In understanding how Republicans will deal with the overriding issue of the 2026 midterms, “affordability,” it helps to know their ideological habits, as I discussed at New York:

One of the odder moments in Donald Trump’s big Oval Office “affordability” speech on December 17 was toward the end, when he asserted that mass deportation of immigrants would greatly improve the economy. “We are now seeing reverse migration as migrants go back home, leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans.” The idea seemed to be that a major instrument of the administration’s economic strategy was those masked ICE and Border Patrol agents getting rid of the foreigners draining our resources.

This is a theme that Trump may have borrowed from his vice-president, as Politico’s Ian Ward explains after looking at some of J.D. Vance’s recent speeches:

“At an event in Allentown, Pa. this week, Vance argued that the rise in housing and rental costs — an issue that’s increasingly rankling Republican voters — is being driven primarily by illegal immigration. ‘It’s simple economics. If you have fewer people, fewer illegal aliens trying to buy homes, that means American citizens are going to finally be able to afford a home again,’ the vice president said.

“He has taken the same approach to the increasingly thorny issue of healthcare, arguing during a White House press briefing in October that lengthy wait times at hospital emergency rooms are being caused by ‘illegal aliens’ who ‘get healthcare benefits at hospitals paid for by American citizens.’ Ditto for the decline of blue-collar wages, which Vance has recently attributed to ‘the Democrat model’  of ‘import[ing] low-wage immigrants.’ He’s even suggested that the rise of antisemitism — an issue that has bitterly divided the right in recent months — is being caused by the influx of foreign-born people who bring high levels of ‘ethnic grievance’ with them.”

Offering a simple, uniform explanation for complicated problems the Trump administration is visibly struggling to address is a nice rhetorical device for Vance. But it has two other advantages. First, Team Trump has reason to believe immigration policy remains its strongest issue. According to Silver Bulletin’s polling averages for Trump’s job-approval ratings on handling specific issues, he’s not doing that well on much of anything, but immigration is a relative bright spot. His net approval on immigration policy is at minus-7.3 percent, compared to minus-17.1 percent on trade policy, minus-17.9 percent on the economy, and minus-27.6 percent on inflation. Since there’s zero question in anyone’s mind that the administration is working hard to shut down the border and deport undocumented immigrants, claiming this will help address economic problems makes more sense than talking about Trump policies that are actively unpopular, like his love for tariffs and his cluelessness about health care.

Second, as Ward emphasizes, treating deportation of immigrants as the key to multiple problems shifts attention from policy disputes that divide Republicans and Trump’s MAGA base to an issue on which they enthusiastically agree:

“[I]t’s starting to look like part of an emerging strategy for coalitional management. Confronted with an issue that divides MAGA, Vance responds by reminding Republicans of what unites them: namely, support for immigration restriction.”

Divisions on economic policy between “populists” and Trump’s billionaire backers on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley are a growing problem for Republicans. Meanwhile, conservative allegations of antisemitism against America First zealots have split Vance’s own personal base, as evidenced by tensions between his close friends Tucker Carlson and the Christian Zionists at Turning Point USA. All these warring tribes can agree that getting rid of immigrants is a righteous task. And this is especially important to Vance, who is covering Trump’s flanks as vice-presidents traditionally do, and who also needs a strong MAGA coalition backing him if he wants to step up to the presidency in 2028. J.D. Vance is never going to have a cult of personality like Trump’s. But he can become a unity figure in the party and movement he may someday lead, as Ward observes:

“Vance seems to be betting that opposition to immigration remains the one stance that can unite a movement that is otherwise divided over economics, foreign policy, tech and AI policy, healthcare, the Epstein disclosures and more. Linking these more divisive issues back to immigration offers one strategy for smoothing over the fault lines.”

So get used to regular celebrations of mass deportation as the key to ensuring American Greatness.