Sam Stevenson reports that “Democrats Are Gaining Ground in Republican States” at Newsweek:

Recent polling shows Democrats competing deep inside Republican territory while posting more modest advantages in several traditionally Democratic states, a pattern Nate Silver has described as coherent, consequential, and “slightly weird.”

Silver argues that this uneven movement gives Democrats greater potential rewards than a conventional national swing, but also raises the risk that several apparent opportunities could unravel together.

Republican candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas now face a broader battlefield. At the same time, Democrats must remain competitive in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire, he wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.

Yet the movement is far from uniform.

Susan Collins’ Maine Senate lead in a recent New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey offers a notable counterpoint to Democratic gains elsewhere.

The poll placed Collins three points ahead of Democratic rival Troy Jackson, although her advantage was within its margin of error.

“Since Labor Day, Democrats have been zooming ahead in pretty much every model or polling average or prediction market that you might want to look at,” Silver wrote.

“At times, it’s literally been hard to find contrary data points to the hypothesis of a huge D sweep. So the poll serves as a reminder that picking up four Senate seats is never easy.”

…Ohio illustrates the potential. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted September 14 to 16 among 1,085 likely voters put Brown ahead of Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed when Vice President JD Vance stepped aside to work in the White House, by 45.4 percent to 41.5 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

InsiderAdvantage surveyed 1,200 likely Ohio voters from September 8 to 9 and found Brown leading Husted by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

More here.