As part of my usual efforts to make sense of each political year, I took a look at Trump’s job approval numbers for the year at New York, and it wasn’t hard to find a trend:
While Donald Trump’s claims of a landslide victory and a huge mandate in 2024 were always ridiculous, he did begin his second term with some of the highest job-approval ratings he’s ever had as president. Per Gallup, he never hit 50 percent job approval during his first term, but Silver Bulletin’s refined polling averages showed him at 51.6 percent the day after his second inauguration. With a disapproval rating of 40 percent, that gave him a double-digit positive net approval rating of 11.6 percent. His net approval stayed positive until early March, going underwater on March 12 and staying there the rest of the year.
Trump’s popularity took a big plunge in April around the time he imposed his “Liberation Day” tariffs. It recovered modestly through June and then began a steady decline that reached its nadir around Thanksgiving, when his net approval hit minus-15 percent (41.2 percent approval, 56.2 percent disapproval). He has seen a slight improvement in the month since, but as of December 23, his job-approval average at Silver Bulletin stands at 42.1 percent with disapproval at 54.3 percent.
At this point in 2017 during Trump’s first term, Gallup had his job approval at 36 percent, precisely where Gallup shows him today. On this date in 2021, Joe Biden’s job-approval rating per Gallup was at 43 percent. The only post–World War II president to match Trump’s current poor job approval at this point in his presidency was Trump in his first term.
Obviously, Trump has always had a polarizing effect on Americans. But Silver Bulletin’s tracking of strong approval versus strong disapproval shows the latter consistently ahead in much of 2025, matching the general erosion of Trump’s popularity. At present, 25.2 percent of Americans strongly approve of his job performance, and 44.1 percent strongly disapprove.
Since June, Trump has been underwater in assessments of his job performance on all four major issues tracked by Silver Bulletin’s polling averages. His net approval is currently at minus-8.3 percent on immigration, minus-20.5 percent on trade, minus-21.3 percent on the economy, and minus-28.8 percent on inflation.
Unsurprisingly, specific polling outlets have different takes on Trump’s popularity. But overall, the downward 2025 trend shows up nearly everywhere. Rasmussen Reports (long a Trump favorite) has a daily tracking of presidential job approval that showed his net approval as positive or roughly neutral for two-thirds of the year with a decided downward swing in autumn. As of December 23, Rasmussen has the president’s job approval at 44 percent positive and 54 percent negative. Raz also measures strong approval versus strong disapproval, currently placing the former at 29 percent and the latter at 44 percent. Perhaps a more alarming trend is evident in the highly reputed AtlasIntel findings, which had Trump’s net job approval at minus-5 percent as recently as September but shows him at minus-20 percent in mid-December. One traditionally pro-GOP pollster, InsiderAdvantage, has shown Trump’s net job approval as positive all year long. More typical has been Fox News, which placed the president’s net job approval at single-digit negative levels for most of 2025 but then showed it lurching downward to minus-17 percent in mid-November and minus-12 percent in mid-December.
Tracking presidential job approval by party affiliation is difficult due to differences in ways of determining such affiliation. But Gallup’s monthly polling is typical in showing Trump only modestly losing ground with self-identified Republicans over 2025. He was at 91 percent during Inauguration Week and still at 89 percent in December, though there was a dip to 84 percent in November. But among self-identified independents, Trump’s approval rating was at 46 percent during Inauguration Week and is at 25 percent in December.
How will Trump’s loss of popularity affect the 2026 midterm elections? It won’t help, obviously, if he continues to lose ground. Gallup showed his 2018 job-approval rating at 39 percent in January and 40 percent in November, when his party lost 41 House seats. But the usual low-turnout midterm electorate is slightly less aligned with overall public opinion than the high-turnout presidential electorate. Another factor is that while Trump has been and remains unpopular, the Democratic Party’s approval ratings aren’t great either (though typically midterms are referenda on the president’s party more than choices between competing parties).
The polling number that most corresponds to midterm vote intentions is the so-called generic congressional ballot, which simply asks respondents which party they want to control the U.S. House of Representatives. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages, Democrats currently lead on the generic ballot by 3.7 percent. Decision Desk HQ’s averages put the Democratic advantage at 5.3 percent. The two parties were very nearly tied on the generic ballot prior to the 2024 election, in which Republicans eked out the fragile House majority they still have today.
Unexpected things could happen that might change the currently strong odds that Democrats will at least flip the House and make gains in the Senate. With gerrymandering still underway, we don’t even know exactly what the landscape will look like. But Trump is more likely to be a drag on his party than a boon based on everything we know about public attitudes toward him over time. He’s just not a very popular politician, and those who love him fiercely get just one vote.
