In “Democrats should capitalize by nominating a solid candidate,” Matt. K. Lewis of Tribune News Service shares some solid observations and advice for Democrats at Gulf Today, including: “Thanks in large part to President Donald Trump’s disastrous policies, Democrats have a decent shot at not just retaking the House, but maybe even flipping the Senate. Here’s the thing to know: Midterms are a referendum on the incumbent president. And this is especially true when the president is Donald Trump, who dominates every news cycle. He creates weather. He is, in short, always the issue. But what happens when Trump is gone? What happens when Democrats have to defend their record of leadership? What happens when the referendum is on them? Even now — as Dems appear to be surging — polling suggests that fewer than 40% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably. That’s not exactly a mandate…Yes, voters might choose Democrats as the lesser of two evils this November, but that doesn’t mean Americans are out there buying Democratic foam fingers. Not yet, anyway. It also doesn’t mean Democrats are technically competent. As I type this, the Republican National Committee currently has a 7-to-1 money advantage over Democrats. While Dems might win in 2026 in spite of all of their problems, a false sense of security would not bode well for 2028 — and beyond…Let’s start with the premise that Democrats cannot afford to be outflanked on populism again. That already happened once, and it was not their finest hour. Economic inequality is rising, and artificial intelligence threatens to widen that gap while disrupting millions of jobs. Meanwhile, the tech billionaires (who will profit handsomely from AI) are all lining up behind MAGA. Putting these tech bros on the ballot should be a no-brainer…The path forward is not especially mysterious, but it is very difficult. In the short term, Democrats can probably ride the blue wave. But in the long term, they need a standard bearer who can synthesize economic populism with mainstream American cultural credibility. The future may rest on whether that political savior ever arrives.”

Zachary Basu has some insightful comments about “Trump’s incredible shrinking tent” at Axios: “Trump’s war on his own coalition extends far beyond the pews.

• MAGA media: Trump has lashed out at the most powerful voices in the “America First” ecosystem, disavowing erstwhile allies for their criticism of his Iran war. The fallout is tearing through the broader MAGA media world, forcing influencers who’ve spent years in lockstep to publicly pick sides.
• Podcast populists: Trump’s 2024 campaign attracted a generation of young, nontraditional Republican voters who’d never pulled a lever for the party before. The Iran war, the Epstein files and suspicious trading activity tied to Trump announcements have shattered their fleeting trust in politicians.
• Crypto enthusiasts: Trump ran as the “crypto president,” and the industry poured millions into his campaign. A cascade of controversies — including crashing prices, meme coin “rug pulls,” and new allegations of self-dealing by the Trump family’s crypto venture — has left even true believers questioning whether they were ever anything more than marks.
• Farmers: Trump’s policies are hitting his rural base from every direction — tariffs that squeezed margins, deportations that thinned the farm labor force, trade tensions with China that sent soybean prices tumbling, and now an Iran war that’s sent fuel costs soaring.
• Nonwhite voters: Trump made historic inroads with Latino and Black men in 2024 on the strength of his economic message. Deep pessimism about the U.S. economy has rapidly unraveled those gains, with Trump’s approval among Latinos cratering to 22% in February, according to a CNN poll. Read more here.

Also at Axios, Andrew Pantazi reports that “Trump’s pope spat risks feud with crucial Catholic swing voters,” and writes: “President Trump followed a Holy Week of profanity-laced threats with attacks on Pope Leo XIV and posting an AI self-portrait as a Jesus-like figure — risking alienating Catholic swing voters who backed him in 2024…Why it matters: Catholics are America’s largest swing religious vote, and Trump’s support among them was already sliding before his latest attacks on their pontiff.

• Trump won Catholics by 10–20 points in 2024, depending on the exit poll, a dramatic swing from 2020.
• Now, he has used campaign-style rhetoric to attack their pope as a political enemy.
• “I cannot think of any parallels, at least coming from Western Christian majority countries, of such pointed and public attacks on the Pope,” Andrew Chesnut, Virginia Commonwealth University’s Catholic studies chair, tells Axios.

Catch up quick: Trump’s clash with Leo has been building, but it exploded over the Holy Week.

• Trump posted a profanity-laced Easter morning threat to Iran: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had urged Americans to pray for “overwhelming violence” against enemies, even as Pope Leo used his Easter Mass to call on “those who have weapons” to “lay them down.”
• Trump then threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight” in Iran. Leo called the threat “truly unacceptable.”

Driving the news: On Sunday, Trump called Leo “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy.”

• Trump also targeted the conclave itself, claiming Leo was chosen only because the church “thought that would be the best way to deal with” him.
• Minutes later, Trump posted an AI image depicting himself in biblical robes healing the sick. He deleted it Monday and claimed it depicted him “as a doctor.”
• Outside the Oval Office Monday, Trump doubled down on his criticisms of Leo: “There’s nothing to apologize for. He’s wrong.”

We’ll close out today’s edition of Strategy Notes with this chart, reposted from Kyle Kondik’s latest article at the Center for Politics, and invite readers to chew on it for a while and come to their own conclusions: