I certainly don’t make a habit of criticizing congressional Democrats, who have an especially difficult job right now. But their handling of the crisis over immigration enforcement really struck me as misguided, and I said so at New York:

A brief but loud partial shutdown of the federal government ended yesterday when just enough House Democrats joined Republicans in approving appropriations for a host of major departments, along with a ten-day stopgap spending bill for the Department of Homeland Security. Now, supposedly, the two parties will negotiate over the rules governing the immigration-enforcement activities DHS supervises, particularly through its lethal ICE and Border Patrol agents.

But nobody believes these negotiations will go anywhere. Here’s how Punchbowl News puts it:

“Is there any agreement that Republicans and Democrats could reach that makes some progress but leaves everyone a bit disappointed?

“Probably not.” 

Politico reports there’s “broad Republican opposition” to the kinds of restrictions on ICE that Senate Democrats have already proposed, which are themselves considered weak tea by many progressive Democrats, not to mention the grassroots activists who want ICE closed down forever. Meanwhile, there’s steadily increasing pressure in the GOP ranks to counter Democratic demands with proposals to crack down on “sanctuary cities” or to impose vast new “show your papers” requirements on people who want to vote in November to address imaginary widespread noncitizen voting.

If, as appears very likely, negotiations on immigration enforcement go nowhere or even go backwards by February 13, when the continuing resolution for DHS runs out, what then? Republicans are talking about another short-term CR, or even one that runs until October. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is saying “hell no” to that, and again, Punchbowl News reports there is “zero chance” of Senate Democrats supplying enough votes to just fund DHS under present levels until the end of the year. And in the meantime, MAGA Republicans will be tempted to sabotage any accommodation by attaching nativist poison pills to any DHS continuing resolution.

What all this means is that the partial government shutdown that ended yesterday will soon morph into just a DHS shutdown, while the two parties shout past each other about ICE and sanctuary cities. This will, it’s important to understand, have no effect whatsoever on immigration enforcement. ICE and the Border Patrol have access to an immense slush fund created by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which means that absent new legislation restricting their operations, they are free to continue their brutal treatment of immigrants and protesters. The brunt of a DHS shutdown will fall entirely on parts of other parts of DHS like FEMA, TSA, and the U.S. Coast Guard, all of which perform vital services unrelated to immigration enforcement. In that very likely scenario, Democrats will have achieved less than nothing from their decision to use appropriations to block or reform ICE.

It may perhaps be protested that Democrats have drawn new and powerful attention to the abuses of power being exercised by masked agents on the orders of Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem. But in truth, the whole world was already watching the terrible scenes from Minneapolis thanks to the courage of observers who recorded every nanosecond of the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, and of protesters around the world who made sure we didn’t avert our eyes. All congressional Democrats have done is to rush to the front of the parade of protesters and pretend they were doing something to stop the assault on Minneapolis. Perhaps continued public outrage and the likelihood of midterm-election consequences will convince the Trump administration to get a grip on its thugs and even ramp down mass deportation to less disruptive levels. But congressional Democrats will have little or nothing to do with it.

It’s hard for politicians to admit their powerlessness or acknowledge that empty gestures of defiance really do nothing to “stop Trump.” After the midterms, they may have the real ability to force changes of policy on the tyrant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. But for now, congressional Democrats are just noisy bystanders. They should recognize their limited role in the resistance to Trumpism and act more strategically.