washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

True Costs of the Iran War

It ain’t over yet. But here is what the Iran War costs the U.S. so far, according to “Was It Worth It? The True Cost of Trump’s Iran War” by Max Boot at The Council on Foreign Relations:

There is, first, the human cost. The U.S. lost thirteen troops in the conflict, while Iran lost over 3,375 people, including 170 killed in what was likely a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school. Twenty-six people who were also killed in Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel, and dozens more in various Gulf states. At least two thousand people have been killed in Lebanon where Israel has mounted a major offensive in response to Hezbollah attacks.

Then there is the economic cost. Moody’s Analytics estimates that the war has cost U.S. consumers and taxpayers about $132 billion so far and counting. The largest share of that came through the price at the pump. Gasoline prices peaked at an average of $4.56 a gallon before dropping once it appeared that the two sides might come to an agreement. Fertilizer prices also climbed about 47 percent during the war, indirectly contributing to rising food costs. Persian Gulf countries and the Global South were hit even harder than the United States. As a result of the war, the World Bank downgraded its global forecast for economic growth this year to 2.5 percent—the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Finally, there is the military cost. According to The Wall Street Journal, the deputy secretary of defense just told members of Congress last week that the department will be requesting $80 billion in supplemental funding to cover the cost of the war and other expenses. That is almost certainly a massive underestimate. It does not include, for example, the cost of repairing the twenty U.S. bases in the region that suffered damage from Iranian attacks. The United States will also need to pay to repair or replace the forty-two U.S. military aircraft, both manned and unmanned, that were lost or damaged in the conflict.

It will be even harder and costlier to replace all of the high-end U.S. missiles employed in the conflict. The U.S. fired more than one thousand Tomahawk cruise missiles and more than 1,500 air-defense missiles. The expended munitions include more than half of the prewar inventory of Patriot missiles, which are desperately needed by Ukraine to defend against Russian missile attacks. Replacing those stockpiles could take up to six years, the Wall Street Journal reports, and in the meantime the United States will be less prepared for a major conflict against China or Russia.

There is also the hard to estimate “opportunity costs” – things we didn’t fix or correct because of war expenditures. And, keep in mind that this is just an early estimate. When all the bills are paid, including litigation fees, don’t be shocked if the immediate costs to taxpayers come to much more. More here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *