J. Miles Coleman puts “Another Big Night for Democrats: Tuesday’s Wisconsin and Georgia Results” in perspective at Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “In last night’s biggest race, Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor continued Wisconsin liberals’ streak of double-digit state Supreme Court election wins. While Taylor’s win over fellow Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar was unsurprising, her margin was on the upper end of what we might have guessed: Taylor was elected to the state’s high court by an almost exactly 60%-40% vote…Wisconsin liberals have now expanded their majority to 5-2 on the state Supreme Court and have won 5 of the 6 most recent races by double-digit margins. This also means they appear to be structurally well-positioned to maintain that advantage in the near term: Last month, Annette Ziegler, a conservative who recently served as chief justice of the court, announced that she would not seek a third term next year, so if this dynamic continues, liberals could flip another seat and get to a 6-1 majority a year from now. Liberals will not have to defend one of their own seats until 2028, when Rebecca Dallet’s seat will be up, and the state’s presidential primary may have an outsized bearing on that race…In northwestern Georgia, we were watching the runoff to replace now-former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14), who resigned as she went from being one of the president’s biggest advocates to one of his most vocal intraparty critics. Much like a pair of Florida special elections last year, Democrats posted an impressive overperformance, but the district’s baseline partisanship was just too red—Trump carried it by 37 points—for it to actually be flippable…In last month’s jungle primary—Georgia, like Texas, uses the system that Louisiana is known for when holding special elections—Marine veteran Shawn Harris (D) led the crowded field with a little over 37%. Clay Fuller, an Air Force veteran who had Trump’s backing, finished next, with 34%. Overall, Republicans outvoted Democrats by an underwhelming 60%-40% last month—a spread that was markedly down from the presidential margin and even worse than Taylor Greene’s two most recent performances in the district (likely because of her profile as a partisan bomb thrower, her margins were usually weaker than most Republicans there)…Overall, the 25-point 2024 to 2026 swing in GA-14 represented the biggest U.S. House-level Democratic special election overperformance of Trump’s second term, with one very minor caveat. According to a spreadsheet maintained by Ethan Chen, in last year’s TX-18 jungle primary, Democrats outvoted Republicans by 48.5% in this deep blue seat, representing a 28.4% swing from the 2024 presidential race.”

In “How the Iran War Will Upend the Global Economy. The Risk Is Not Just an Energy Shock—but Also a Debt Crisis,” Henry Tugendhat writes at Foreign Affairs: “Indeed, these strikes, along with the broader energy sector disruptions that have accompanied the U.S-Israeli war in Iran, have all but guaranteed an energy supply shock that will drive up inflation globally. Additional strikes on infrastructure that is critical to energy production and distribution would exacerbate such a crisis. This dynamic—excess demand for limited resources—is a classic driver of inflation. Almost immediately after the strikes, U.S. markets began betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve would increase interest rates, its most direct tool for fighting inflation. Amid an already challenging cost-of-living crisis, the American people willsuffer consequences: rate hikes will affect borrowing costs on expenses such as car loans and mortgages, increased energy prices will drive up the price of gas and other fuels, and manufacturers of the myriad goods on which people rely will pass higher production costs on to consumers…But inflation and decisions made by the Fed to fight it matter far beyond U.S. borders, as most countries’ outstanding debts are still denominated in U.S. dollars. This is equally true for those countries that have spent the past 20 years borrowing from China. Put simply, rising U.S. interest rates will determine the debt sustainability of numerous countries. Regardless of the outcome of this war, it’s already clear that many countries will have to pay more for the energy needed to fuel their industries, power their electric grids, and sustain their transportation networks.” More here.

At Talking Points Memo, Editor Josh Marshall shares “A Few Thoughts on Trump’s Pre-Deal with Iran,” and writes, “First, just because Donald Trump is an inveterate liar, don’t assume that Iran is a reliable narrator about anything that was agreed to in this deal. (Was there a deal? We’ll get to that.) One thing both sides explicitly agree on, coming right from President Trump himself, is that the 10 point Iranian plan will serve as the basis for discussions over the next two weeks. The early accounts of what that document included focused on a lot things Iran wants, even including things it wanted before the war broke out. It doesn’t really focus on the things the U.S. notionally got into this war for. (We’ll get in a moment to what’s included in the document Iran released today.) For the U.S., this ceasefire is at best a ceasefire on the basis of a stalemate, where the fight is about a draw and both sides want to see if they can bring the fight to an end…That’s the optimistic view. The U.S. has clearly been more eager to get to the negotiating table. It’s the U.S. that wants out most. The items on that list tilt heavily toward Iran. The Iranians appear to be exercising continued control of the Strait of Hormuz even if they may allow ships to go through — “allow” being the key word.” More here.

William A. Galston explains “Why affordability will be a key issue in the 2026 midterm elections” at Brookings: “Between 1999 and 2024, health care rose from 13% to 18% as a share of GDP, an increase that has serious consequences for family budgets. While wages rose by 119% during this period, workers’ contributions to family health care insurance premiums surged by 308%, almost three times the pace of wages. This increase was not the result of employers shifting the burden of health insurance to workers; the overall cost of insurance premiums rose even faster, by 342%—more than five times as much as the economy-wide rate of inflation. Since the pandemic began, the burden on average families has accelerated: Out-of-pocket expenses per person rose by nearly one-third, from $1,239 to $1,652, in just five years…Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that health care has risen to the top of Americans’ concerns about affordability. A recent survey found that 32% of respondents were “very worried” about health care costs, compared to 24% for food and groceries, 23% for rent or mortgage payments, 22% for utilities, and 17% for gas and other transportation…Because the problems of health care in the U.S. are structural and deeply rooted, the prospects for quick relief are not bright…The affordability issue has affected President Trump’s standing as well. Most Americans believe that his priorities do not align with theirs, and they want him to focus more on the bread-and-butter challenges they face every day. Whatever the merits of the president’s claim that he inherited these challenges, Americans reject it by a margin of 2-to-1. It is Mr. Trump’s economy now, and Americans want him to do more to fix it than he has so far.” More here.