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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Ed Kilgore

Obama, Edwards and “Change”

Paul Krugman of The New York Times has struck a big chord in the blogosphere with a new column that basically makes the case for John Edwards (as opposed to Barack Obama) more effectively than Edwards himself has been able to do so far.
Krugman begins by stipulating there’s not much difference between the two candidates on substance. He then makes two distinct arguments. The first is that by talking about bipartisanship and an inclusive approach to lawmaking, Obama is giving up leverage against corporate opposition to big domestic policy changes in advance, while Edwards is more realistically aiming at mobilizing anti-corporate public sentiment in a no-holds-barred, winner-take-all fight. The second is that Edwards as the Democratic nominee would ride a populist tide to a big victory, while Obama would probably win, but by a narrower margin that would limit his presidential power as much as his conciliatory rhetoric.
The first argument, which is also often made against Hillary Clinton, has always struck me as one that inflates tactical into strategic differences. Let’s say Obama’s elected president, and begins with an inclusive approach on health care. Let’s say further that Krugman’s right, and that corporate interests and/or conservatives prove to be obdurate in their opposition to any significant change. Has Obama lost or gained political capital with an initially conciliatory approach? Hard to say, as an abstract matter. If, on the other hand, John Edwards is elected president, and promotes a health care plan by way of an uncompromising assault on corporate interests, what will he do if he fails? Keep at it eternally until he wins, or compromise? That’s hard to say as well, and it’s even harder to say whether the Obama or Edwards approach would get the best and/or fastest results from a progressive point of view.
So in the end, the first argument for the Edwards approach depends pretty heavily on the second: the idea that Americans are begging for an anti-corporate, highly confrontational populism, and will reward its most forceful advocate with a big majority in 2008 and beyond.
There’s not much question that anti-corporate populism is a sentiment that’s on the rise, for the very obvious reason that the current administration and its GOP allies have engaged in a long pattern of mutually corrupting acts with corporate and other wealthy interests. But the idea that big majorities of Americans strongly support the idee fixee interpretation of corporate power–that it’s the single explanation for everything wrong with the country and the world–is just not supported by much evidence. Krugman offers a single data point: “A recent Democracy Corps survey of voter discontent found that the most commonly chosen phrase explaining what’s wrong with the country was ‘Big businesses get whatever they want in Washington.'”
That’s true, but in that survey, even though respondents had the chance to pick two explanations for America’s “wrong track,” something less than an overwhelming majority–40% to be exact–chose the anti-corporate narrative, seven percentage points ahead of the ancient conservative meme, “Moral and family values are being eroded.” The same survey also raised alarms about the preoccupation of independent voters with “uncontrolled borders.”
So while this is definitely a good year for populist rhetoric–and every single Democratic candidate is using it pretty heavily– the idea that it’s some sort of silver bullet that will produce the kind of majorities that will enable the next president to reject any sort of compromise and FDR his or her way to instant progressive victories is, well, a bit under-supported by the evidence. So, too, is the assertion that efforts to reach out beyond the Democratic base for support of progressive policies is (to use Krugman’s phrase about Obama) “naive,” as compared to the rival approach of seeking legislative majorities after labelling not only Republicans but half of Democrats in Washington as incorrigibly corrupt.
The ability to achieve “change” in the current political environment–and given our constitutional system, in almost any political environment–is hard to measure in advance. Obama’s inclusiveness wouldn’t suddenly change everything, but nor would Edwards’ willingness to “fight.” Democrats would be better advised to pick a candidate based on policies and on character than on the belief that any candidate can build a progressive record on nothing more than a different attitude.


Endorsements

We’ve reached the final stage of the pre-voting segment of the 2008 presidential campaign, and the ancient rituals of late candidate endorsements are playing out.
The big news yesterday was that the Des Moines Register, the rare newspaper that can actually affect votes, endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, giving her campaign a much-needed psychological boost going into the home stretch in Iowa (The Register‘s endorsement of John McCain on the other side is less influential, but could help him create some buzz towards a possible third- or fourth-place finish in Iowa).
Though the Register summarily dismissed John Edwards (who received their endorsement four years ago) as the purveyor of “harsh anti-corporate rhetoric,” he received the endorsement of Mari Culver, Iowa’s First Lady. This was hardly a surprise. Culver, a trial lawyer, caucused for Edwards four years ago, and while her husband, Governor Chet Culver, is officially neutral, his own political operation is full of Edwards supporters. The move will remind a lot of Iowans of the influential endorsement of John Kerry in 2004 by then-First Lady Christie Vilsack.
Meanwhile, back on the Republican side, McCain got another endorsement from a source who will raise a lot more eyebrows than the Des Moines Register: Joe Lieberman. Given their longstanding alliance on issues ranging from Iraq to cap-and-trade, and Lieberman’s near-total estrangement from the Democratic Party, the endorsement is hardly a surprise (I’m sure the happiest man in politics today is my former colleague Marshall Wittmann, the McCainiac who is now Lieberman’s communications director). But it does illustrate how rapidly some elements of what used to be thought of as the “center” have moved hard right in the crucible of contemporary poltics. Lest we forget, had the U.S. Supreme Court not intervened eight years ago, it’s likely that Joe Lieberman would be wrapping up his second term as Al Gore’s Vice President (and perhaps as his designated successor), and under another near-miss scenario, John McCain could be stumping the nation right now for a second term for John Kerry, as his Vice President. Instead, McCain is desperately struggling to become the conservative movement’s savior amidst the wreakage of a weak presidential field, and now Lieberman’s joined him. You have to figure that the odds of Lieberman again voting for Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader in 2009 have gone down to zero, which will be fine with Democrats assuming they pick up the additional seat necessary to finally bid Lieberman adieu.
UPCATEGORY: Democratic Strategist


