From “Iran conflict could worsen America’s affordability crisis” by Courtenay Brown at Axios: “The Iran conflict abroad threatens to worsen the affordability crisis at home, as an oil price spike ripples through to pump prices Americans see every day…Why it matters: This has become one defining tension of President Trump’s second term — foreign policies that could undercut core domestic promises to lower prices for American consumers, just months ahead of midterm elections…That tension has been on display with global trade: Trump imposed steep import taxes aimed at leveling the trade playing field, but the result has been higher goods prices for consumer staples…The big picture: Gas prices have been a deflationary tailwind for Trump. Prices in January were down more than 7% from a year ago, putting downward pressure on overall inflation…Turmoil in the Middle East could reverse that trend, though it is still unclear how long any price surge will last, or how steep it might be…A $10 rise in crude prices translates into a spike of roughly 24 cents a gallon, according to RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas…Zoom in: Gas prices are plastered everywhere, making them the most powerful political and psychological signal about the cost of living. Any spike in prices would compound the pressure on Americans’ budgets and further sour their perceptions about the economy…For the past half-century, when gas prices rose consumers’ overall inflation expectations have followed suit. (That link broke down last year: gas prices declined but consumers still expected higher inflation as a result of high tariffs.)” More here.

E. J. Dionne, Jr. explains why “Why Trump’s Fearmongering Is Falling Flat With Voters” at The New York Times: In his State f the Union speech “Mr. Trump demonstrated something too often overlooked: He can win when he’s not the incumbent and can go on the attack (2016, 2024), but he leads his party to defeat when he has to govern and fails to deliver (2018, 2020)…The lesson for Democrats here is obvious: They need to get over their terror of Mr. Trump’s assumed magic and mastery — they’re ebbing — and their anxiety that the voters who decide elections share his contempt for so many of our fellow Americans. For the next eight months, Democrats must shelve their affection for gloomy self-analysis and needless arguments over which word to pick between “oligarchy” and “authoritarianism.”…Between now and November, their task is to keep the country focused on Mr. Trump’s failures on the issues that elected him: The economy (especially prices) and immigration. They are failures bred by what everyone outside the “Make America Great Again” base knows: Mr. Trump reserves his energies for his own interests and those of his allies. Everyone else — a majority of our fellow citizens — amounts either to an extra he occasionally brings onto the set for his performances or a villain he invokes to make himself the hero of the story.”

Dionne continues, “This is why the Democratic response to Tuesday’s speech, from Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, was in exactly the right key. She summed up this year’s midterm elections in three questions: “Is the president working to make life more affordable for you and your family? Is the president working to keep Americans safe — both at home and abroad? Is the president working for you?” That’s it. That’s the campaign. For good measure, Ms. Spanberger explained how voters can tell that Mr. Trump’s focus is not on working Americans. “Who benefits from his rhetoric, his policies, his actions and the short list of laws he’s pushed through this Republican Congress?” she asked. “He’s enriching himself, his family, his friends. The scale of the corruption is unprecedented.”…As important, she went straight at Mr. Trump’s cruelty, confident that most Americans don’t share it. She reframed the immigration debate in one sentence: “Our broken immigration system is something to be fixed — not an excuse for unaccountable agents to terrorize our communities.” Repair something that’s not working? Yes. Rip “nursing mothers away from their babies”? No.”

Dionne adds, “If there’s one thing Democrats in the center and on the left agree on, it’s that the party has to reverse its declines among working-class voters. Mr. Trump is making their job a lot easier. The president used to be quite good at hiding his solicitude toward the very wealthy who contribute to his political and personal coffers. Not anymore. How many clips and photos have you seen of Mr. Trump happily hobnobbing with the superrich? And how many with men and women toiling on assembly lines or in warehouses? His alignment with billionaires is so obvious that even his loyal white working-class supporters are beginning to break away…The left’s anti-oligarchy messaging is often seen as conflicting with the anti-authoritarian, pro-institution messaging of more moderate Democrats. But Mr. Trump is leading an increasingly authoritarian government dedicated, above all, to his own narrow interests and to those of very wealthy people who help him achieve his ends…To distract attention from this battle, Mr. Trump regularly tries to provoke hostility toward the groups he hates. Maybe he could pull it off if Americans were happier about the economy. But since so many feel let down, the message of his diatribes is that the only thing he can deliver after 13 months in office is fear itself. It’s a tired act. A presidency built on reruns is rapidly losing its audience.”