In “Here’s Your Damn Playbook, Democrats: Party leaders can’t seem to process that Trump’s policies are in fact staggeringly unpopular. Minneapolis is showing politicians how it’s done” Aaron Regunberg writes at The New Republic: “You can see how Democrats got the wrong idea. When President Trump was sworn into his second term one year ago, it was not unreasonable for the opposition to feel somewhat cowed. Though his victory was narrow, Trump won the popular vote and made significant enough inroads into traditional Democratic constituencies—young people, people of color, working-class people—that his grandiose claims of a political realignment were arguably credible. That wasn’t an excuse to roll over—standing up to the regime was essential. But there was an argument for Democrats to be careful about picking their spots…A year later, things look very different. Trump’s approval ratings are dismal on everything from the economy to immigration; more than half of Americans say his policies have made life less affordable for them; and his support among young and nonwhite voters has cratered…Americans are seeing what ICE is doing, and they don’t like it. Pollingshows that a majority of Americans view ICE unfavorably and support restrictions on the agency…This is the kind of playing field in which a fight—which will drive further attention toward ICE’s abuses—is politically advantageous. (To be clear, this is a fight worth picking on principle, even if it’s not a political slam dunk—but the fact is, it’s both!)…As fragile and corrupt as our elite institutions have revealed themselves to be, the people in this country are demonstrating real resilience against Trump’s authoritarianism. This should inform our strategies of resistance moving forward.”

Some new polling charts, from Ariel Edwards-Levy at Bluesky:

Jennifer Rubin explains “How to Stop the Fascism: What we do after another DHS murder ” at The Contrarian: “The brutal execution of Alex Pretti on Saturday, coupled with Donald Trump and his minions’ defaming the victim, lying about the facts, asserting that lawfully carrying a weapon made him a legitimate target (!), and refusing to undertake a serious investigation should horrify all decent people…In the immediate aftermath of the last murder, Democrats, libertarian-minded Republicans such as Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), state and local leaders, and former military should warn against invocation of the Insurrection Act. On Friday, Vice President JD Vance, between lies (e.g., falsely blaming local officials for ICE-induced violence, whitewashing arrests without 4^th Amendment-required judicial warrants, falsely claim Minneapolis has the highest concentration of undocumented immigrants), acknowledged he did not think the Insurrection Act was “necessary.” What has changed on the ground since then? (Walz’s activation of state national guard to keep order may help keep Trump at bay.)…We should not think Trump is immune from public opinion or indifferent to atrocious polling. TACO Trump can be compelled to reverse himself (as he did regarding Greenland) when he runs into a buzzsaw of criticism and/or sees markets sink. Public outcry, driven by his overreach, can force his retreat…In the short run, Democrats can advance a batch of proposals, for example, to cut off funds to the Minneapolis deployment absent a request from the governor; limit CBP operations to the border (as used to be the case); require body cameras, immediate suspension of any agent after firing his/her weapon, and full cooperation with local and state authorities; eliminate masks; install an Inspector General to review all DHS actions and recommend policy and personnel changes; and ban arrests without a judicial warrant…Measures that even Republicans should be embarrassed to oppose — mandating that a parent or guardian must be present before children are taken into custody; ensuring protection of nonviolent First Amendment activities (including filming agents); and prohibiting agents from firing at moving vehicles and/or any person who does not pose an immediate threat to others — should garner bipartisan consensus…In short, the horror of DHS’s murders and lawless rampages must not be allowed to dissipate into the ether of nonstop Trump scandals. Minneapolis can be an historic inflection point, not only to disable Trump’s brutal immigration approach but to defeat his authoritarian project more broadly.”

Nathaniel Rakich ponders a worrisome question at Salon: “Trump regrets not calling up troops after the 2020 election. What stops him in 2026?,” and writes: “Regrets — we’ve all had a few. One of President Donald Trump’s, apparently, is not directing the National Guard to seize voting machines after the 2020 election in search of evidence of fraud…That revelation, part of a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times on Jan. 7, commands particular attention in a world where Trump has already sought to push the boundaries of his power, deploying the National Guard to multiple U.S. cities to crack down on protests and crime. The November midterms will be the first federal general election with Trump as president since that 2020 contest, and even before his comments to the Times, plenty of people were already worried that Trump would attempt to deploy the National Guard around the 2026 election…The National Guard isn’t necessarily the problem here; the Guard actually has a history of helping with election administration, such as when troops in civilian clothing helped fill in for absent poll workers during the pandemic in 2020. But many Democrats and election officials are worried that Trump could, say, send them to polling places to interfere with voting on Election Day. If troops were to take possession of voting machines or other equipment, it could break the chain of custody and invalidate scads of ballots. And if troops just show up outside polling places, even if they don’t try to impede the administration of the election, their presence could still intimidate voters…That’s a worst-case scenario. However, there are significant legal and practical barriers to Trump doing this.” Read more here.