From “How Working Class Voters Respond to Non-Cost Messages” by the Working Class Project at The Working Class Weekly: “Tariffs and the war in Iran are raising prices at the grocery store and gas pump, and cuts to Medicaid and the expiration of ACA tax credits have made healthcare increasingly hard for working class voters to afford. Corruption is also a salient issue with this group, particularly when it’s tied to the cost of living and healthcare cuts…But we’ve also tested non-cost messages to gauge which, if any, other Republican negatives move these voters. This week we’re highlighting some of our findings on other messaging across the battleground — and what Democrats should do with it…Non-cost messages such as the ballroom landed broadly as demonstrating how Republicans are out of touch. In Iowa, infrastructure cut sharply with the men in our focus groups. The top performing non-cost message among these men was “A Republican who opposed billions of dollars in investments to repair bridges, roads, and rural broadband projects, even though Iowa’s infrastructure is ranked among the worst in the country.” This message was potent specifically with these voters given Iowa’s distinct infrastructure challenges.

“Our roads are f***ing horrible. They’re so bad…For someone to not see that there’s a glaring need is not something that I would be supportive of that person’s stance at all.” — White Man from Iowa

In the same vein, avoiding town halls also resonated as a sign of Republicans being out of touch, particularly with men in Iowa, where town halls and infrastructure are a generally more meaningful part of the political culture than in other places.” More here.

In “The Supreme Court Is Helping Trump Rig the Midterms: Trump’s order limiting mail-in voting is patently unconstitutional—but that didn’t stop the court from giving it the green light,” Elie Mystal write at The Nation: “In an emergency decision, issued through the shadow docket, the Republican supermajority gave Trump permission to limit voting by mail in the upcoming midterm elections. In doing this, the six GOP justices well understand that the president is trying to give himself the ability to manipulate the vote. They’re not confused by his plan. They’re not being obtuse. They’re simply aiding and abetting Trump’s assault on democratic self-government…The entire executive order is unconstitutional. Voter registration and the maintenance of voter rolls is handled on the state level, not the federal level. The Trump administration has no constitutional authority to tell the states whom can be sent a ballot. It has no constitutional authority to tell the Postal Service whom it can deliver mail to. It has no legal authority to prosecute state officials who follow their own state’s procedures for producing that mail…A group of 23 states sued the Trump administration and, in July, US District Judge Indira Talwani blocked Trump’s unconstitutional executive order. But then Trump appealed to his Supreme Court—and, on Monday, the Republican supermajority dutifully stayed the district court order and allowed Trump to proceed with his election-rigging plans…That argument is every bit as preposterous as it sounds. State election officials are being harmed, right now, by the threat of prosecution should they follow their state’s procedures for issuing mail-in ballots. Voters in those states are being harmed, right now, by the confusion Trump is causing over whether they can expect to receive a ballot. Either the court thinks that such harms can be stopped at some point in the future or, more likely, they think that Trump’s attempts to suppress the vote and rig the election aren’t “harms” at all.” More here.

“More than 160,000 Ohioans have lost Affordable Care Act insurance since Republicans in Washington allowed Covid-era subsidies to expire — nearly a third of the Obamacare market and the biggest coverage dropoff of any state,  Alice Miranda Ollstein writes at Politico. “Another 360,000 are poised to lose Medicaid next year due to cuts Congress passed last year. As Republicans either avoid discussing health care on the campaign trail or dismiss those losing insurance as fraudsters or undeserving of public assistance, Democrats are offering sympathy and pitching solutions…“When Republicans pass legislation that spikes health care premiums and kicks a bunch of people off of the health care they need to survive, that’s a kitchen table issue and it gives us a strong offensive argument,” said CJ Warnke, the spokesperson for House Majority Forward, a PAC aligned with Democratic leadership that plans to run millions in ads in the Dayton and Columbus suburbs to try to flip districts long held by Republicans…Amy Acton, the state’s former health director who hopes to become the state’s first Democratic governor in 15 years, and Sherrod Brown, who is gunning to win back the Senate seat he lost in 2024, told POLITICO that at nearly every campaign stop, voters tell them stories of insurance denials, premiums that have doubled or tripled, monthly pharmacy bills totalling hundreds of dollars, and long drives for health services due to provider shortages and hospital closures…Democrats’ fresh hopes of victory in the bellwether state after years of losses is something Brown, Acton, their supporters, and neutral policy experts attribute in large part to voters’ health care woes.” More here.

J.Miles Coleman reports the good news in “Three Rating Changes in Texas, All Towards Democrats” at The Center for Politics: “The open Texas Senate race moves to Toss-up, as state Rep. James Talarico (D) leads in polls more often than not against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who will need a rescue operation from national Republicans…Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), though much better-positioned than Paxton, is no longer in a completely Safe Republican race…s strange as it may seem, Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s (R, TX-15) reelection bid in a Trump +18 district now appears to be a genuine Toss-up…If Democrats were to win a statewide race in Texas, or even come reasonably close, one of the several factors that would have to align for them would probably be the state’s Latino vote snapping back to them. While the movements in Latino precincts in places like Houston and Dallas will probably be consequential, the three “classic” South Texas U.S. House seats may also tell a story on this front…Democrats are entering the election with 2 of the 3 South Texas seats. Despite a Republican-driven redistricting effort, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) got, arguably, a more favorable district while Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) still seems to have a path to reelection; we rate the former as Leans Democratic and the latter as a Toss-up. The third district, which sits geographically in between those two, is TX-15, held by two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R). TX-15 is also, by presidential partisanship, the reddest of the trio—it was the only one to vote for Trump in 2020, although it only did so narrowly, before it backed him by 18 points in 2024. Though De La Cruz ran a little behind Trump in 2024, she still won by 14 points that year…South Texas Democrats have a heralded recruit in TX-15 this year with Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. We did get a rare public poll of the race earlier this morning: the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found Democrats leading in all three South Texas seats, with Pulido up 50%-45%. Whether Pulido is actually leading is debatable, but our understanding is that this is indeed a highly competitive contest…While we would usually not rate a Trump +18 seat as a Toss-up, the area just may be more elastic than most districts, and while the region is likely moving right in the longer term, there may be a significant snap back to Democrats in the short term.” More here.