This isn’t a new issue, but Donald Trump has managed to really alienate farmers and agribusinesses at the worst possible time, as I explained at New York:
From time immemorial, the midwestern Farm Belt has been a source of great turbulence in U.S. politics. A historically conservative region, the Farm Belt was responsible for shocking Democratic upset wins in presidential contests, such as the reelections of Woodrow Wilson (thanks to his opposition to U.S. entry into World War I) and Harry Truman (who defended New Deal farm programs against GOP efforts to dismantle them), as well as the semi-regular appearances of progressive politicians from William Jennings Bryan and Henry Wallace to George McGovern.
The percentage of Americans working and living on farms is obviously much lower than in the past, but many Midwesterners are still exquisitely sensitive to the agricultural economy. And the pain of farmers and agribusiness employees today is contributing to midwestern disgruntlement with Donald Trump and his Republican Party, as the Daily Beast’s Martha McHardy reports:
“Donald Trump’s farm-country stronghold is struggling due to an economic crisis that farmers say he is making worse.
“Trump won 69 percent of rural voters in 2024, according to Pew, while farming-dependent counties in the Corn Belt backed him by an average of 78 percent, according to Investigate Midwest …
“Farmers who overwhelmingly backed him in 2024 say his trade war and Iran conflict have sent costs soaring, piled on uncertainty and pushed the agricultural sector into its worst financial downturn in decades.”
While the shooting war with Iran has boosted diesel-oil and fertilizer prices affecting farmers acutely, the latest trade war with Canada is making trade-dependent voters in areas near the northern border very nervous. And though the administration tried to show some responsiveness to swing voters, its efforts could backfire, as The Guardian noted:
“Donald Trump is facing growing criticism from within his own party over his decision to temporarily pause US tariffs on foreign beef in a bid to bring down grocery prices.
“The president’s announcement that the US will import up to 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef without charging higher tariffs has alarmed some senior Republicans, who warn that ‘flooding’ stores with imports will hit US farmers.”
There’s talk of including relief for farmers and the communities that rely on them in a third budget-reconciliation bill before the midterms. But this Reconciliation 3.0 initiative is unpopular in the Senate and could get snarled by disputes over Trump’s SAVE America Act, funding for the Iran war, and unpopular “offsets” for new spending wrung from domestic safety-net programs. Help may not be on the way.
As a result, midwestern states are very clearly becoming ground where Democrats could make the congressional gains necessary to flip control of the House and perhaps the Senate. Silver Bulletin’s recent forecast of the midterm vote made this point about House races in the region:
“[T]he Midwest is a veritable treasure trove for Democrats. Ten of the 12 competitive Midwest seats are Democratic pickup opportunities. They’re likely to take Iowa 3 and almost certain to pick up Nebraska 2, which has eluded them in recent elections. Of their remaining offensive options, four are Lean D, three are Toss-ups, and just one is Lean R.
“Many of those Lean D Midwest races fall into the category of red-leaning seats — such as Wisconsin’s 3rd District, which Trump won by about 4.5 points in 2024 — where [the Silver Bulletin model] simply thinks the national environment will be strong enough to outweigh the partisan baseline. Thanks to strong national tailwinds, Democrats now have a 65 percent chance of winning WI-3. It’s much the same story for even redder districts like R +5.5 Michigan 4.”
Meanwhile, the Senate landscape in farm country looks ripe for Democrats as well. The Cook Political Report rates contests for Republican-controlled Senate seats in Iowa and Ohio — and in two other states with sizable agricultural belts, Alaska and Texas — as toss-ups. Two other GOP Senate seats thought to be absolutely safe at the beginning of the cycle, in Kansas and Nebraska, are now rated “Likely Republican,” which means an upset could be on the table if there’s a strong pro-Democratic breeze nationally.
This landscape helps explain why Trump and the GOP seem determined to make their midterm pitch revolve around cultural issues and attacks on the alleged extremism of Democratic candidates. Republicans might have already lost the economic debate in the heartland, and that has been a formula for GOP failure in the past.
