John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Online Survey, conducted 10/29-11/1. Kerry also leads Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Telephone Survey. Both poills indicate a surge for Kerry over the previous Harris Poll. The Harris report on the poll notes “If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”
The Harris Poll in three key states also affirmed the strong likelihood of a Kerry victory:
Florida – Kerry leads 51-47 percent of LV’s
Pennsylvania – Kerry ahead 50-48 percent of LV’s
Ohio – Kerry up 51-47 percent of LV’s
As the Harris report concluded, “Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it.”

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of nation-wide RVs in a Marist Poll conducted 10/31. Among LVs, Kerry has a one point lead (49-48).

John Kerry leads George Bush in Iowa 48-45 percent of LV/AV’s, according to a Des Moines Register Poll conducted 10/25-9.

Bush leads Kerry 51-47 percent of Virginia LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/27-9.
John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 49 percent of Nevada LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/28-9.
John Kerry leads George Bush 49-46 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to a Concord Monitor Poll conducted 10/26-28.
Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Pennsylvania LV’s, according to a Temple/Inquirer Poll conducted 10/22-7.
Kerry leads Bush 49-41 percent of Minnesota LV’s, according to a Star-Tribune Poll conducted 10/26-9.

John Kerry leads George Bush 49-48 percent of nation-wide RV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/28-30. The poll also found Kerry leading among Independents 48-45 percent.

George Bush leads John Kerry 48-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s in a 2-way Newsweek Poll conducted 10/27-29. The poll also found that Bush’s approval rating was 46 percent.

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of New Mexico LV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/27-30.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 47 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/27-30.

John Kerry leads George Bush 48.3-46.7 among Florida LV’s, with 1.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to a Florida Opinion Poll conducted 10/23-7 by New York Times Regional Newspapers. The poll also found that Kerry leads Bush among Florida Independents 48-40 percent.

John Kerry leads George Bush 46-40 percent of Michigan LVs, according to a Detroit News/Mitchell Research and Communications Poll conducted
10/25-28.
Kerry leads Bush 50-46 percent of MI LV’s in a Research 2000 Poll conducted 10/25-27.

John Kerry leads George Bush 54.3-41.5 percent of Miami Dade County LV’s, according to a new Miami Herald Poll conducted 10/22-5. Miami Herald reporter Jim Defede notes “In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County…According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A margin that large in Florida’s most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.”