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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

In “Republican Conundrum: Working-Class Base, Plutocratic Agenda,” Harold Meyerson writes at The American Prospect: “The anxiety among Republican elected officials is palpable, as well it should be…In the House, a number of their representatives from swing districts, confronted with the prospect of their constituents losing their health insurance on January 1, are still trying to craft some kind of legislation that both preserves government health insurance programs (required if they’re to be re-elected) and diminishes government health insurance programs (required to accord with basic Republican ideology). That this can’t be done merely confirms the Republican inability, after a decade and a half, to craft an alternative to the Affordable Care Act…A separate discharge petition, which reached the required number of 218 signatures via the backing of all House Democrats and a smattering of Republicans, compelled a House vote, also last Thursday, on a measure to restore the collective-bargaining rights of roughly one million federal employees, which President Trump had abolished by executive order, despite the ongoing contracts the government had with the workers’ unions. The measure passed by a 231-to-195-vote margin, with 20 House Republicans joining all House Democrats in the majority…Trump had justified the withdrawal of those rights by stating that unionization could impede work related to national security. No one actually believed that the workers who mop the floors in federal office buildings—the very kind of workers who lost their bargaining rights due to Trump’s orders—engage in work that would compromise national security if it’s unionized; indeed, workers at agencies that actually are related to national security, like the CIA, have always been expressly forbidden from unionizing.” More here.

Every country is unique. But what happens in the U.K. is of more than casual interest to American political analysts, when it comes to figuring out trends among working class voters. So, check out “English voters scatter from the center, strengthening extremes” by Mark Sappenfield, who writes at the Christian Science Monitor: “Britain is perched on the precipice of historic political upheaval. Half of Britons want “radical change,” according to a November poll by Ipsos. In its “Shattered Britain” study, opinion research firm More in Common says many British voters have reached a “roll the dice” moment. For a nation where the traditional political order – dominated by the Conservatives and Labour – has had the constancy of the cliffs of Dover, everything appears chaotically uncertain…For now, the Labour government retains a large majority in Parliament, thanks to its 2024 landslide election victory. But the speed of the party’s collapse in the polls is unprecedented, political scientists say. Its support among voters now sits at 18%, Ipsos finds…The biggest winner so far has been the far-right Reform UK Party, which is polling at 33%. But the story of England’s political transformation goes deeper. For the first time ever, five parties are polling at over 10%, with a sixth trying to elbow its way in. It speaks to a crumbling of the old order as voting blocs that have held firm for generations fracture into new configurations, desperately seeking change…The picture is broadly similar across the United Kingdom, but England’s political dynamics are distinct from those of the U.K.’s other nations, due to its lack of separatist parties such as Plaid Cymru in Wales and the Scottish National Party. Moreover, the rise of English nationalism points to a uniquely English element of these political trends…Similarly, Britain’s challenges are similar to those seen across Europe: a stagnant economy, rising stress on social services, and growing public debt. But Britain has a unique added variable: Brexit, which took effect just as the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to wreak havoc on the world economy. Combine that with a puzzling and persisting drop in worker productivity, and the country has never recovered…Previous Conservative governments responded with cuts and austerity. The 2024 election was more a resounding rejection of that path than a true win for Labour, political experts argue. Now, Labour is largely treading water hoping for economic growth – which hasn’t come – and adopting tough anti-immigrant policies to try to attract centrist voters…But that appears to be part of the problem. Is Labour is trying to win over voters who are disappearing?”

From “Pushing Democrats to move beyond resistance: Rural Americans — and a Rural New Deal — could be the key to a new wave of economic populism” by Christopher D. Cook at Salon: “Although Donald Trump won a whopping 63% of rural American voters in the 2024 presidential election — up from 60% in 2020 — his approval ratings in the countryside are plunging amid the economic chaos and uncertainty caused by his tariffs, rising food prices and other concerns. Farmers are suffering huge losses even as their costs keep rising, and farm bankruptcies have increased by 56% from 2024…Working-class Americans, another key source of Trump’s presidency, are struggling under the weight of soaring costs, layoffs and manufacturing job losses, and his evisceration of worker protections. Unemployment keeps rising, now at its highest since September 2021 amid the Covid-19 meltdown. Rural coal miners, many of whom voted for Trump, protested the president recently for failing to enforce black lung protections even as more (and increasingly younger) miners die from the disease. Many rural Trump voters have expressed buyer’s remorse over the Department of Government Efficiency gutting protections for public lands, parks, wildlife and other conservation enforcement…Could these working-class and rural Americans be the key to toppling Trump’s reign of destruction — and delivering economic justice and equity? Could a movement of progressive populists, independents and rural communities go “beyond resistance” and help spur a new wave of economic populism?…there is surging evidence that voters are restless and hankering for mold-busting politics offering bold populist messages and discarding the party establishment’s dreary attachment to corporate power and the status quo…At the “Beyond Resistance” launch, Dustin Guastella, research associate at the Center for Working-Class Politics, urged for a meaningful reconnection with rural and working-class America. “A lot of union and working-class voters who’ve drifted toward Trump won’t be won back by a message of resistance and how evil Trump is,” he said. Rural and working-class voters “want a better economic system that values the work they do.”

“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday he remains confident that Congress will extend expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits despite persistent opposition from Republican,” Jacob Wendler reports in “Hakeem Jeffries says Obamacare subsidy extension ‘will pass with a bipartisan majority‘” at Politico. “In a Sunday morning interview with ABC’s Jonathan Karl on “This Week,” Jeffries dismissed Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s remarks that a clean three-year extension of the credits would be dead on arrival in the Senate, saying Thune “is not serious about protecting the health care of the American people.”…“It will pass, with a bipartisan majority, and then that will put the pressure on John Thune and Senate Republicans to actually do the right thing by the American people: pass a straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits so we can keep health care affordable for tens of millions of Americans who deserve to be able to go see a doctor when they need one,” Jeffries said…“As Democrats, we’re promising to focus relentlessly on driving down the high cost of living, to make life more affordable for everyday Americans, and to fix our broken health care system, which Republicans have been damaging in an extraordinary way throughout the year, including by enacting the largest cut to Medicaid in American history,” he said.”

One comment on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. Victor on

    Nothing will fundamentally change in Democratic politics as long as we don’t even know who is funding the party.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/us/politics/harris-trump-dark-money-democrats-republicans.html

    “Future Forward USA Action, the so-called dark-money group of the main super PAC backing Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Kamala Harris, took in a staggering $613 million from donors last year.

    Strikingly, $515 million of the $613 million raised overall came from just the 10 largest donations, the biggest of which was for $97.5 million from an unidentified person or group.”

    Reply

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