Ground Round

Yesterday I did a post questioning the value of the “Iowa ground game” stories in the MSM. So where does one turn for the real beef? The best thing I’ve read is a long round of diaries at MyDD by someone with the handle of desmoinesdem, an Edwards precinct captain who served Kerry in the same capacity in 2004. The latest (which usefully includes links to six earlier diaries which explain the mechanics of the Caucuses in great detail) addresses the question of the moment: who’s winning in Iowa? And after patiently explaining why staring at polls is probably misleading, demoinesdem goes through the much more subjective measurements that a precinct-level operative utilizes to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing.
You should read the whole thing, but a few nuggets stand out. One is that campaigns tend to overlook potential caucus-goers who appear divided between other candidates; they’re not on the campaign’s radar screen, but could be very important to the actual outcome. Another is the often-forgotten fact that second-place preferences are not just an issue with lower-tier candidates, given the very high “viability” thresholds in smaller precincts. The 2004 winner, John Kerry, was “non-viable” in 222 Iowa precincts. And a third is that late momentum can be crucial, with factors like newspaper and elected official endorsements mattering a lot more in Iowa than in most places.
Speaking of endorsesments, in the comment thread to desmoinesdem’s latest post, there’s a discussion of the Des Moines Register endorsement, which is coming out this Sunday (much earlier than usual). The Register endorsement is universally thought to have helped John Edwards mount a last-minute surge in Iowa in 2004. But this time, the buzz seems to be that either Clinton or Biden will get the nod. And Biden, as desmoinesdem also notes, is the one low-tier candidate who seems to have some momentum at present–not enough to break into the Big Three, but enough potentially to change the dynamics.


Iowa First Forever?

There’s already been some derisive commentary (viz., from TAPPED’s Kate Sheppard) about the final question in today’s Des Moines Register Democratic debate, asking candidates to reflect on the joys of campaigning in Iowa.
When moderator Carolyn Washburn started into this question, I thought for a horrified moment she was going to pledge each and every one of the candidates to protect Iowa’s primacy in the nominating process now and forever, world without end, particularly as president. It would have been a difficult pledge to avoid at this point, with all of them lusting after every single Caucus vote. But instead, she only asked for a generic pander to Iowans, and only Joe Biden went over the brink and said “Iowa deserves to be first.”
Listening to the paens to Iowans’ sturdy civic virtues and the glories of food-on-a-stick, I’m probably not the only one to wonder what would have happened if the candidates had been attached to lie detectors. And I actually like Iowa.


Final pre-IA Dem Debate

I watched the Des Moines Register Democratic candidate debate partly out of sheer curiosity–to see if the Register or its editor and moderator, Carolyn Washburn, adjusted to the savage criticism they received after yesterday’s GOP debate.
They did, to some extent; there was no prohibition on discussion of key issues, and relatively little “Nurse Ratched” scolding of candidates for violating petty debate rules. But the format remained one that provided few opportunities for candidate interplay, pretty much letting them broadcast their messages to audiences in Iowa and elsewhere. There was also, as occurred yesterday, a heavy focus on the Register‘s peculiar obsession with fiscal policy.
Given that basic framework, the debate enabled the Big Three to sharpen their central pitches. HRC got in one very good defining line, though it may have been too subtle for many viewers: Some demand change (Edwards), some hope for it (Obama), but I know you have to work for it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her develop that line in the next three weeks.
But Edwards and Obama got to strut their stuff more often and more effectively. If it’s possible to hone a message into a blunt instrument, Edwards has done so with his anti-corporate theme, which he reinforced with almost every breath. And Obama achieved a nice balance between his wonkiness and rhetorical uplift. In the Frank Luntz focus-group reaction to the debate on Fox, Edwards and Obama scored very well. Indeed, it was a good reminder of how little attention regular folks pay attention to campaigns that several focus group members seemed happily surprised by Edwards’ I’ve-fought-corporations-my-whole-life routine, which us political junkies have heard him do about 5,000 times.
The other candidates, denied any chance to spark a fight, did the best they could, with Dodd touting his experience, Biden his expertise, and Richardson his folksiness and resume (though he seemed to have been surprised by the Wen Ho Lee question). The only candidate who had a really bad day was Dennis Kucinich, who was excluded.
The only other points worth making were again by Luntz, who noted (a) that his Dem focus group participants were vastly more positive about all the candidates than the GOP focus group he convened yesterday, and (b) that all his research in Iowa convinces him that the Democratic turnout on Caucus Night is going to be very, very heavy. Regardless of how that affects the outcome on January 3, that’s a good omen for Democrats next November.
UPCATEGORY: Democratic Strategist


