Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Third Way’s proposal: Increase Corporate Welfare
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/a-new-economic-bargain-20-ideas-to-change-the-lives-of-working-america
“This isn’t about promising everyone everything or handing out free stuff.” Cheap shot at progressives, all the while proceeding to do exactly that.
“We believe in a politics of abundance because the supply of housing, energy, workers, training, and small businesses drives opportunity. But we also need some demand-side subsidies to keep costs under control.” Subsidies have proven to do the opposite, increase prices/costs of subsidized goods, while failing to increase because of poor design.
1. A Health Care Bill of Rights
This proposal is just a regurgitation of the ACA (Obamacare).
“The ability to see any doctor you want”. Nobody can currently do this, not even people with the best insurance. This is an empty promise.
“…Crushing medical debt, which affects one in five African American and Hispanic adults and nearly one in six white adults”. Using identity politics to justify very incremental reforms.
Not a single proposal to control costs is fiscally irresponsible.
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
2. FHA for Car Loans
This is an interesting proposal, although it is basically a form of ex post facto Corporate welfare.
Why is the proposal missing the key word: “Used”.
Proposal 11 gives a subsidy to the Middle Class to buy new EV cars, but this one subsidizes keeping older dirtier cars longer on the road. Poorer communities will have poorer air quality.
Corporate welfare+potentially Fiscally irresponsible.
3. Make AI Pay Up
This is full of platitudes with no teeth. Reading between the lines it would keep the status quo of the Corporate sector being in charge of proposing where data centers should be located.
The government could just say they should be located close to renewable energy sources and that should produce/recycle their own clean water. Why not?
Platitudes+Corporate welfare.
4. No Tariffs on Family Essentials
Family Essentials is meant to cover basically all consumer goods under this definition.
“We can still use tariffs to stand up to adversaries.” Which adversaries? Does this cover unfair trade competition? Chinese goods produced by Corporations in third countries? What would be the purpose of these tariffs and how would success be defined?
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
5. First Home Buildout
“We need to build 12 million new homes that working families can actually afford by making it cheaper to build, opening up more land for housing…and cutting red tape and bureaucracy.”
How will building be cheaper? Where should land be opened up? What red tape and bureaucracy would be cut?
“And we should increase financial support for first-time homebuyers so families can afford the down payment and get in the door.” How? Corporate welfare.
Platitudes+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
6. Universal Child Care Coverage
“We’ll get there by significantly expanding private sector options—helping more child care providers open and grow, expanding flexible options for families covering nights and weekends, cutting unnecessary red tape, and building a larger child care workforce.”
What red tape would be cut?
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
7. Energy Bill Cap
“We need to transform LIHEAP (Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program), a bipartisan program that has helped the lowest-earning families afford their energy bills for decades, into WIHEAP.”
Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
8. National Electricity Highways
“And we should pay for it with low-cost financing to get projects moving…give states, counties, and towns financial benefits if they approve and host transmission lines going through their communities.”
The government could just say where they should be located close just like it did with the actual Interstate Highway system. Why not?
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
9. Red Tape Relief for Energy
What red tape would be cut?
Platitudes+Broken promises.
10. End the Ticket Trap
Minor consumer protection proposals for the upper middle class that can afford flights and concerts, but none to deal with bigger problems for the working class like wage theft.
11. Middle Class EV Tax Credit
Reinstating Corporate welfare+Broken promises+Fiscally irresponsible.
12. Work = Wealth Tax Reform
Repeated Broken promise.
13. Universal Private Retirement Accounts
“And we should help small businesses cover the cost so they can invest in their workers without putting jobs or their businesses at risk.” How? Corporate welfare.
Platitudes+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
14. $15 + $1
Repeated Broken promises+Corporate welfare.
15. The Fighting Fraud Dividend
This proposal essentially validates Trump, Musk and their DOGE!!
Platitudes+Broken promises+Fiscally irresponsible.
16. Apprenticeship U
“For decades, Washington has spent billions building a college pipeline while treating apprenticeships and the trades like a second-class option.”
This is simply a lie. Pell Grants don’t discriminate.
“We should create Flagship Apprenticeship Universities in each of America’s 50 states”
Why and how? Why hasn’t the WIA (Workforce Investment Act) worked?
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
17. Public College Compact
“Public colleges should make a four-year tuition guarantee.”
Broken promises+Fiscally irresponsible.
18. Equal Credit
“To level the playing field, we must smash those barriers—requiring universities to accept transfer credits, banning legacy admissions, and gutting inflated degree requirements in favor of skills-based hiring.”
Repeated Broken promises.
19. Startup America
“Let’s create 100 Startup Cities across America where we cut red tape, expand access to capital, and give entrepreneurs the tools they need to start and grow a business.”
What red tape would be cut?
This is coming from people associated with the movement to end Work from Home, which would actually have decentralized jobs and entrepreneurship away from major cities.
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.
20. The AI Displacement Plan
“We need a plan that guarantees workers displaced by AI access to job training and new skills, provides families with financial support while they get back on their feet, and makes AI literacy part of every kid’s education.”
Substitute “AI” for “free trade” and this is what Democrats have been promising for the past four (4) decades.
Platitudes+Broken promises+Corporate welfare+Fiscally irresponsible.