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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Happy New Year! Welcome to Republican health care, in which “A KFF analysis last month found that people who buy insurance from the marketplace, and receive financial assistance, would see their premiums rise by about 114% on average, from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026,” Mary Kekatos writes at ABC News in her article, “ACA subsidies that lower monthly insurance premiums for millions of Americans set to expire: About 22 million Americans are currently receiving enhanced premium tax credits.” Further, “Eligibility for the subsidies can be determined by factors such as household income and geographic location…The subsidies were part of the original ACA passed during the Obama administration and were enhanced during the COVID-19 pandemic to increase the amount of financial assistance to those who were already eligible and to expand eligibility to more people…and many are preparing to see their premiums soar in 2026.” In November, “the Senate reached a bipartisan deal to end the shutdown — that deal did not include any of the Democratic demands on health care.” What begins today is Republican health care in its purest form. Kekatos adds that “Sources told ABC News that Republican leadership promised to allow a vote on a bill of Democrats’ choosing related to the ACA in December, but a pair of competing health care-related bills failed to advance in the [GOP-controlled] Senate earlier this month. “The ACA tax credits expire at midnight,” House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) wrote in a post on X Wednesday morning. “Millions will see their premiums skyrocket because Republicans refused to act. You deserve better, and Democrats will keep fighting to lower costs.”

In “Trump’s Economic Policies Did This’: US Business Bankruptcies Surge to 15-Year High: At least 717 US companies filed for bankruptcy through November 2025—the highest figure recorded since the aftermath of the Great Recession,” Jake Johnson writes at Common Dreams: “Businesses in the United States have filed for bankruptcy this year at a level not seen since 2010 as President Donald Trump’s tariff regime has jacked up costs for companies in manufacturing and other major sectors…Citing data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Washington Postreported over the weekend that at least 717 US companies filed for bankruptcy through November 2025, the highest figure recorded since the aftermath of the Great Recession and a 14% increase compared to the same period last year…“Companies cited inflation and interest rates among the factors contributing to their financial challenges, as well as Trump administration trade policies that have disrupted supply chains and pushed up costs,” the Post noted. “But in a shift from previous years, the rise in filings is most apparent among industrials—companies tied to manufacturing, construction, and transportation. The sector has been hit hard by President Donald Trump’s ever-fluid tariff policies—which he’s long insisted would revive American manufacturing.”…Recent data shows that the US has lost 49,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump’s return to office…The bankruptcy figures add to the growing pile of evidence showing that Trump’s tariffs and broader policy agenda have harmed the US economy—weakening job growth, driving the unemployment rate up to the highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, and worsening the nation’s cost-of-living crisis.”

Some insights from “Why Does Trump Get Away With It?” by Thomas B. Edsall at The New York Times: “How does Trump get away with doing things, repeatedly, that would have been disastrous for previous presidents — Republican and Democratic?…Neither the Republican administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush nor the Democratic administrations of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama would have survived intact if they and their families had started a multibillion-dollar business supported by foreign interests similar to the Trump Organization’s cryptocurrency operations or issued pardon after pardon to drug dealers, campaign contributors and political supporters on the scale Trump has engaged in.”  Edsall cites a number of reasons for Trump’s “stew of corruption,” including “The news media, which has become polarized into pro- and anti-Trump camps, effectively gutting its role as an enforcer of accountability…The liabilities of the opposition. Democratic overreach — encapsulated in the term “wokeness” — has severely damaged the party’s moral credibility, making it harder to criticize Trump productively…Structural frailty. American democracy and the Constitution are not equipped to deal in an effective and timely manner with a president who aggressively and willfully tramples the law…The Supreme Court’s conservative majority. The court has, with some recent exceptions, failed to fulfill its role as enforcer of restraints. The majority’s support of the unitary executive theory, combined with such rulings as Trump v. United States, has effectively approved presidential criminality…A supine Republican Party. Republican majorities in the House and Senate have abandoned all semblance of institutional and constitutional integrity, passively allowing Trump to wrest away their powers over taxing and spending, turning Congress into a collection of sycophants.”

One more little bite of good electoral news from “Democrat wins Iowa state Senate race, blocking GOP from regaining supermajority” by Julia Mueller  at The Hill: “Democrat Renee Hardman won a special election for state Senate in Iowa on Tuesday, preventing Republicans from regaining a supermajority in the chamber, Decision Desk HQ projects…Hardman, the West Des Moines mayor pro tempore, defeated Republican Lucas Loftin to fill the seat that has been vacant since state Sen. Claire Celsi (D) died in October…Her victory denies Republicans a two-thirds majority in the upper chamber, which would have given them the power to override a governor’s veto, call for special sessions and approve a governor’s appointees on a party-line vote… With Hardman’s win, Iowa Democrats are closing out the year strong. Back in January, Democrat Mike Zimmer flipped an Iowa state Senate district that had overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2024. And in August, Democrat Catelin Drey flipped another open state Senate seat, breaking the GOP supermajority…Her win is also the last in a string of notable victories for the party nationwide. Democrats most recently saw success in a special election for a state Senate seat in Kentucky. Prior to that, the party overperformed in a special election in Tennessee. And Democrats had a better-than-expected election in November, when they overwhelmingly won the governors’ mansions in New Jersey and Virginia, the mayor’s office in New York City, and a number of other notable downballot races…DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. “With the last special election of the year now decided, one thing is clear: 2025 was the year of Democratic victories and overperformance, and Democrats are on track for big midterm elections.”

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