was 38-37 Democratic, and the 26% identified as Independents went for Bush 54-38.
And of course any improvement at all would swing Florida, where Gore actually carried Independents 47-46.
What was the polling universe? Registered voters or likely voters ?Typically makes a difference– when the sample comes from “registered” voters the results skew more liberal/Democratic, at least marginally.
Longshot has a good point…these overall polls are interesting, but the overall vote isn’t what elects a President. Can Democrats overcome Republicans’ virtual lock on the Southern and Great Plains states and get enough electoral college votes to win?
…then hope. “cynics didn’t build this country. optimists did.”
get people at the company picnic talking politics, and so on.
as for the subject independents, yes, i agree, and clark or edwards or kerry could probably do a better job of it than dean, but, of course, he’s supposed to get all of those young people fired up.
I almost hate reading your posts because they give me hope. Hope is probably not a good idea right now for a liberal, and someone working in a profession that is being carted offshore wholsale. If these new immigration restrictions pass… well… I’m frankly terrified of what that means. And the GOP run the country right now.
So I almost hate reading your posts. But damn, I wanna hope.
Ok — those are the stats today. Assuming the parties motivate their base as well as in 2000, what is the Indy split needed to swing a couple of states to the Democrat nominee — +9%, +2% ?
And which states(s) ?