Ground Beef

We’ve arrived at an interesting stage in the Democratic presidential contest. The chattering classes have all pretty much come to agreement that (1) it’s All About Iowa, (2) Iowa’s too close to call, and (3) in a close race, field organization totally rules. So naturally, there’s a huge appetite for insight into the Real Story, i.e., Iowa field operations, or “the ground game.”
Efforts to feed this beast are popping up all over the MSM, with mixed results.
The most overt “peek inside” piece is by Jay Newton-Small for Time, entitled “Inside Obama’s Iowa Ground Game.”
Newton-Small focuses on anecdotal information from mid-level Obama staffers and volunteers, not the high command, and his basic question is whether Obama is another Jimmy Carter or Howard Dean in terms of mobilizing new Caucus-goers. Carter basically put the Iowa Caucuses on the national political map with a big 1976 showing. Dean proved you could finish third with a head start in the polls, all the money and endorsements imaginable, and hordes of hyper-energized volunteers.
The reporter doesn’t really answer his own question, but instead lets Obama’s folk make the case that he’s doing outreach right, with particular emphasis not only on college students, but on indies and Republicans, and on supporters of lower-tier candidates whose second-round support on Caucus Night could be crucial. Without third-party verification, who knows how intensive or effective Obama’s field organization really is?
If Newton-Small’s piece illustrates the shortcomings of microanalysis of the Iowa “ground game,” the perils of macroanalysis are on display in a big Washington Post article on Clinton’s Iowa campaign by Anne Kornblut. A quick read of the piece conveys the impression that Clinton’s campaign is in panic mode, and is just now coming to grips with the harsh realities of Caucus politics. But in her effort to provide a big-picture look at the challenges facing HRC’s campaign, Kornblut telescopes many months of developments.
The Clinton campaign’s “crisis summit” over Iowa that leads the piece occurred back in October, light years ago in campaign terms. Moreover, the employment of battle-tested Iowa pros by HRC began last spring, when she picked up Tom Vilsack’s endorsement and placed her Iowa organization under the consummate field pro, Teresa Vilmain. And the internal struggle over Iowa that’s the subtext of the entire piece was about candidate time in Iowa and the need for additional field personnel, not the Iowa organization’s Caucus savvy. By all accounts, these internal issues have been resolved, so it’s not clear how germane they are to the current environment, unless you think Clinton could have crushed all opposition with an earlier start (hard to believe, since no one could beat John Edwards’ head start in Iowa).
I don’t mean to sound too critical here; there are real insights to be gleaned from both Newton-Small’s and Kornblut’s essays. And we’d all like to get a glimpse behind the veil of the Iowa campaigns.
But here’s the real problem: all of the Big Three have highly competent Iowa managers, excellent field operations, and all the money they need for the home stretch. One may prove to be better than others, but it’s a probably a matter of degree, and if one campaign is doing something really revolutionary, they’re probably not going to tell us about it. Perhaps in the end, Obama’s outreach and microtargeting program; the HRC/Emily’s List effort to radically boost turnout by women; or Edwards’ focus on rural precincts, will make a crucial difference. Maybe there will be a last-minute tactical agreement between candidates for second-choice support. And yes, the weather could matter a lot. But nobody knows right now, best I can tell from a sounding of my own contacts among political reporters and Iowa veterans.
We may just have to wait until Caucus Night to discover the real Ground Game story in Iowa.


