washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Beth Howard explains “How working-class white Southerners can help defeat MAGA: Rural whites can be fierce fighters for economic and racial justice — if they are welcomed by progressives” at Salon: “There’s a big misconception that poor white people are Donald Trump’s base. There’s so many images of “hillbillies,” “rednecks,” “white trash” and “trailer trash” used in the media to portray racism in this country, to make the case that poor white people in the South hold all of the racism in the entire nation. Many liberals like to say we are too ignorant and stupid to vote for candidates and issues that relieve our suffering. But during our work in rural North Georgia in the 2020 elections, we saw gains for the Democratic ticket in the poor white communities where Showing Up for Racial Justice, the antiracist organization I work for, called and knocked for the general and runoff elections, because we talked to them. We engaged people who are often ignored, abandoned and scapegoated around issues that matter to them, and they cast a vote against MAGA and for all working-class people…We had doors slammed in our faces, people who were tired of election talk, but we also had conversations with people who were proudly already with us and were excited we had knocked on their doors. All of these conversations, along with our partners’ work across the state, added up to Joe Biden making gains in Georgia in majority-white counties among whites without college degrees. Our collective work increased the voter turnout of the white Democratic voters who were the least likely to vote by 20%. By our calculations, In the runoff election for the Senate, which pitted Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock against Republican Kelly Loeffler, and Democrat Jon Ossoff against Republican David Perdue, rural voters and white voters with less education — a common but classist metric for the working class — turned out at higher rates for Democrats than they had in the presidential election. These were the people we called and the doors we knocked on.” More here.

“Vice President JD Vance’s support among lower‑income Republican voters has weakened significantly in recent months, according to a new poll,” Sam Stevenson writes in “JD Vance’s Support Tumbles Among Working Class Republicans” at Newsweek. “Surveys conducted by YouGov show that between January and April, Vance’s support among Republicans earning under $50,000 fell, mirroring a broader dip in his overall backing…Working‑class Republicans have long been central to Republican coalition‑building. A drop in support within this group raises questions about whether enthusiasm for Vance is softening as voters reassess potential 2028 contenders…In a YouGov survey conducted between January 9 and 14, 2026, 41 percent of respondents said they would ideally choose Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination…Support was even stronger among voters with family incomes under $50,000, where he captured 45 percent… The question was posed to Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. The poll surveyed 2,250 U.S. adult citizens and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, adjusted for weighting…A follow-up YouGov survey, conducted between April 8 and 13, showed that Vance’s overall support had dropped to 36 percent…Among respondents earning under $50,000, Vance’s backing slipped to 37 percent. That represents an eight‑point decline among lower‑income Republican‑leaning voters and a five‑point drop overall…In the April poll, 13 percent of respondents chose both Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio as their ideal choices; followed by Ron DeSantis on six percent; Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and Robert F Kennedy Jr. on two percent; and Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Glenn Youngkin on one percent each…”

In “2028 candidates will face a new kind of economic anger. Polls show cratering optimism as working-class voters try to prepare for the seismic changes ahead,” Connor Diamond-Yauman writes at Fast Company: “Election after election, Democratic strategist James Carville’s maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid!” has held true. But in coming political campaigns, candidates will encounter an especially virulent strain of economic anxiety—driven by artificial intelligence—that is proliferating among lower-wage, working Americans… AI’s advances are directly intersecting with Americans’ economic security. Candidates across parties, states, and offices will have to adapt to this new reality, quickly… New data show why. As AI reshapes the labor market and impacts individual economic prospects, these voters view it in increasingly dire terms. Merit America, the workforce development nonprofit that we co-lead, recently commissioned a national survey of more than 3,000 low-income Americans. The goal was to gauge their feelings about economic mobility, affordability, and AI…The upshot? Lower-wage Americans—those earning under $50,000 per year—hold a dim view of the rapid technological and economic change reshaping society. These voters not only feel unprepared, they feel that preparation is beyond their reach. And they do not believe that government or tech leaders are looking out for their interests…Seventy percent say they are not on track to achieve the American Dream, and 84% report delaying major milestones like buying a home or starting a family. A majority, 56%, believe they will have to change careers because of AI. But two-thirds also believe that higher education—the traditional path to a more stable career—fails to offer a good return on investment… If they had the power to do so, 70% say they would prefer to halt the development of any AI tools with the potential to eliminate jobs.” More here.

From “AARP Warns Americans On Major Social Security Problem” by Jeffrey Quiggle at The Street: “Retired Americans collecting Social Security benefits often anticipate the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in their monthly paychecks, which is designed to ensure their benefits don’t lose value as prices for everyday items rise due to inflation…In my reporting on this and other personal finance topics over the years, I’ve found that these adjustments are of vital concern to Social Security recipients as they budget for expenses…Immediately prior to 2026, AARP (the nonprofit organization that advocates for Americans over 50) made a prediction about the 2.8% increase that was on its way for the new year…And because of economic developments four months into 2026, that forecast is more than a little relevant…“The COLA’s impact on beneficiaries’ purchasing power will depend largely on inflation trends in 2026,” wrote AARP. “If inflation cools, the 2.8 percent benefit increase could provide retirees with a modest financial cushion.”…“But if prices continue to climb, the COLA may leave beneficiaries struggling to manage their expenses.”…On April 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which measures inflation…“In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted,” BLS wrote…At present, with inflation rising, the 2026 2.8% Social Security COLA appears to be worth less than hoped…That is shaping up to be a major problem for Social Security recipients.” Given the high voter turnout rate for seniors, that is sure to be a major political issue as well. More here.

One comment on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. William Benjamin Bankston on

    Weren’t the white Georgians Biden won the votes of mostly Northeastern cosmopolitans of the Atlanta suburbs?

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *