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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Joey Garrison shares “Key takeaways as Democrats overperform in Tennessee special election” at USA Today: “Van Epps, a combat veteran and former state government official, defeated Behn, a liberal Democratic state representative by 9 percentage points, 54%-45%, in a Middle Tennessee district Trump carried by 22 points in the 2024 presidential election. He will replace retired Rep. Mark Green, R-Tennessee…That amounts to a sizable 13-point swing in Democrats’ direction, continuing a pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections this year…In five other special elections to fill U.S. House vacancies this year, Democrats overperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris‘ 2024 election performance by 17 points (Arizona’s District 7), 23 points (Florida’s District 1), 16 points (Florida’s District 6), 28 points (Texas’s District 18), and 17 points (Virginia’s District 11)…Republicans have publicly downplayed the shift in Tennessee, arguing the outcome wasn’t as close as some polls suggested. But the larger trend is a troubling sign for Republicans as they look to hold on to their current 219-213 House majority in 2026…At the same time, Democrats are growing more convinced a double-digit swing in the electorate nationally can put into play a Democratic takeover of the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority…Republican efforts to nationalize the race paid off in Tennessee’s deeply conservative District 7, but the same formula is unlikely to work in a swing district where Trump is less popular. Trump’s approval rating has dropped nationally to a second-term low 36%, according to a Gallup poll released Nov. 28.” More here.

“The share of Americans who say they follow the news all or most of the time has decreased since 2016, according to nearly a decade’s worth of Pew Research Center surveys,” Naomi Forman-Ketz reports at Pew Research. “This shift comes amid changes in the platforms people use for news and declining trust in news organizations,” … As of August 2025, 36% of U.S. adults say they follow the news all or most of the time. That is down from 51% in 2016, the first time we asked this question…In turn, growing shares of Americans say they follow the news less closely.

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