A. nugget from Fareed Zakaria’s “Democrats need to face their real liability” in the Washington Post: “The dilemma: The left has the passion, but the middle still has the votes Democrats need to win in general elections…The progressive answer is that Democrats can solve this by becoming more economically populist — attacking billionaires, expanding benefits and thus appealing to the working class. But these ideas don’t appeal to the actual working class. Among Democrats, a Pew survey shows 41 percent of college graduates say they like politicians who call themselves democratic socialists, compared with only 26 percent of those without degrees. Upper-income Democrats are also much more favorable toward democratic socialists than lower-income Democrats, 40 percent to 24 percent…But the Democratic Party’s problem is not that it is seen as too centrist on economics. Democrats routinely lead Republicans on issues like health care and, even now, the cost of living. Their liabilities are cultural and social issues — crime, immigration, the border and the “woke” agenda. One example: According to a poll by the Argument, among voters who disapproved of Trump but still leaned toward voting Republican, the GOP led on trust over crime 47 percent to 1 percent…The answer is not for Democrats to imitate Trump, abandon minorities or become reactionary. It is to stop imagining that Medicare-for-all and wealth taxes will restore the New Deal coalition. That world and that coalition are gone…Democrats need to show culturally moderate voters that liberalism can distinguish compassion from permissiveness, openness from disorder, and equality from ideological conformity. ” More here.
Yes, people power sometimes overcomes financial advantage. But it’s not an unalterable rule of politics, and the 2026 midterms money gap is so large that it will provide the most instructive illustration of the power of money vs. all other campaign factors to date. From “Republicans have a big midterm cash advantage. Democrats have alienated billionaires without winning back the working class” by Matthew Yglesias at Slow Boring: “Democrats’ current midterm polling feels almost too good to be true, and there’s a theory that summer polls are producing an illusory result. That may be the case…But rather than posit polling error, I would like to raise the concern that, while James Talarico and Mary Peltola really would win if the election were held tomorrow, between Labor Day and Election Day every Dem running in a “reach” seat is gonna get hit with a barrage of ads aiming to amp up polarization and keep these seats red, all powered by a resurgence in Republican fundraising…If your mentality is “well of course there’s always a lot of ads but who cares,” you may not be prepared for how much the financial balance of power has shifted.” More here.
In “Democratic socialists’ next hurdle: Winning over Black voters,” Bianca Flowers, Nolan D. McCaskill and Kat Stafford write at kelo.com: “After a summer of victories for Democratic Socialists of America-aligned candidates, the movement faces a new test: whether it can win over Black voters, a constituency central to Democrats’ hopes of regaining control of Congress in November…Florida state Representative Angie Nixon, who could become the first Black lawmaker elected to represent Florida in the U.S. Senate, may offer part of an answer. She overcame a more than 16-to-1 fundraising disadvantage to defeat retired Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary contest, running up large margins in Black communities while focusing on affordability and other everyday concerns…The debate underscores a challenge for DSA-backed candidates seeking to build on their primary successes. While Black voters have long criticized Democrats for paying attention to their communities mainly at election time, activists, strategists and community leaders interviewed by Reuters said some democratic socialists and progressive candidates face a different hurdle: persuading voters they are focused on housing, healthcare and rising living costs rather than ideological issues such as Gaza and defunding the police. More here.
“Unions gain ground among voters in both parties,” Morgan Chalfont reports at Semafor, via Yahoo, and writes: “Union support in the US is at a modern-day high, with majorities of both political parties expressing positive views about organized labor, according to Gallup polling…Seventy-one percent of American adults approve of unions, matching a 2022 peak; the reading hasn’t been higher than that since the 1950s. Notably, 52% of Republicans said they approve of unions, marking the second time in the last 25 years that a majority of the party has held this view…However, partisans differ in how much influence they want labor to have. Seventy-three percent of Democrats want unions to wield more influence, compared to only 19% of Republicans…Still, the polling underscores unions’ growing political might, as candidates from both parties compete for their leaders’ and members’ backing. President Donald Trump deepened the GOP’s support among union voters, but working-class Americans remain skeptical of either party, a new Politico poll found.”
Black voters seem to vote for more progressive candidates only when they are also Black. Hispanics behave similarly, but it doesn’t seem like to such a degree.
Otherwise they vote for either establishment candidates (often based mostly on name recognition or family dynasties) or candidates that appear to be moderate and are thought as more electable.
