At Newsweek, Andrew Stanton assesses “Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the House From Republicans in 2026,” and writes: “Democrats are favored to retake control of the U.S. House of Representativesheading into 2026—but the size of their possible majority remains an open question, according to recent polling…Redistricting could also play a role in the outcome of the House. Republicans in Texas redrew their map to create more conservative-leaning seats, kicking off a redistricting arms race. California retaliated, creating more seats with a Democratic lean. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio have also redrawn their states to create a map more favorable to Republicans. Utah, meanwhile, was ordered to create a new Democratic-leaning district based around Salt Lake City…A recent poll from YouGov and The Economist showed Democrats up about three points among registered voters (43 to 40 percent). It surveyed 1,424 registered voters from December 20-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points…However, an AtlasIntel poll was more favorable to Democrats. It showed Democrats up about 16 points (54 to 38 percent), surveying 2,315 adults from December 15-19. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points…A Fabrizio Ward poll showed Democrats leading by seven points on the generic ballot (45 to 38 percent). It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from December 15-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points…Meanwhile, a Quantus Insights poll showed a closer race—giving Democrats only a two-point lead (43 to 41 percent). It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from December 15-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points…There are five Democratic-held seats considered toss-ups—those held by Representative Adam Gray of California; Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico; Laura Gillen of New York; Greg Landsman of Ohio; and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state…Twelve GOP-held seats are viewed as toss-ups. Those include the seats held by retiring Representative David Schweikert of Arizona; Juan Ciscomani of Arizona; David Valadao of California; Darrell Issa of California; Gabe Evans of Colorado; Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa; Tom Barrett of Michigan; Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey; Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania; Scott Perry of Pennsylvania; Jen Kiggans of Virginia; and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.”

“Most Americans now connect the worsening climate crisis with their cost of living pressures, with clear majorities also disagreeing with moves by the Trump administration to gut climate research and halt windfarms, new polling has found,” Oliver Milman writes at The Guardian. “About 65% of registered voters in the US think that global heating is affecting the cost of living, according to the polling by Yale University…Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, storms and heatwaves, exacerbated by the climate crisis, are taking a toll on food production, with recent spikes in the cost of coffee and chocolate blamed by experts, at least in part, on global heating…Meanwhile, many Americans have faced rising home electricity costs and steep increases in home insurance premiums, with both of these areas also influenced by the climate crisis and the Trump administration’s decision to choke off solar and wind power, often the cheapest source of energy…There has also been a broad backlash in many communities against new datacenters, which have been championed by the administration and the tech industry for advancing artificial intelligence but attacked by critics for causing planet-heating emissions and raising power bills…The US, unlike most other industrialized countries, remains highly polarized in its consideration of the climate crisis. While the Yale poll found that 59% of voters would prefer to back a candidate who supports action on climate, this number is skewed by the overwhelming majority of Democrats who want this.” More here.

From “Americans Hate AI. Which Party Will Benefit?” by Calder McHugh at Politico: ” It’s become a common occurrence: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer posts a light-hearted video on social media. She’s Christmas shopping, or she’s talking about her Michigan accent or she’s touting her administration’s accomplishments. And immediately, the comments start rolling in, all demanding the same thing: Say no to data centers in the state. Stop construction. “All I want for Christmas is legislation banning data centers in Michigan.”…National figures in the party are beginning to notice the anger. What began on the ground with widespread protests against the facilities that provide infrastructure for the growth of artificial intelligence is finding its way into new plans, memos and rhetoric as the Democratic Party thinks about how to win in 2026 and 2028…It’s an argument that began in the progressive wing but is increasingly finding purchase across the party: Be proudly, loudly, without reservations, anti-AI. It’s not enough, these pollsters, consultants and elected officials say, to caution, minimally regulate and signal a friendly stance toward tech companies building AI. There is a massive, growing opportunity for Democrats to tap into rising anxiety, fear and anger about the havoc AI could wreak in people’s lives, they say, on issues from energy affordability to large-scale job losses, and channel it toward a populist movement — and not doing it, or not doing it strongly enough, will hurt the party…“The contrast is so obvious. On one side there’s the billionaires, and on the other side there’s everyone else,” said Lakshya Jain, the co-founder of the polling firm Split Ticket and the head of political data at the publication The Argument. “I think [Democrats] should be bolder. A lot of tech companies have a lot of power, and they have a lot of capital and economic influence. But politically speaking, you can go a lot harder on economic populism. The public wants to see something bold on costs.” More here.

In “Warning signs for Trump as approval hits new low among working-class Americans,” Durva More writes at msn.com: “The U.S. President Donald Trump is facing new warning signs as his approval rating among working-class Americans has fallen to very low levels. The drop comes as many voters continue to struggle with high prices and everyday costs, which may hurt Trump’s party in future elections. A new YouGov/Economist poll shows that only 31 percent of Americans earning $50,000 or less approve of Trump’s job as president…In the same income group, 65 percent disapprove, while 4 percent said they were unsure. Newsweek said it contacted the White House by email to ask for a response to the poll results. Working-class voters narrowly supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, based on exit polls. This support was a big shift, as working-class voters had moved away from Republicans in recent years…Democrats are using the high cost of living to get more support from voters. Some Republicans fear these money problems could hurt their party in the next midterm elections. A YouGov/Economist poll asked about 1,600 adults between December 20 and 22, with a small margin of error. Trump’s net approval rating among working-class Americans is now -34 points. This is worse than the November poll, when his net rating among this group was -28 points…In the latest survey, only 29 percent of people earning under $50,000 said the country is going in the “right direction.” At the same time, 61 percent of lower earners said the U.S. is on the “wrong track.” Higher-income Americans were slightly more positive about the country’s direction. Among those earning over $100,000, 40 percent felt optimistic about the country. In that same higher-income group, 51 percent felt pessimistic and 9 percent were unsure…On jobs and the economy, only 32 percent of working-class respondents approved of Trump’s handling. Meanwhile, 58 percent disapproved, including 48 percent who disapproved strongly, as noted by Newsweek report. These results match other recent signs of growing economic worry across the country. The Conference Board said overall consumer confidence has fallen for five months in a row. The confidence index is now at its lowest level since April.” More here.