From “Trump’s own pollster hits him with devastating prediction about key voting bloc” by David McAfee at Raw Story:  “One of President Donald Trump’s longtime pollsters is warning that the working-class white voters who built his political movement are turning on him — and that their disillusionment could cost Republicans control of Congress this fall…John McLaughlin, who has polled for Trump for years, told The New York Times that those voters are fed up with the Republican Party and may simply stay home in November. Getting them to the polls is critical, he said, before delivering a blunt prediction: “If they don’t, we lose the House and the Senate.”…The warning came in a Times analysis that traced a remarkable collapse in Trump’s economic standing with white voters who don’t hold a college degree — the demographic that has anchored his coalition since 2016 and broke for him better than two to one in 2024…On the eve of the 2018 midterms, the paper found, those voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy by margins of 30 points or more. Today, polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 points to north of 30…Recent surveys put his economic approval with the group across the 30s and 40s: 33 percent in a Fox News poll, 39 percent at CBS News, 40 percent in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll and 43 percent at CNN. On the cost of living specifically, the Times found just 36 percent approved. Fox pegged approval of his inflation handling at 25 percent…Pollsters in both parties told the paper the slide is being driven by stubbornly high prices for gas and groceries, Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran.” More here.

In “Why Is Trump Tanking in MAGA Country? These Dems Found a Good Answer,” Greg Sargent reports any The New Republic: “We learned this week that the Democratic-aligned group American Bridge plans to spend $50 million to help the party’s congressional candidates in this fall’s elections. It’s a whopping sum and a big gamble. The group’s announcement of its targeted seats turned heads in Democratic circles: They include House districts in some pretty pro-Trump areas in rural North Carolina, central Pennsylvania, and Iowa farm country…All of which raises a question: Are these really plausible pickup opportunities for Democrats? The selection of these seats, it turns out, is backed up by some detailed internal polling and research. The findings shed light on the party’s perennial debate about how to win back various working-class and Trump-curious constituencies—and offer reasons for cautious optimism…The research into these places—which was conducted by the Democratic firm BlueLabs for American Bridge and described to The New Republic—tells a somewhat complicated story. To start with, the most eye-opening finding is that a lot of voters in these red places blame Trump and the GOP for their economic woes…To gauge this, American Bridge modeled a target universe of voters in these regions, using survey research, vote history, and other techniques. This voter universe includes people souring on Trump (they voted for him but now disapprove), people deemed highly persuadable (not rigid partisans), and people who describe themselves as in some sense economically vulnerable.”

Sargent continues, “The pollsters then asked these pools of voters if they see the economy worsening and who they blame for it. The answers they got back from four states are striking:…

• In Iowa, 58 percent of these targeted voters see the economy worsening and blame Trump for it, and 56 percent blame the GOP.

• In Michigan, 63 percent of these voters blame Trump, and 61 percent blame the GOP.

• In North Carolina, 51 percent of these voters blame Trump, and 48 percent blame the GOP.

• In Pennsylvania, 54 percent of these voters blame Trump, while 57 percent blame the GOP.

…Drilling down further, the findings are very similar among that pool of voter groups within the specific House districts (all of which Trump won in 2024) that American Bridge is targeting in these states. Among them: two in Iowa (the 1st and 2nd), two in Michigan (the 4th and 10th), one in Ohio (the 7th), one in Pennsylvania (the 8th), and four in North Carolina (the 3rd, 5th, 9th, and 11th)…So what do these voters want? Well, among the targeted constituencies in these districts, the testing found, a certain type of economic messaging resonates. It blames insurance companies and other conglomerates for high medical and prescription drug costs and hits big corporations for price gouging and tax avoidance. It blames Trump and Republicans for allowing these things to happen. And finally, that messaging vows that Democrats will crack down on them.” More here.

Sam Levine reports that “FBI raid of Ohio voting rights group stokes fear of pre-midterm crackdown” at The Guardian, and writes: “The FBI raided the office of a voting rights group in Ohio on Thursday, prompting immediate concerns the Trump administration is cracking down on such organizations ahead of the midterm elections…FBI agents raided the Cleveland office of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative, a grassroots group that does voter registration work, said Prentiss Haney, a board member of the group. Agents seized computers and phones, he said, and also showed up at homes of people affiliated with the group throughout the state and interviewed them…“This raid is a full-on coordinated assault weaponizing the justice department and DHS against people who are fighting for working-class voters and Black voters to make sure they have access to the ballot,” Haney said in an interview…The agents appeared to be examining accusations of fraud relating to the 2024 election, Haney said, but it was not immediately clear what the specifics of the investigation were beyond that. The FBI’s office in Cleveland did not return a request for comment. Trump won the popular vote in Ohioin 2024, delivering him 17 electoral votes, and Bernie Moreno, a Republican senator, unseated Sherrod Brown, a longtime Democratic incumbent, in an expensive race that helped deliver the Senate to the GOP. The partisan balance of Ohio’s House seats did not change.” More here.