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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Stephen Neukam has a ‘scoop’ in his report that “Democrats lean into shutdown fight with alternative funding plan” at Axios: “Senate Democrats are expected to roll out their own government funding plan on Tuesday, Axios has learned, countering a just-unveiled House GOP proposal.

Why it matters: Democrats want to lay out a clear alternative to the short-term Republican plan as the two sides hunker down for yet another partisan showdown ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline to prevent a government shutdown.

  • The Democratic proposal will include language to prevent President Trump from using rescissions to claw back funding — as he did earlier this year — as well as an extension of Affordable Care subsidies, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.
  • Democratic leaders on both sides of the Capitol on Tuesday poured cold water on a GOP plan, which would fund the government through Nov. 20 and includes increased resources for lawmaker security.
  • Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in a joint statement said the GOP plan “fails to meet the needs of the American people.”

The big picture: Democrats are preparing to make a shutdown fight all about health care, which they bet will win over voters.” More here.

From “Think Big for a Change, Democrats: Call This the “No Kings” Shutdown. The consultants will tell you that taking this stand against Trump is a political loser. But this time is different” by Michael Tomasky at The New Republic: “The Democrats have announced their table stakes with respect to a possible government shutdown. Work with us to extend Obamacare tax credits, they’ve told Republicans, or you won’t get our votes, and the government will be shuttered by the October 1 deadline…There are two good things to say about this. The first is that it sounds now like they’re more willing to roll the dice on a shutdown than they were in March, when Chuck Schumer decided against the move and gave Donald Trump and the Republicans a few Senate votes to avoid a shutdown. It was, under the circumstances, a defensible decision—but it came at a time when Trump and Elon Musk were shredding the federal government. The Democratic base, which desperately wanted their leadership to take a stand, was furious at the result. Famous last words, I know, but Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries seem to understand this today…The second good thing is that there’s substantive merit to the position. The tax credits were extended on a temporary basis by Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2021. They’re due to expire. Their expiration would mean that more than 20 million who receive these subsidies would have to pay more for the health care coverage, in some cases a lot more. So, all that is good…But … why am I yawning? I’m yawning because this plan just sounds so safe and poll-tested. I’m yawning because it is essentially playing defense (again)—and defending something they had already won. And mostly I’m yawning because Donald Trump is not merely a threat to the health care subsidies of a comparatively small minority of Americans—he’s a threat to our way of life, on countless levels.” More here.

In “Trump tramples Reagan’s tough-on-the-Kremlin legacy ahead of UK state visit,” Stephen Collinson writes at CNN Politics: ” Here’s how radically Donald Trump has changed the world, and America’s place in it…The first US president to sleep over at Windsor Castle, Ronald Reagan, was lambasted in Britain in 1982 by protesters who thought he was too tough on the hard men in the Kremlin…Trump, who will this week also stay at the home of England’s monarchs for 900 years, is accused of the opposite: constantly caving to Russia, especially with his latest Ukraine war climbdown…Before leaving for Britain on Tuesday, Trump wriggled out of his most recent deadline to slap punishing sanctions on Moscow. This came despite Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly embarrassing him by raining death on Ukrainian civilians following their Alaska summit last month. Trump left their chat convinced that peace was imminent and his Nobel Peace Prize was closer. Events have exposed his misjudgment…The US president has also been downplaying alarming incursions by Russian drones into NATO nations. His docility in the face of Moscow’s aggression (he suggested the violations might have been a mistake) would have astounded Reagan, whose policies helped the US win the Cold War nearly two-and-a-half decades before Trump trashed the GOP’s hawkish internationalism.”

Trump “posted a letter to NATO members on Truth Social saying he was ready to “do major sanctions on Russia,” Collinson adds. “But there was a caveat — alliance members must stop buying oil exports that bankroll Moscow’s war effort…“I am ready to ‘go’ when you are. Just say when?” Trump wrote…It’s a clever ruse. At first sight, the president’s statement seems inherently reasonable. Why are NATO states still purchasing Russian hydrocarbonsdespite seeing Russia as a mortal threat to their security?…But Trump’s offer was a feint. He established conditions that are unlikely ever to be met, thereby getting him off the hook yet again with Putin, whom he almost never exposes to significant US coercive power…Among the other concessions Trump demanded of NATO members was to join his trade war with China by imposing 50% to 100% tariffs on its goods in order to “break that grip” he says that Beijing has over Moscow. The post ignores the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance and not a trade bloc. And alliance members who themselves have been targeted by Trump’s tariffs, including those on the European Union and Canada, seem unlikely to respond to more bullying. In any case, such moves would likely be disastrous for their economies…Trump’s unwillingness to stand up to Putin — who is constantly seeking to divide the US from its European allies — could create dangerous scenarios…Facing no pushback from the US, Russia is becoming bolder, both on its targeting of missile and drone attacks in Ukraine and with its posture in Eastern Europe. As Trump insists Putin wants peace, Russian missiles have slammed into civilian targets all over Ukraine — hundreds of miles from the frontlines. A US-owned factory was hit, and EU offices in Kyiv were damaged.” Read more here.

One comment on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. Victor on

    All the shutdown talk is more proof that the party leadership is still afraid to confront an activist base that is completely divorced from the political culture of working class people.

    As many people have written, the shutdown is all about the Democrats’ congressional leaders having to do “something” as to not seem passive.

    There is simply no relationship between “defending democracy” and shutting down the government. No matter how much explanations are given. This is “the economy is fine” all over again.

    One need only pay attention to where the calls for shutting down the government are coming from.

    Reply

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