An excerpt from “Democrats are defying the conventional wisdom on government shutdowns: Democrats took a big gamble on the government shutdown — and polls suggest they have a surprisingly strong hand so far” by Zeeshan Aleem at MSNBC.com: “Political scientists and polling experts have pointed out that in previous government shutdowns (or near shutdowns) the party that tries to leverage the government’s closure for a policy win typically loses the battle of public opinion. But recent polling data suggests that Democrats are, at least for now, looking unusually strong in their quest to force Republicans to make concessions on health care policy…During past shutdowns or near-shutdowns, voters have typically blamed the party not in the White House — except for when Trump himself instigated a shutdown in late 2018. This time, the polls look different. A Washington Post pollconducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that the Democrats were looking strikingly strong: 47% of U.S. adults blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blamed Democrats and 23% said they weren’t sure. Part of that margin was because the share of Democrats blaming Trump and Republicans (87%) was larger than that of Republicans blaming Democrats (67%). But political independents were also more than twice as likely to say Trump and Republicans were to blame for the shutdown than Democrats, 50% to 22%…To be clear, this survey was conducted on the very first day of the shutdown. If the shutdown extends for a long time and more government services shutter, it is possible that public sentiment will shift against Democrats. But that starting margin in that poll suggests Democrats have some room to breathe.”

Read “Democrats see a path to flipping the crime debate: Democrats say new polling gives them a roadmap to neutralizing one of Republicans’ advantages” by Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker at Politico. Kashinsky and Booker write that “Democrats are pushing their candidates to go on the offense on crime ahead of the 2026 midterms, seeing upside in what’s been one of their weakest electoral issues…A private polling memo that shows potential openings for the party to peel voters away from Republicans on one of their core issues is being distributed to House Democrats and their campaign committees, and was shared exclusively with POLITICO…The battleground-district survey from Global Strategy Group — commissioned by gun-safety advocacy group Giffords and House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership — offers a bleak assessment of Democrats’ starting point: 89 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed want their Congress member to take steps to keep them safe, but only 38 percent trust Democrats over Republicans with that task…Voters also reported preferring Republicans to Democrats with preventing and reducing crime and cracking down on violent crime — gaps that grew among swing voters…But, in a hint of hope for the party looking to neutralize a weakness President Donald Trump will exploit next year, those voters swung toward Democrats in all four categories after hearing messaging acknowledging crime is a problem and showing steps the party has taken to increase safety. Specifically, pollsters cited cracking down on gun trafficking and strengthening firearm background checks. The persuasion effort included criticisms of GOP cuts to gun-violence prevention funding, the Trump administration’s attempts to roll back firearm regulations and Republicans’ ties to pro-gun groups…The double-digit swings gave Democrats a 2-point advantage when respondents were asked about crime reduction, 4 points on keeping people safe and 6 points on crime prevention. The shifts were even more pronounced among swing voters…” More here.

There is good news for Dems about 2025’s most important election, from “New poll shows Abigail Spanberger with a double-digit lead in Virginia’s governor race” by WTOP Staff at WTOP News: “The Washington Post/Schar School poll found Spanberger ahead of Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 points among likely voters — 55% to 43%…Spanberger also holds a 13-point advantage among registered voters overall…This poll, conducted last week and surveying more than 1,000 registered voters in Virginia, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.” The article quotes Scott Clement, polling director for The Washington Post, who notes: “Spanberger is benefiting from a few things. One, most voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance in Virginia and this is a really common pattern in Virginia the year after presidential election that tends to push back against the president, sort of an early warning sign of the midterms. Down to the actual voters. Voters have a lot of different concerns. But one of the big patterns helping Spanberger is she has a big lead among political independents, 27 percentage points. She’s also more popular than Winsome Earle-Sears personally. So she’s got a couple things at her back…It’s a wide lead and we’ve seen these races tighten sometimes in the final month, not always getting back to a full comeback. But it’s a significant lead. If it holds to election day, would be one of the larger victories for governor in Virginia…We asked people to rate how important Trump was in their vote for governor, and you had a big majority saying that it was at least fairly important in their vote. It was particularly important for people who disapprove of Trump, but also for people who approve. And we asked the same question eight years ago during the governor’s election, then and more people say that Trump is important to their vote today than they did eight years ago. So it seemed very high at the time. It’s even higher this time around.”

Also check out “Americans favor Republicans on key issues, but prefer Democrats to control next Congress” by Alex Tyson at Ipsos.com, who writes: “Americans trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party to better handle issues like the economy, immigration and crime, according to a new Washington Post/Ipsos poll. And when it comes to the parties’ ideological positions, 54% describe the Democratic Party as “too liberal,” compared with a somewhat smaller share (49%) who describe the views of the Republican Party as “too conservative.”…Nonetheless, the survey finds that by a 53% to 42% margin, Americans would rather see the next Congress controlled by Democrats to “act as a check on Trump” rather than controlled by Republicans “to support Trump’s agenda.”…The poll also explores views of executive power and finds that 62% of Americans believe President Trump has “gone beyond his authority” since taking office.” Further,

• Just over half of Americans say the views of the Democratic Party are “too liberal” (54%), compared with a smaller share (31%) who describe the party’s views as “about right.” Relatively few (12%) describe the Democratic Party as “too conservative.”
• When it comes to the Republican Party, 37% view their issue positions as about right. Still, the most commonly held view among Americans is that the GOP’s positions are “too conservative” (49%). Just 10% say they are “too liberal.”
• A majority of Americans say Donald Trump has exceeded his authority as president and large shares say the Trump administration should follow federal court rulings. President Trump’s overall job ratings remain steady with 43% expressing approval.
  • Overall, 62% of Americans say Donald Trump has gone beyond his authority as president, while 36% say he has acted within his authority since taking office. In comparison, 34% say that former President Joe Biden went beyond his authority when he was president, while 63% say he acted within his authority.
  • With federal courts reviewing a number of cases involving the Trump administration, 87% of Americans say the administration should follow court rulings if they determine the administration has acted illegally. Just 11% of Americans think the administration should ignore such rulings.
  • About three-in-ten (31%) rate the state of the nation’s economy as excellent or good, while 68% rate it as not so good or poor. The percentage of Americans rating the economy positively is slightly higher than previous polling in April (26%) and February (26%).
  • A majority of Americans say it is a bad time (63%) to find a quality job in America today; far fewer (36%) say it is a good time to find a quality job.
  • Americans are largely critical of the impact of tariffs on prices. A majority (70%) think the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods are making prices go up. One in four say they are not making much difference (25%).
  • The public remains split on the impact of Trump’s economic policies more broadly. A plurality say Trump’s policies will put the economy on a weaker foundation (43%), compared with 31% who say his policies will put the economy on a stronger foundation. One in five (20%) say it is too soon to say.” Lots more here.