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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Will Bush Definitely Be Re-elected?

If you asked the average pundit, they’d probably say yes. But the average voter sees it differently. According to  just-released CBS News data, only 38 percent now say Bush will definitely be re-elected, compared to 50 percent who say a Democrat can win. Intriguingly, this is a quite a bit worse than Bush’s father was faring in late 1991, when 47 percent thought he’d definitely be re-elected, compared to 42 percent who thought a Democrat could win.
But which Democrat is it going to be? Here’s some interesting data from Gallup that was just released: among Democrats and Democrat leaners, 52 percent say the Democratic nominee should be someone who opposed the decision to go to war but 62 percent say the nominee should want to repeal only the Bush tax cuts for the rich, not those for the middle class. The first item sounds like Dean, but the second one doesn’t.
Could this cause trouble for Dean? Possibly, especially if there was another candidate people took seriously who was also against the war, but didn’t want to repeal the middle class Bush tax cuts. Like….well, like Wesley Clark.