You may have seen one of the news reports over the weekend regarding the buzz about Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a potential Republican presidential candidate in 2028. So, what if Rubio suddenly resigned from the Trump Administration?
As Secretary of State, Rubio has undoubtedly gotten a taste of what it feels like to be a respected leader of the free world in the wake of his Vatican trip. Hanging out with the Pope and other leaders, engaging in statecraft and being perceived as a cut above Trump’s other minions. It may have given Rubio a heady whiff of stature he would not have known had Trump chosen someone else to be Secretary of State.
Rubio is undoubtedly grateful for the opportunity. At the same time, however, he knows that Trump would throw him under the bus if it became politically-advantageous. Indeed, that is exactly what may happen as a consequence of the Iran mess. No matter how much loyalty Trump promises his appointees, the record shows that he has fired a hell of a lot of them.
If Rubio suddenly resigns for reasons of principle, he would be the first cabinet official of Trump’s second term to do so. It would be one of the biggest news stories of the year.
Having participated in presidential candidate debates in 2016, Rubio probably still sees himself as a potential President of the United States. If Rubio suddenly quit a few months down the road, he would gain favor from moderate Republicans, and perhaps even a small percentage of conservative Democrats. Plus, there are a lot of rank and file Republicans who are fed up with Trump’s chaos, but can’t see themselves voting for Democrats. Rubio has a 98+ percent voting rating from the American Conservative Union, during his years as a U.S. Senator. He would also be perceived by some as a guy who isn’t quite so bound to the failed past. Not a bad image for appealing to young conservative and moderate voters. Independents might also give him another look.
Of course, MAGA Republicans would be outraged if Rubio quit. But their numbers are slowly, but steadily evaporating, in part because of the Iran fiasco. Rubio could say that he always disagreed with the war, and now it is clear that Trump has no strategy or capability for bringing it to an end.
Rubio would be roundly denounced by Vance and other Trump loyalists, if he quits too early. But he would gain a fresh start, and be perceived as a credible presidential candidate for ’28. That’s not a bad perch on the shore from which to watch the last gurgles of the sinking ship.
What happens to Rubio’s prospects if he stays on for the duration of Trump’s term? It’s hard to see an upside for him. At best, Republicans lose the House of Representatives, but retain a small and shaky majority in the U.S. senate in November. At that moment, the ‘lame duck’ image kicks in, big time. Not a pretty picture for a sitting Secretary of State. Looking toward ’28, he might have some of the dwindling MAGAs, but little else as a base.
Trump may be more likely to endorse his son or Vance for the presidency in 2028, in which case Rubio would play Charley Brown to Trump’s Lucy holding the political football, a pathetic ending to a once-promising career. Some Republicans are hoping that Rubio is a bit smarter than that.
No matter what happens, polls indicate that Trump’s approval ratings are rapidly shrinking amid growing perceptions of his declining mental capacities and the Iran disaster. Does Rubio really want to anchor his prospects to that dismal reality? Don’t bet on it.
Rubio did not become Secretary of State for lack of political savvy. Yet, it may only be a matter of time before Trump decides to make Rubio his latest scapegoat/distraction. How long should Rubio hang around for that, when better alternatives beckon him toward a sunnier future? Democrats would do well to plan a strategy for that scenario.