Calling To the Bench

In my last post on the Des Moines Register‘s Republican candidate debate, I allowed as how there had been some grumbling about moderator (and Register editor) Carolyn Washburn’s handling of the event. That seems to have been an understatement.
There’s a general feeling that the debate format and moderator behavior made the debate meaningless. But some went further: viz., Dean Barnett of the Weekly Standard, whose post on the debate was subtitled “Why Carolyn Washburn should keep her day job.” If that wasn’t clear enough, Barnett said Washburn–or “Nurse Ratched,” as he called her–had “ruined” the debate with “her idiotic rules.” Wolf Blitzer must be very relieved.
In any event, it makes you wonder how or whether the Register will adapt before tomorrow’s Democratic candidate debate, which given the close three-way contest in Iowa, will be a truly big deal. Could there be a call to the Register‘s bench, where the columnist so often treated by fawning politicians as the God of Iowa Politics, David Yepsen, along with the Register‘s chief political reporter, Tom Beaumont, are waiting?


Snore-athon

I just watched the Des Moines Register Republican candidate debate, and learned little or nothing, other than that Alan Keyes is running for president again (guess I vaguely knew that, though the Register‘s decision to put him up on the debate stage, even as it excludes Dennis Kucinich from tomorrow’s Democratic debate, is just perverse).
I did find it a bit interesting that the first couple of questions, which focused on fiscal policy, elicited an immediate pledge from Giuliani to repeal corporate taxes, and two separate remarks by Thompson fretting about limitations on defense spending. That’s in case anyone was wondering if the candidates are still appealing to a relatively small sliver of the electorate. It was also illuminating to learn that after all sorts of gloomy talk about the fiscal crisis, only one candidate could bring himself to talk about asking Americans to sacrifice anything at all (and that was Thompson, who of course wants Americans to give up some Social Security and Medicare benefits).
All in all though, this debate was a snore-athon, and I don’t just say that because I’m a Democrat. Looking over at National Review’s The Corner, the boredom level was palpable, despite a general feeling that NR’s newly anointed favorite, Mitt Romney, was the winner. There was also a lot of carping about the debate’s sole moderator, Register editor Carolyn Washburn, who struggled to control the contestants and sounded annoyed much of the time. Best of all was this comment from Kathryn Jean Lopez:

What I don’t get is this is IOWA. Wouldn’t the editor of the DMR be a total political junkie? Wouldn’t she live for this? She looks and sounds bored out of her mind.

Welcome to today’s corporate media, K-Lo: Washburn is a Gannett careerist who was appointed to the Register editorship in September 2005, not an Iowan.


Big Picture

As the participation of actual voters in the 2008 presidential contest grows nigh, polls are rolling out at an ever-increasing pace (here, here, and here, just yesterday).
Put ’em all in a bag, shake ’em up, roll ’em back out, and the Big Picture becomes pretty clear:
On the Democratic side, Iowa remains skin-tight among the Big Three of Clinton, Obama and Edwards, and now NH and SC are tightening up as well. Whoever wins Iowa will almost certainly become the instant front-runner in the other two contests. And with no really clear front-runner anymore, “exceeding expectations” in IA may not be much of a factor. It’s all about win, place or show, and show is unlikely to cut it. Moreover, unless something really strange happens, the non-Big-Three candidates will all struggle to survive Iowa.
On the Republican side, there are now four candidates with a plausible route to the nomination: Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Huck’s got a growing lead in IA and national momentum; Romney’s got a sizable lead in NH and unlimited money; Rudy’s got February 5 plus the possibility that Huckabee and Romney will fatally wound each other; and McCain’s got enduring support in NH and, well, a growing sense that nobody else is broadly acceptable.
It’s going to be a wild ride beginning on January 3.


Beyond the Iowa Pre-Bounce

My last post suggested that Mike Huckabee’s surge is national support is a testament to the power of Iowa, showing that even perceptions of Iowa success have a significant impact on voters elsewhere, in advance of the Caucuses.
At TNR’s The Plank, Jason Zengerle agrees with my Iowa Pre-Bounce hypothesis, but wonders if Huckabee’s high expectations will diminish his actual Iowa Bounce, assuming he wins by a smaller margin than appears likely today. It’s a good if very hypothetical question, though I personally suspect a “Huckabee Wins Iowa” headline, complete with coverage of how he slew the Romney Money Machine, would be more important than the margin of victory.
But via Chris Bowers, there’s an alternative explanation of the National Huckabee Surge I missed, and while its utilization and efficacy is hard to measure, it’s definitely worth noting: Huckabee has access to Randy Brinson’s vast email list.
Brinson, the Alabamian who founded Redeem the Vote, is probably the most under-appreciated power broker in the Christian Right, though Amy Sullivan wrote a profile of Brinson last year, when he was flirting with bipartisanship, probably as a reminder to the GOP about the perils of taking conservative evangelicals for granted. As Sullivan noted, Brinson played a big role in turning out the evangelical vote for Bush in 2004, and now he’s firmly in Huckabee’s camp, along with his email list, which reportedly has an astounding 71 million names.
It’s not clear exactly how much Huckabee has used this list, but it’s certainly a good way for him to spread the glad tidings of his Iowa surge.