One of Donald Trump’s most oddly timed candidate endorsement makes you wonder again if he really wants to win the midterms, as I discussed at New York:

Two days into early voting in the Texas runoff that ends May 26 and after months of teasing his choice, Donald Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s primary challenge to four-term incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn on Truth Social. The post is mind-bogglingly long but makes it clear Trump deemed Paxton more loyal than Cornyn:

“John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough and, despite having the Most Successful Economy in the History of our Country during my First Term and, with all of the many other things that I accomplished (Secure Border, Military Dominance, Space Force, All Time High Stock Markets and 401(k)s, Record Job and Economic Growth, and so many other things that would be impossible to readily list!), which are considered by many to be legendary, John was very late in backing me in what turned out to be a Historic Run for the Republican Nomination, and then, the Presidency, itself, both of which were Landslide Victories and, more importantly, gave us the Country that we have today — THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA.”

Translation: Cornyn was neutral in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination contest until Trump essentially nailed it down with a victory in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Paxton is MAGA to the max:

“Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.”

This is a presidential allusion to the incredibly long list of allegations against Paxton’s character — involving charges of financial corruption and serial adultery — that have been the centerpiece of Cornyn’s wildly expensive battle to save his Senate seat. Trump’s message is that all this alleged misconduct is washed away by Paxton’s loyalty to the president himself.

Trump’s endorsement also likely washes away the vast resources Cornyn and his friends in the Republican Senate Conference and the Texas Republican establishment have devoted to this race. According to the Texas Tribune, Cornyn’s campaign and allied PACs have spent nearly $100 million on ads alone in the primary and runoff, dwarfing Team Paxton’s estimated $9 million. Despite that cascade of advertising, much of it aimed at painting Paxton as a despicable scoundrel, Paxton was running even with or ahead of Cornyn in most recent runoff polls. Trump’s endorsement is likely to clinch the nomination for the challenger.

This is a bitter blow not just to Cornyn, but to the many Washington- and Texas-based Republican strategists who have viewed Paxton as a uniquely vulnerable nominee in a general election race with squeaky-clean Democrat James Talarico. For months, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his associates begged Trump to endorse the incumbent to solidify the GOP’s odds of maintaining control of the chamber instead of offering up another target in a state where Democrats are overdue for a breakthrough. The very day after the March primary, in which Cornyn narrowly led Paxton, Trump indicated he would be endorsing a candidate “soon,” and most D.C. insiders thought that meant he’d come to Cornyn’s rescue. But to their great chagrin, the nod never arrived. And now the president is essentially administering a coup de grâce to the incumbent, whose main positive talking point was his 99 percent pro-Trump voting record in the Senate.

It’s unclear exactly why Trump waited so long to intervene in this contest. He could have saved a lot of people a lot of money had he put down Cornyn earlier and easier. Perhaps he wanted to see if the mountains of mud the two candidates threw at each other would stick to one more than the other. As it is, other than the endorsee, the main beneficiaries of this delayed endorsement are Talarico and the Democrats running for the Senate in other battleground states, where all that money wasted on Cornyn could have done the GOP a lot of good. Meanwhile, Cornyn’s Republican friends will have to go to the mats and dig deep into their pockets to lift to the Senate a pol most of them have regarded as an ethical and political disaster.