It’s subject to a final vote by the DNC, but looks like the order of 2028 primaries could be set, as I explained at New York:

South Carolina’s Republicans have been in the political news this week as they struggle to figure out how to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham. But now Democrats in that state are enjoying their hour in the sun. In a decision whose direction and timing was up in the air until the last minute, the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee agreed upon a calendar for early presidential primaries in 2028. Six states ultimately made it inside the charmed circle allowed to hold primaries before the gold rush of Super Tuesday (March 7), and South Carolina edged out Nevada for the kickoff event on January 22. Here’s the list: South Carolina (January 22), Nevada (February 1), New Hampshire (February 8), New Mexico (February 15), Michigan (February 22) and Virginia (February 29).

The full DNC will have to ratify this calendar next month. But the committee in charge of making recommendations chose to brush aside talk of waiting until after the midterms to resolve the issue, and while tweaks often occur, the order of states and the basic framework are likely set.

Going into the RBC meeting, it was already established that all four regions would have at least one state in the “early primary” window, with South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire contending for the opening event. The vote to go first was: South Carolina 26, Nevada 19, New Hampshire 4. Despite its historic claims of primary, New Hampshire was doomed by its lack of diversity, and it didn’t help that the state chose to hold an unsanctioned primary in 2024. Labor and Latino advocacy groups strongly backed Nevada, and Black advocacy groups pushed South Carolina. It’s likely that Democratic angst over what’s happening to southern Black representation in Congress and state legislatures due to the wave of gerrymanders the U.S. Supreme Court greenlit in Callais v. Louisiana made the difference in the close vote.

One familiar state name was missing from the early calendar. Iowa suffers from lack of diversity and a disfavored caucus tradition, but more importantly, it largely disqualified itself with a disastrous counting meltdown in 2020. The RBC overwhelmingly chose Michigan over Iowa to represent the midwest region in the early state window. It also added New Mexico from the west and Virginia from the east to round out the schedule.

One data point that made this decision a bit easier was the sense that “going first” might not be as decisive a factor in the primaries as it used to be. In 2020, Joe Biden performed very poorly in the first two contests (finishing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire) before rebounding partially to place second in Nevada and then achieving his breakthrough win in South Carolina. Still, the decision to place the Palmetto State first in 2028 will be perceived as creating a nice launching pad for Black presidential candidates, particularly Kamala Harris, who had already dropped out when the state voted in 2020. More to the point, knowing the order of primaries will help 2028 candidates and proto-candidates develop a strategy to win the nomination and plan their early appearances.

The new calendar order of Democratic primaries in 2028 will also increase the differences between the two parties in who votes when. Republicans, who aren’t troubled by non-diverse states having a disproportionate impact on the nominating contest, and don’t have a problem with caucuses, could very well go with the traditional order of Iowa first, then New Hampshire, then Nevada and then South Carolina. But with respect to both parties, it’s important to remember that there’s really no such thing as a national presidential nominating “system;” the primaries are governed by state legislative and state party decisions with the national parties always struggling to control them with sticks and carrots. So don’t be shocked if the exact timing or even the order of contests changes. But it’s a good guess that South Carolina Democrats–and Iowa Republicans–will defend their first-in-the-nation status to the last ditch.