Wokeness is only accepted (or tolerated or overlooked) when it comes from one of their own.
Meanwhile (white) wokeness has made huge inroads among formerly moderate whites that are upper income, while still not becoming completely dominant. This plays out more clearly in high turnout presidential primaries than local contests.
At the end of the day the economic agenda of Democrats of all ideological stripes and ethnic backgrounds is still muddled and full of platitudes (in the case of “moderates”) or lacking in details (in the case of leftists).
Trump and geopolitics are making Democrats ideas impractical or unpopular:
1. Trump took over defense of Social Security via defense of the status quo, Democrats will need to shore it up financially by making at least some sort of unpopular changes
2. Trump has made Tariffs unpopular, taking away a key instrument for Industrial policy. Tariffs as a source of fiscal revenue complicate the discussion. Democrats have failed in coming up with a nuanced trade/industrial policy.
3. Trump has sabotaged the domestic Renewable energy industry, while China has taken over its industrial supply chain making the case for its expansion less clear cut. The Ukraine and Iran wars have made the case for domestic energy production stronger, but the German experience has made the case for renewables weaker (though Spain is a counterpoint).
4. Trump has made Immigration popular, but it has become so popular among Democrats that congressional reforms will actually be harder because of the increase in support for de facto open borders and opposition to quotas and interior enforcement.
5. Trump has taken up some of the most popular aspects of Medicare like prescription access for the old and some price controls, while eviscerating Medicaid and Obamare/ACA expansion for the poor and working class, returning healthcare into the welfare (deserving/undeserving) political framework with almost no pushback from Democrats. Medicare for All depends on healthcare as a human right framework. Leftists insist on any Medicaid/Obamacare expansion covering immigrants thereby increasing the financial and political cost, including for a public option. “Minor” reforms like dental and vision coverage, long term care and potentially lowering the eligibility age fall by the wayside. Democrats have no new ideas for reducing healthcare costs.
6. Spending on College via student loan restructuring has lost momentum. Democrats have no ideas for cost control in higher education and child care. No new ideas on Education in general.
7. The Iran and Ukraine wars and the Taiwan threat have made the need to invest more in the Military acute. Democrats will find it hard to ignore this and balance it with domestic spending. No Democrat is making the case for a stronger military via shifting spending to drones, which would anyway be politically difficult because of district pork barrel politics (as was the case with base closures -which in hindsight were probably a mistake-).
8. Media and the markets (Bond meltdown) are already preparing to make Deficit reduction the framework for fiscal debates.
9. Raising Taxes on the Rich to prop up Social Security while also doing it to expand Medicare while also doing it for something/whatever else will be a huge lift.
10. Democrats have given cover time and again to Republicans reductions of Taxes on Corporations.
11. Democrats are opposing Data Centers for AI but have no ideas on what will drive the economy in the absence of the AI/data center boom. Just like with infrastructure the framework is vague on specifics.
12. Democrats want to control Housing costs and Infrastructure costs but oppose the most important Permitting reforms. Discussions about these issues and energy require Geographic and environmental tradeoffs that can’t be ignored. Voters will not instinctively trust Democrats on these issues because Blue states/cities have some of the worst records on them. Democrats should be willing to say things like we support data centers and solar in arid areas and we support unrestricted expansion of housing in current commercial areas.
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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/expanded-child-tax-credit-economic-sentiment/?utm_campaign=Economic+Studies+Bulletin&utm_medium=email&utm_content=436217384&utm_source=hs_email&fbclid=IwY2xjawUE7fZwZG9mBWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAGJyaWQRMTVvYlZRS1RtU2YwZVcwQXhzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEewsKNBudp736RdawuiOnQQ9xhsGBnOeRnv3QUUsl5v8hRVX8QpbcpHR8R53s_aem_Jp1RdJA2m0V1FxQkNa4U9w
“The expiration of the expanded 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) in early 2022 sharply cut income for families with children—and left them much more pessimistic about the economy.
Each $1,000 in lost CTC benefits reduced consumer sentiment by about 1.7 points (2.4%), with the largest declines among lower-income families with three or more children.
These effects persisted through 2024 and extended beyond personal finances to households’ views of the broader economy and government policy.”
I wish so many pundits didn’t live in a world where we still elect an average of three dozen Blue Dogs to the House per election. The reality is that the insistence that moderation can win over rural and blue-collar voters is promising the exact opposite of centrist candidates’ modern results.