John Kerry leads George Bush 48.3-46.7 among Florida LV’s, with 1.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to a Florida Opinion Poll conducted 10/23-7 by New York Times Regional Newspapers. The poll also found that Kerry leads Bush among Florida Independents 48-40 percent.
John Kerry leads George Bush 46-40 percent of Michigan LVs, according to a Detroit News/Mitchell Research and Communications Poll conducted
Kerry leads Bush 50-46 percent of MI LV’s in a Research 2000 Poll conducted 10/25-27.
John Kerry leads George Bush 54.3-41.5 percent of Miami Dade County LV’s, according to a new Miami Herald Poll conducted 10/22-5. Miami Herald reporter Jim Defede notes “In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County…According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A margin that large in Florida’s most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.”
John Kerry leads George Bush 49.9-44.6 percent of Pennsylvania LV’s, according to a Westchester University Center for Social and Economic Research Poll conducted 10/24-7.
John Kerry leads George Bush 49-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s, according to an Economist/YouGov Poll conducted 10/25-27.
Kerry leads Bush 49-46 percent of nation-wide LV’s in a new Democracy Corps Poll conducted 10/26-27
John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll conducted 10/22-26 .The Poll also found that, among the 16 percent of Flordians who have alread voted, Kerry leads by 56-39 percent.
John Kerry leads George Bush 59-30 percent of Latino RV’s in 11 states, according to a Univision/Washington Post/Thomas Rivera Policy Institute Poll conducted 10/4-16.
Note that Matthew Dowd, chief Bush campaign strategist, has said that Bush needs 38-40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004 to win. Looks like Bush isn’t going to make that target–or even come close.
New LA Times Polls, conducted 10/22-26 provide the following results for RV’s in 3 key states:
Florida – Bush leads 49-41 percent, 3 percent for Nader.
Ohio – Kerry ahead 49-45 percent in 2-way matchup.
Pennsylvania – Kerry up 48-45 percent head-to-head.
Kerry leads Bush among PA RV’s 49-46 percent in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/23-6.
Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Iowa RV’s in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/22-25.
John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 1 percent for Nader, 1 percent other and 2 percent not sure, according to a Harris Poll conducted 10/21-25.
Note that, since Harris is using their more restrictive definition of likely voters in this poll (registered, absolutely certain to vote, voted in 2000 if old enough to vote), this result actually represents an 9 point swing in Kerry’s favor since their mid-October poll, when Kerry was behind 51-43 among this particular flavor of likely voters.