Bush has been tanking in the national polls lately, as DR has been delighted to document. But, as the 2000 election so vividly illustrated, it’s not enough to beat Bush nationally in the popular vote; you need to beat him state by state and gain a majority of the electoral votes to defeat him.
That’s why it’s so significant that Bush’s poll numbers have recently been tanking in one important state after another.
AZ: 34 percent say they would vote to re-elect Bush; 44 percent say they would vote for somebody else
CA: Bush overall job rating at 46 percent, on Iraq at 40 percent and below 40 on the economy, environment, health care, reducing unemployment and the budget deficit.
CO: 42 percent would vote to re-elect Bush; 35 percent to replace him
IO: 41 percent say they would vote to re-elect Bush; 41 percent say they would vote for the Democrat
MI: 44 percent say they would vote to re-elect Bush; 49 percent say they would vote for somone else
NM: 40 percent say they would vote to re-elect Bush; 43 percent would vote for another candidate
The Democrats look to be in good shape to hold their blue states from 2000 and, critically, pickup some of the red states where underlying trends are making Democrats competitive. And, if that happens, it’s bye-bye, W.